Annual Tournament Predictions: Class 4A
- By Daniel Wantz
- Hickory Husker Varsity Club
- 0 Replies
Fans,
Shown below are my 63rd annual state tournament predictions for Class4A. For 4A, I’ve shown my state champion selection, as well as the top five contenders from each of the two semi-state areas.
Again this year, I’ve hypothetically allocated $100 to each sectional. I then asked myself if I were to bet that amount of money on each sectional, how would I distribute this amount among the teams that I feel have any chance of winning. This provides a better measuring stick for more specifically differentiating the chances of each of the sectional contenders.
Tournament Prediction “History” ---last year I predicted 81% of the sectional games correctly. Sectional champions: I picked only 41 of 64 correctly. For the entire tournament, 2013 was my best year with 81.5% of all games being picked correctly. My worst year was my first year, 1962, when I only got 63.5% of the games correct.
And, as always, a big Thank You to John Harrell’s great website for providing so much useful data in such an easily retrievable format !
Enjoy the games!
Dan
CLASS 4A
Class Champion: Fishers
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Fishers; 2) Kokomo; 3) Noblesville;
the North Semi-State: 4) Westfield; 5) Carmel.
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Lawrence North; 2) Indpls.Cathedral; 3) Ben Davis;
the South Semi-State: 4) Center Grove; 5) Indpls.Attucks.
Here are my predictions for each sectional in 4A along with a few comments.
1. at EAST CHICAGO: East Chicago-$35; Lake Central-30; Merrillville-20; Munster-15.
Comment: An excellent group with five squads well above .500. East Chicago has not
won a sectional since 2017. Lake Central hasn't won since 2018. East Chicago is
playing at home and has beaten the other six teams here. So, I'm picking them.
2. at CHESTERTON: Crown Point-$35; Valpo-30; Chesterton-25; Portage-10.
Comments: Chesterton has won this sectional the last two years, but they're
struggling a bit this year. A semi-final game between Valpo and Crown Point
will likely determine the ultimate champion. CP won by 3 points at Valpo
just a couple of weeks ago.
3. at MISHAWAKA: S.B.Riley-$30; Mishawaka-25; Michigan City-20; LaPorte-15; S.B.Adams-10.
.
4. at ELKHART: Northridge-$35; Warsaw-30; Penn-20; Concord-15.
5. at EAST NOBLE: F.W.North-$35; Carroll-30; East Noble-20; F.W.Snider-15.
Comments: This is a fairly weak group compared to prior years.
6. at HOMESTEAD: F.W.Wayne-$40; Columbia City-35; Homestead-25.
Comments: Last year, Wayne edged Homestead and put an end to the domination that
Homestead had over this field. The latter had won sectionals in 8 of the last 11 years.
Wayne should be able to repeat and it won't be a surprise.
7. at LAFAYETTE: Kokomo-$100.
Comments: Kokomo has beaten all the other teams at this site by a least 15 points.
It's very doubtful that they will be challenged here.
8. at NOBLESVILLE: Fishers-$40; Noblesville-25; Westfield-20; Carmel-15.
Comments: An excellent group here with at least three state title contenders. I'm casting
a shaky vote for Fishers. The Tigers are the best team I've seen this year. On the other hand,
in their 17 years of tourney competition, they've only won 8 games!! So, not much tradition
here to draw upon. Fishers only loss amongst this group was to Carmel. But all the other teams
here have defeated the Greyhounds. Westfield has lost only to Fishers. Noblesville has lost only
to Fishers AND Westfield.
9. at GREENFIELD: Greenfield-$30; Anderson-25; New Palestine-20; Mt.Vernon-15; Richmond-10.
Comments:For many years this group was very weak. But now, this is one of the best sectionals
around when it comes to quality teams potentially playing extremely competitive contests. Greenfield get to play on their home floor this time, which should be a big advantage for them.
10. at LAWRENCE NORTH: Lawrence North-$40; Indpls.Cathedral-35; Indpls.Attucks-25.
Comments: Overall a nice group of teams. Realistically, however, the title will likely boil
down to games involving LN, Attucks, and Cathedral.
11. at SOUTHPORT: Ben Davis-$85; Franklin Central-15.
12. at TERRE HAUTE SOUTH: T.H.North-$35, Brownsburg-30; Plainfield-25, Avon-10.
13. at BLOOMINGTON NORTH: Center Grove -$85; Bloomington South-10; Bloomington North 5.
14. at EAST CENTRAL : Franklin-$40; Whiteland-35; Columbus North-25..
15. at SEYMOUR: Jeffersonville-$35; Seymour-30; New Albany-25; Bedford-10.
Comments: Since the inception of class basketball, the makeup of Sectional 15 has remained
exactly the same. The same 6 teams that started off in this sectional are the ones that are still competing.
Five of these six team have won at least two sectionals. Unfortunately the Seymour Owls have never
won this sectional--even though their arena has hosted most, if not all, of this sectional's battles.
That might change this year. The Owls enter tourney play with an 18-4 record--their best record in
at least 30 years. And they defeated 4 of the other teams in this sectional during the regular season--
losing only to New Albany in an overtime battle in late December. I'm not officially picking the Owls, but
believe this is their best shot in many years. They should be commended for the great season they have
had.
16. at EVANSVILLE NORTH: Evans.Harrison-$40; Jasper-35; Evans. Reitz-25.
,.
Shown below are my 63rd annual state tournament predictions for Class4A. For 4A, I’ve shown my state champion selection, as well as the top five contenders from each of the two semi-state areas.
Again this year, I’ve hypothetically allocated $100 to each sectional. I then asked myself if I were to bet that amount of money on each sectional, how would I distribute this amount among the teams that I feel have any chance of winning. This provides a better measuring stick for more specifically differentiating the chances of each of the sectional contenders.
Tournament Prediction “History” ---last year I predicted 81% of the sectional games correctly. Sectional champions: I picked only 41 of 64 correctly. For the entire tournament, 2013 was my best year with 81.5% of all games being picked correctly. My worst year was my first year, 1962, when I only got 63.5% of the games correct.
And, as always, a big Thank You to John Harrell’s great website for providing so much useful data in such an easily retrievable format !
Enjoy the games!
Dan
CLASS 4A
Class Champion: Fishers
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Fishers; 2) Kokomo; 3) Noblesville;
the North Semi-State: 4) Westfield; 5) Carmel.
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Lawrence North; 2) Indpls.Cathedral; 3) Ben Davis;
the South Semi-State: 4) Center Grove; 5) Indpls.Attucks.
Here are my predictions for each sectional in 4A along with a few comments.
1. at EAST CHICAGO: East Chicago-$35; Lake Central-30; Merrillville-20; Munster-15.
Comment: An excellent group with five squads well above .500. East Chicago has not
won a sectional since 2017. Lake Central hasn't won since 2018. East Chicago is
playing at home and has beaten the other six teams here. So, I'm picking them.
2. at CHESTERTON: Crown Point-$35; Valpo-30; Chesterton-25; Portage-10.
Comments: Chesterton has won this sectional the last two years, but they're
struggling a bit this year. A semi-final game between Valpo and Crown Point
will likely determine the ultimate champion. CP won by 3 points at Valpo
just a couple of weeks ago.
3. at MISHAWAKA: S.B.Riley-$30; Mishawaka-25; Michigan City-20; LaPorte-15; S.B.Adams-10.
.
4. at ELKHART: Northridge-$35; Warsaw-30; Penn-20; Concord-15.
5. at EAST NOBLE: F.W.North-$35; Carroll-30; East Noble-20; F.W.Snider-15.
Comments: This is a fairly weak group compared to prior years.
6. at HOMESTEAD: F.W.Wayne-$40; Columbia City-35; Homestead-25.
Comments: Last year, Wayne edged Homestead and put an end to the domination that
Homestead had over this field. The latter had won sectionals in 8 of the last 11 years.
Wayne should be able to repeat and it won't be a surprise.
7. at LAFAYETTE: Kokomo-$100.
Comments: Kokomo has beaten all the other teams at this site by a least 15 points.
It's very doubtful that they will be challenged here.
8. at NOBLESVILLE: Fishers-$40; Noblesville-25; Westfield-20; Carmel-15.
Comments: An excellent group here with at least three state title contenders. I'm casting
a shaky vote for Fishers. The Tigers are the best team I've seen this year. On the other hand,
in their 17 years of tourney competition, they've only won 8 games!! So, not much tradition
here to draw upon. Fishers only loss amongst this group was to Carmel. But all the other teams
here have defeated the Greyhounds. Westfield has lost only to Fishers. Noblesville has lost only
to Fishers AND Westfield.
9. at GREENFIELD: Greenfield-$30; Anderson-25; New Palestine-20; Mt.Vernon-15; Richmond-10.
Comments:For many years this group was very weak. But now, this is one of the best sectionals
around when it comes to quality teams potentially playing extremely competitive contests. Greenfield get to play on their home floor this time, which should be a big advantage for them.
10. at LAWRENCE NORTH: Lawrence North-$40; Indpls.Cathedral-35; Indpls.Attucks-25.
Comments: Overall a nice group of teams. Realistically, however, the title will likely boil
down to games involving LN, Attucks, and Cathedral.
11. at SOUTHPORT: Ben Davis-$85; Franklin Central-15.
12. at TERRE HAUTE SOUTH: T.H.North-$35, Brownsburg-30; Plainfield-25, Avon-10.
13. at BLOOMINGTON NORTH: Center Grove -$85; Bloomington South-10; Bloomington North 5.
14. at EAST CENTRAL : Franklin-$40; Whiteland-35; Columbus North-25..
15. at SEYMOUR: Jeffersonville-$35; Seymour-30; New Albany-25; Bedford-10.
Comments: Since the inception of class basketball, the makeup of Sectional 15 has remained
exactly the same. The same 6 teams that started off in this sectional are the ones that are still competing.
Five of these six team have won at least two sectionals. Unfortunately the Seymour Owls have never
won this sectional--even though their arena has hosted most, if not all, of this sectional's battles.
That might change this year. The Owls enter tourney play with an 18-4 record--their best record in
at least 30 years. And they defeated 4 of the other teams in this sectional during the regular season--
losing only to New Albany in an overtime battle in late December. I'm not officially picking the Owls, but
believe this is their best shot in many years. They should be commended for the great season they have
had.
16. at EVANSVILLE NORTH: Evans.Harrison-$40; Jasper-35; Evans. Reitz-25.
,.