Fans,
Shown below are my 60th annual state tournament predictions. For each class, I’ve
shown my state champion selection, as well as the top five contenders from each of the
two semi-state areas.
Again this year, I’ve hypothetically allocated $100 to each sectional. I then asked
myself if I were to bet that amount of money on each sectional, how would I
distribute this amount among the teams that I feel have any chance of winning.
This provides a better measuring stick for more specifically differentiating the
chances of each of the sectional contenders. And again this year I’ve also shown my
selection for EVERY sectional game.
Tournament Prediction “History”-----last year I predicted 79% of the sectional games correctly. Sectional champions: I picked 39 of 64 correctly.
In "normal" times, for the entire tournament. 2013 was my best year of all time with 81.5% of all games being picked correctly. My worst year was my first year, 1962, when I only got 63.5% of the games correct.
And, as always, a big Thank You to John Harrell’s great website for providing so much useful data in such an easily retrievable format !
(Note: References to records, winning streaks, etc. are usually based on data as of
February 22nd.)
Enjoy the games!
Dan
----------------------------------------------------
CLASS 3A
Class Champion: Hammond
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Hammond; /2) Mishawaka Marian; 3) So.Bend St.Joe;
the North Semi-State: 4) Ft.Wayne Dwenger; 5) Leo
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Silver Creek; 2) Heritage Hills; 3) North Harrison;
the South Semi-State: 4) Guerin Catholic; 5) Brebeuf
SUMMARY:
The Hammond Wildcats are my choice to win this year's 3A title. It's been a long journey for Hammond to return to basketball prominence. From 1999 through 2012, Hammond won only one sectional. Then Larry Moore, Jr. was hired for the 2012-13 season. Since then, the Wildcats have achieved a record of 135-66. More importantly, they've won three straight sectionals and will be heavy favorites to make it four in a row this year.
Hammond's season started with a one-point loss to 4A title contender Lawrence North. That was impressive in itself. But since then, they've reeled off fifteen straight victories. Included in that figure is a ten point win at Gary West (a bonafide 4A title contender) and a 16 point win at Valparaiso ( a strong favorite to win a 4A sectional). This team can shoot, can defend, they're quick, and have decent depth. It's good to see them become "relevant" force again in high school basketball.
Hammond shouldn't' t have much difficulty on the tourney trail until the championship round of the regional. There, they will likely run into either Mishawaka Marian or South Bend St.Joe--whichever survives sectional 19. That will be a major test. Personally, I think Hammond has too much experience for Marian and too much quickness for St.Joe.
Hammond will be a big favorite over whoever they are much up with in the semi-state round. In a state final contest, Hammond might face 2019 champ Silver Creek. That could be a great game if both teams get there. Other top contenders representing the South are Heritage Hills, North Harrison, and Guerin Catholic.
Here are my predictions for each sectional game in 3A South
*25. at FRANKFORT: Danville-$40; Crawfordsville-35; Greencastle-25.
Comments: This is a nice group of teams. Defending champ Danville, Greencastle, and Crawfordsville are the elite teams here and they are all in the same bracket. These three are all 1-1 in games amongst each other. Crawfordsville won by nine over Greencastle in late November; but Greencastle defeated Danville by nine in late January. And then Danville defeated Crawfordsville by eleven just a few days ago. Here are the picks
Tri-West over Frankfort
Danville over Crawfordsville; Greencastle over North Montgomery
Tri-West over Monrovia; Danville over Greencastle
Danville over Tri-West
*26. at OWEN VALLEY: Northview-$40; Edgewood-35; Owen Valley-15; Brownstown-10.
Edgewood over Brown County
Northview over West Vigo; Owen Valley over Brownstown
Edgewood over South Vermillion; Northview over Owen Valley
Northview over Edgewood
*27. at LEBANON:: Guerin $55; Brebeuf-30; Lebanon-15.
Comments: This looks like another battle between Guerin and defending champ Brebeuf for this sectional title. Guerin won the regular season match by 18 in late January. Probably will be closer this time, but Guerin ranks as a solid favorite. Here are the picks:
Brebeuf over Indpls.Manual; Lebanon over Indpls.Shortridge
Brebeuf over Indpls. Chatard; Guerin Catholic over Lebanon
Guerin Catholic over Brebeuf
*28. at BEECH GROVE : Beech Grove-$40; Indpls.Ritter-35; Indian Creek-25.
Comments: Compared to past years, this is a sort of weak group. BG is the host school
and is the defending champion here. Ritter has played the tougher schedule. During the
year, Ritter won at Beech Grove by two points in mid-February.. Here's my picks:
Beech Grove over Indpls.Washington; Indian Creek over Indpls.Herron
Beech Grove over Indpls. Ritter; Indian Creek over Speedway;
Beech Grove over Indian Creek
*29. at GREENSBURG: Greensburg-$55; Connersville-45.
Comments: Greensburg has won this sectional in 10 of the last 11 years. They will face a big
threat with old rival Connersville. Connersville won at Greenburg by seven points in early January. And Connersville has played a much tougher schedule. I'm still going to go with the host Pirates. Here’s the picks:
Lawrenceburg over South Dearborn
Batesville over Franklin County; Greensburg over Rushville
Connersville over Lawrenceburg; Greensburg over Batesville
Greensburg over Connersville
*30. at CHARLESTOWN: Silver Creek-$75; North Harrison-20; Madison-5.
Comments: It would be a major upset if someone other than Silver Creek won this sectional. But they'll face one of their toughest overall threats with a likely rematch against a strong North Harrison squad. NH beat SC by two points in mid-December. If I'm not mistaken, Trey Kaufman was injured and didn't play in that game. Madison, a decent squad in their own right, is sitting in a good spot by being in a different bracket from SC and NH. Here are the picks:
Silver Creek over Corydon
Madison over Salem; Scottsburg over Charlestown
Silver Creek over; North Harrison; Madison over Scottsburg
Silver Creek over Madison
*31. at WASHINGTON: Sullivan-$60; Princeton-25; Washington-15.
Comments: This is really a weak group. Sullivan has an excellent chance to win their first sectional in ten years. To do so, they will likely have to defeat a great trio of historically significant teams: Washington, Princeton, and Vincennes. Here are my picks:
Sullivan over Washington
Vincennes over Pike Central; Sullivan over Princeton
Sullivan over Vincennes
*32. at BOONVILLE: Heritage Hills-$55; Evans.Bosse-45.
Comments: Bosse and Heritage Hills once again are the class of this field. HH defeated Bosse last year in route to winning this sectional. Bosse, two years ago, defeated HH . Bosse started out strong this year, winning their first 14 games. Since then, they've dropped seven of their last eight games! Here’s the picks:
Heritage Hills over Evansville Memorial; Mt.Vernon over Boonville
Heritage Hills over Evansville Bosse; Mt.Vernon over Gibson Southern
Heritage Hills over Mt.Vernon
Shown below are my 60th annual state tournament predictions. For each class, I’ve
shown my state champion selection, as well as the top five contenders from each of the
two semi-state areas.
Again this year, I’ve hypothetically allocated $100 to each sectional. I then asked
myself if I were to bet that amount of money on each sectional, how would I
distribute this amount among the teams that I feel have any chance of winning.
This provides a better measuring stick for more specifically differentiating the
chances of each of the sectional contenders. And again this year I’ve also shown my
selection for EVERY sectional game.
Tournament Prediction “History”-----last year I predicted 79% of the sectional games correctly. Sectional champions: I picked 39 of 64 correctly.
In "normal" times, for the entire tournament. 2013 was my best year of all time with 81.5% of all games being picked correctly. My worst year was my first year, 1962, when I only got 63.5% of the games correct.
And, as always, a big Thank You to John Harrell’s great website for providing so much useful data in such an easily retrievable format !
(Note: References to records, winning streaks, etc. are usually based on data as of
February 22nd.)
Enjoy the games!
Dan
----------------------------------------------------
CLASS 3A
Class Champion: Hammond
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Hammond; /2) Mishawaka Marian; 3) So.Bend St.Joe;
the North Semi-State: 4) Ft.Wayne Dwenger; 5) Leo
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Silver Creek; 2) Heritage Hills; 3) North Harrison;
the South Semi-State: 4) Guerin Catholic; 5) Brebeuf
SUMMARY:
The Hammond Wildcats are my choice to win this year's 3A title. It's been a long journey for Hammond to return to basketball prominence. From 1999 through 2012, Hammond won only one sectional. Then Larry Moore, Jr. was hired for the 2012-13 season. Since then, the Wildcats have achieved a record of 135-66. More importantly, they've won three straight sectionals and will be heavy favorites to make it four in a row this year.
Hammond's season started with a one-point loss to 4A title contender Lawrence North. That was impressive in itself. But since then, they've reeled off fifteen straight victories. Included in that figure is a ten point win at Gary West (a bonafide 4A title contender) and a 16 point win at Valparaiso ( a strong favorite to win a 4A sectional). This team can shoot, can defend, they're quick, and have decent depth. It's good to see them become "relevant" force again in high school basketball.
Hammond shouldn't' t have much difficulty on the tourney trail until the championship round of the regional. There, they will likely run into either Mishawaka Marian or South Bend St.Joe--whichever survives sectional 19. That will be a major test. Personally, I think Hammond has too much experience for Marian and too much quickness for St.Joe.
Hammond will be a big favorite over whoever they are much up with in the semi-state round. In a state final contest, Hammond might face 2019 champ Silver Creek. That could be a great game if both teams get there. Other top contenders representing the South are Heritage Hills, North Harrison, and Guerin Catholic.
Here are my predictions for each sectional game in 3A South
*25. at FRANKFORT: Danville-$40; Crawfordsville-35; Greencastle-25.
Comments: This is a nice group of teams. Defending champ Danville, Greencastle, and Crawfordsville are the elite teams here and they are all in the same bracket. These three are all 1-1 in games amongst each other. Crawfordsville won by nine over Greencastle in late November; but Greencastle defeated Danville by nine in late January. And then Danville defeated Crawfordsville by eleven just a few days ago. Here are the picks
Tri-West over Frankfort
Danville over Crawfordsville; Greencastle over North Montgomery
Tri-West over Monrovia; Danville over Greencastle
Danville over Tri-West
*26. at OWEN VALLEY: Northview-$40; Edgewood-35; Owen Valley-15; Brownstown-10.
Edgewood over Brown County
Northview over West Vigo; Owen Valley over Brownstown
Edgewood over South Vermillion; Northview over Owen Valley
Northview over Edgewood
*27. at LEBANON:: Guerin $55; Brebeuf-30; Lebanon-15.
Comments: This looks like another battle between Guerin and defending champ Brebeuf for this sectional title. Guerin won the regular season match by 18 in late January. Probably will be closer this time, but Guerin ranks as a solid favorite. Here are the picks:
Brebeuf over Indpls.Manual; Lebanon over Indpls.Shortridge
Brebeuf over Indpls. Chatard; Guerin Catholic over Lebanon
Guerin Catholic over Brebeuf
*28. at BEECH GROVE : Beech Grove-$40; Indpls.Ritter-35; Indian Creek-25.
Comments: Compared to past years, this is a sort of weak group. BG is the host school
and is the defending champion here. Ritter has played the tougher schedule. During the
year, Ritter won at Beech Grove by two points in mid-February.. Here's my picks:
Beech Grove over Indpls.Washington; Indian Creek over Indpls.Herron
Beech Grove over Indpls. Ritter; Indian Creek over Speedway;
Beech Grove over Indian Creek
*29. at GREENSBURG: Greensburg-$55; Connersville-45.
Comments: Greensburg has won this sectional in 10 of the last 11 years. They will face a big
threat with old rival Connersville. Connersville won at Greenburg by seven points in early January. And Connersville has played a much tougher schedule. I'm still going to go with the host Pirates. Here’s the picks:
Lawrenceburg over South Dearborn
Batesville over Franklin County; Greensburg over Rushville
Connersville over Lawrenceburg; Greensburg over Batesville
Greensburg over Connersville
*30. at CHARLESTOWN: Silver Creek-$75; North Harrison-20; Madison-5.
Comments: It would be a major upset if someone other than Silver Creek won this sectional. But they'll face one of their toughest overall threats with a likely rematch against a strong North Harrison squad. NH beat SC by two points in mid-December. If I'm not mistaken, Trey Kaufman was injured and didn't play in that game. Madison, a decent squad in their own right, is sitting in a good spot by being in a different bracket from SC and NH. Here are the picks:
Silver Creek over Corydon
Madison over Salem; Scottsburg over Charlestown
Silver Creek over; North Harrison; Madison over Scottsburg
Silver Creek over Madison
*31. at WASHINGTON: Sullivan-$60; Princeton-25; Washington-15.
Comments: This is really a weak group. Sullivan has an excellent chance to win their first sectional in ten years. To do so, they will likely have to defeat a great trio of historically significant teams: Washington, Princeton, and Vincennes. Here are my picks:
Sullivan over Washington
Vincennes over Pike Central; Sullivan over Princeton
Sullivan over Vincennes
*32. at BOONVILLE: Heritage Hills-$55; Evans.Bosse-45.
Comments: Bosse and Heritage Hills once again are the class of this field. HH defeated Bosse last year in route to winning this sectional. Bosse, two years ago, defeated HH . Bosse started out strong this year, winning their first 14 games. Since then, they've dropped seven of their last eight games! Here’s the picks:
Heritage Hills over Evansville Memorial; Mt.Vernon over Boonville
Heritage Hills over Evansville Bosse; Mt.Vernon over Gibson Southern
Heritage Hills over Mt.Vernon
