Fans,
Shown below are my 60th annual state tournament predictions. For each class, I’ve
shown my state champion selection, as well as the top five contenders from each of the
two semi-state areas.
Again this year, I’ve hypothetically allocated $100 to each sectional. I then asked
myself if I were to bet that amount of money on each sectional, how would I
distribute this amount among the teams that I feel have any chance of winning.
This provides a better measuring stick for more specifically differentiating the
chances of each of the sectional contenders. And again this year I’ve also shown my
selection for EVERY sectional game.
Tournament Prediction “History”-----last year I predicted 79% of the sectional games correctly. Sectional champions: I picked 39 of 64 correctly. In "normal" times, for the entire tournament. 2013 was my best year of all time with 81.5% of all games being picked correctly. My worst year was my first year, 1962, when I only got 63.5% of the games correct.
And, as always, a big Thank You to John Harrell’s great website for providing so much useful data in such an easily retrievable format !
(Note: References to records, winning streaks, etc. are usually based on data as of
February 22nd.)
Enjoy the games!
Dan
CLASS 1A
Class Champion: Barr-Reeve
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Kouts; 2) Gary 21st Century; 3) Covington;
the North Semi-State: 4) Lafayette Central Catholic; 5) Southwood
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Barr-Reeve; 2)Indpls.Tindley; 3) Loogootee;
the South Semi-State: 4) North Daviess; 5) Bloomfield
SUMMARY:
My choice to win the 1A title this year is the Barr-Reeve Vikings. I'm sure this selection won't surprise much of anyone. BR has had a great season and it's been accomplished against the 4th ranked schedule (per Sagarin) played by 1A schools. Their only losses this year are two overtime losses against Carmel and Ft.Wayne Blackhawk--two strong contenders for the 4A and 2A crowns respectively.
The Vikings toughest tourney obstacles are most likely at the sectional level where they'll probably have to deal with old rivals Loogootee and North Davies. Both of those squads are also strong contenders for the 1A title. Regional play could be much easier with Edinburgh the most likely contender. A strong test might present itself in the semi-state in the form of Indianapolis Tindley. Tindley has a modest record but it's been achieved against a very rugged schedule. At Bankers Life Fieldhouse, the Vikings would likely face Kouts or Gary 21st Century--whichever team emerges from Sectional 49.
Barr-Reeve's only class title was in 2015 when they won the 1A title. In 2019, they were defeated by Ft.Wayne Blackhawk in the 1A title game. Blackhawk has since moved on to 2A tourney competition.
Here are my predictions and for each sectional game in 1A---along with some occasional comments
*49. at KOUTS.: Kouts-$55; Gary 21st Century-45
Comments: This is a tough one. Kouts has had a great season. 21st has a terrible record but only one of their losses was against a 1A school--and that was a narrow one point loss to Kouts. But that game was in Gary. This one, if they meet, will be at Kouts. A very shaky vote here for the home team. Here are my choices:
Washington Twp over Covenant Christian; Kouts over Hammond Science & Tech.
Gary 21st Century over Washington Twp.; Kouts over Morgan Twp.
Kouts over Gary 21st Century
*50. at CULVER:: Argos-$60; Triton-40.
Argos over LaCrosse; Triton over West Central
Argos over Culver; Triton over Oregon-Davis
Argos over Triton
*51. at BETHANY CHRISTIAN: Bethany Christian-$50; Fremont-30; Elkhart Christian-20; _____________________________Lakewood Park-10.
Lakewood Park over Hamilton
Bethany Christian over Elkhart Christian; Fremont over Lakewood Park
Bethany Christian over Fremont
*52. at TRI-COUNTY: North White-$70; Pioneer-20; Caston-10.
Caston over South Newton; Pioneer over Frontier
Caston over Tri-County; North White over Pioneer
North White over Caston
*53. at NORTH MIAMI: Southwood-$60; Northfield-40.
Southwood over Southern Wells; Lakeland Christian over Smith Academy
Southwood over North Miami; Northfield over Lakeland Christian
Southwood over Northfield
*54. at ATTICA: Covington-$55; Lafayette CC-45.
Comments: It's been a tough year for the Central Catholic Knights. Baring a long run
in the tournament, they will end up with a losing record for the first time in at least 28
years. After winning 156 straight sectionals, they've lost in the sectional round two of
the last three years. Still, with their outstanding schedule, they and defending champ
Covington are the heavy favorites here once again. Here's the picks:
Faith Christian over Clinton Central; Attica over North Vermillion
Lafayette CC over Faith Christian; Covington over Attica
Covington over Lafayette CC
*55. at WES-DEL: Liberty Christian-$65, Tri-Central-20; Cowan-10; Wes-Del-5;.
Liberty Christian over Wes-Del; Tri-Central over Daleville
Liberty Christian over Anderson Prep; Tri-Central over Cowan
Liberty Christian over Tri-Central
*56. at RANDOLPH SOUTHERN: Blue River-$40; Seton Catholic-30; Randolph Sou.-20;
_______________________________Union City-10.
Tri over Union ; Seton Catholic over Randolph Southern
Blue River over Tri; over Union City
Blue River over Seton Catholic
*57. at CLAY CITY: Bloomfield-$90; North Central-10.
White River Valley over Bloomington Lighthouse
North Central over Eminence; Bloomfield over Clay City
Shakamak over White River Valley; Bloomfield over North Central
Bloomfield over Shakamak
*58. at INDPLS.METROPOLITAN: Indy Metro-$35; Traders Point-30; Bethesda
________________________________ Christian-20; International-15.
Bethesda Christian over International; Traders Point over Indiana Math & Science
Indpls.Metropolitan over Bethesda Christian; Traders Point over Indiana Deaf School
Indpls.Metropolitan over Traders Point
*59. at INDIANAPOLIS LUTHERAN: Indpls.Tindley-$60; Greenwood Christian-30; __________________________________Indpls.Lutheran-10.
Indpls.Tindley over Greenwood Christian
Providence Cristo Rey over Victory Prep; Indpls.Lutheran over Christel House Acad.
Indpls.Tindley over Central Christian; Indpls.Lutheran over Providence Cristo Rey
Indpls.Tindley over Indpls.Lutheran
*60. at SOUTHWESTERN (SHELBY): Morristown-$50; Jac-Cen-Del-40; Southwestern-10.
Morristown over Oldenburg Academy
Rising Sun over Waldron; Southwestern over Hauser
Morristown over Jac-Cen-Del; Southwestern over Rising Sun
Morristown over Southwestern
*61. at BORDEN: Borden-$35; Lanesville-30; Christian Academy-20;Rock Creek Acad.-15.
Christian Academy over Rock Creek Academy; Lanesville over New Washington
Borden over Christian Academy; Lanesville over South Central
Borden over Lanesville
*62. at WEST WASHINGTON: Edinburgh-$65; Trinity Lutheran-25; West Washington-10.
West Washington over Shawe Memorial; Trinity Lutheran over Crothersville
West Washington over Medora; Edinburgh over Trinity Lutheran
Edinburgh over West Washington
*63. at NORTH DAVIESS: Barr-Reeve-$45; Loogootee-30; North Daviess-25.
Comments: Barr-Reeve is the choice of many to win the state's 1A title. If they are destined to be stopped, it's this sectional that is the most likely place they might stumble. Old rivals Loogootee and North Daviess, excellent squads in their own right, are both chomping at the bit for another shot at BR. Loogootee came within three points in their mid-January battle while ND came within one point the next night. BR has played a much tougher schedule than the other two
prime contenders. Here are my picks:
Orleans over Shoals; Barr-Reeve over Washington Catholic
Loogootee over Orleans; Barr-Reeve over North Daviess
Barr-Reeve over Loogootee
*64. at WOOD MEMORIAL: NE Dubois-$40; Springs Valley-30; Evansville Day-20;
__________________________Wood Memorial-10.
Wood Memorial over Cannelton; NE Dubois over Evansville Day
Wood Memorial over Vincennes Rivet; NE Dubois over Springs Valley
NE Dubois over Wood Memorial
Shown below are my 60th annual state tournament predictions. For each class, I’ve
shown my state champion selection, as well as the top five contenders from each of the
two semi-state areas.
Again this year, I’ve hypothetically allocated $100 to each sectional. I then asked
myself if I were to bet that amount of money on each sectional, how would I
distribute this amount among the teams that I feel have any chance of winning.
This provides a better measuring stick for more specifically differentiating the
chances of each of the sectional contenders. And again this year I’ve also shown my
selection for EVERY sectional game.
Tournament Prediction “History”-----last year I predicted 79% of the sectional games correctly. Sectional champions: I picked 39 of 64 correctly. In "normal" times, for the entire tournament. 2013 was my best year of all time with 81.5% of all games being picked correctly. My worst year was my first year, 1962, when I only got 63.5% of the games correct.
And, as always, a big Thank You to John Harrell’s great website for providing so much useful data in such an easily retrievable format !
(Note: References to records, winning streaks, etc. are usually based on data as of
February 22nd.)
Enjoy the games!
Dan
CLASS 1A
Class Champion: Barr-Reeve
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Kouts; 2) Gary 21st Century; 3) Covington;
the North Semi-State: 4) Lafayette Central Catholic; 5) Southwood
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Barr-Reeve; 2)Indpls.Tindley; 3) Loogootee;
the South Semi-State: 4) North Daviess; 5) Bloomfield
SUMMARY:
My choice to win the 1A title this year is the Barr-Reeve Vikings. I'm sure this selection won't surprise much of anyone. BR has had a great season and it's been accomplished against the 4th ranked schedule (per Sagarin) played by 1A schools. Their only losses this year are two overtime losses against Carmel and Ft.Wayne Blackhawk--two strong contenders for the 4A and 2A crowns respectively.
The Vikings toughest tourney obstacles are most likely at the sectional level where they'll probably have to deal with old rivals Loogootee and North Davies. Both of those squads are also strong contenders for the 1A title. Regional play could be much easier with Edinburgh the most likely contender. A strong test might present itself in the semi-state in the form of Indianapolis Tindley. Tindley has a modest record but it's been achieved against a very rugged schedule. At Bankers Life Fieldhouse, the Vikings would likely face Kouts or Gary 21st Century--whichever team emerges from Sectional 49.
Barr-Reeve's only class title was in 2015 when they won the 1A title. In 2019, they were defeated by Ft.Wayne Blackhawk in the 1A title game. Blackhawk has since moved on to 2A tourney competition.
Here are my predictions and for each sectional game in 1A---along with some occasional comments
*49. at KOUTS.: Kouts-$55; Gary 21st Century-45
Comments: This is a tough one. Kouts has had a great season. 21st has a terrible record but only one of their losses was against a 1A school--and that was a narrow one point loss to Kouts. But that game was in Gary. This one, if they meet, will be at Kouts. A very shaky vote here for the home team. Here are my choices:
Washington Twp over Covenant Christian; Kouts over Hammond Science & Tech.
Gary 21st Century over Washington Twp.; Kouts over Morgan Twp.
Kouts over Gary 21st Century
*50. at CULVER:: Argos-$60; Triton-40.
Argos over LaCrosse; Triton over West Central
Argos over Culver; Triton over Oregon-Davis
Argos over Triton
*51. at BETHANY CHRISTIAN: Bethany Christian-$50; Fremont-30; Elkhart Christian-20; _____________________________Lakewood Park-10.
Lakewood Park over Hamilton
Bethany Christian over Elkhart Christian; Fremont over Lakewood Park
Bethany Christian over Fremont
*52. at TRI-COUNTY: North White-$70; Pioneer-20; Caston-10.
Caston over South Newton; Pioneer over Frontier
Caston over Tri-County; North White over Pioneer
North White over Caston
*53. at NORTH MIAMI: Southwood-$60; Northfield-40.
Southwood over Southern Wells; Lakeland Christian over Smith Academy
Southwood over North Miami; Northfield over Lakeland Christian
Southwood over Northfield
*54. at ATTICA: Covington-$55; Lafayette CC-45.
Comments: It's been a tough year for the Central Catholic Knights. Baring a long run
in the tournament, they will end up with a losing record for the first time in at least 28
years. After winning 156 straight sectionals, they've lost in the sectional round two of
the last three years. Still, with their outstanding schedule, they and defending champ
Covington are the heavy favorites here once again. Here's the picks:
Faith Christian over Clinton Central; Attica over North Vermillion
Lafayette CC over Faith Christian; Covington over Attica
Covington over Lafayette CC
*55. at WES-DEL: Liberty Christian-$65, Tri-Central-20; Cowan-10; Wes-Del-5;.
Liberty Christian over Wes-Del; Tri-Central over Daleville
Liberty Christian over Anderson Prep; Tri-Central over Cowan
Liberty Christian over Tri-Central
*56. at RANDOLPH SOUTHERN: Blue River-$40; Seton Catholic-30; Randolph Sou.-20;
_______________________________Union City-10.
Tri over Union ; Seton Catholic over Randolph Southern
Blue River over Tri; over Union City
Blue River over Seton Catholic
*57. at CLAY CITY: Bloomfield-$90; North Central-10.
White River Valley over Bloomington Lighthouse
North Central over Eminence; Bloomfield over Clay City
Shakamak over White River Valley; Bloomfield over North Central
Bloomfield over Shakamak
*58. at INDPLS.METROPOLITAN: Indy Metro-$35; Traders Point-30; Bethesda
________________________________ Christian-20; International-15.
Bethesda Christian over International; Traders Point over Indiana Math & Science
Indpls.Metropolitan over Bethesda Christian; Traders Point over Indiana Deaf School
Indpls.Metropolitan over Traders Point
*59. at INDIANAPOLIS LUTHERAN: Indpls.Tindley-$60; Greenwood Christian-30; __________________________________Indpls.Lutheran-10.
Indpls.Tindley over Greenwood Christian
Providence Cristo Rey over Victory Prep; Indpls.Lutheran over Christel House Acad.
Indpls.Tindley over Central Christian; Indpls.Lutheran over Providence Cristo Rey
Indpls.Tindley over Indpls.Lutheran
*60. at SOUTHWESTERN (SHELBY): Morristown-$50; Jac-Cen-Del-40; Southwestern-10.
Morristown over Oldenburg Academy
Rising Sun over Waldron; Southwestern over Hauser
Morristown over Jac-Cen-Del; Southwestern over Rising Sun
Morristown over Southwestern
*61. at BORDEN: Borden-$35; Lanesville-30; Christian Academy-20;Rock Creek Acad.-15.
Christian Academy over Rock Creek Academy; Lanesville over New Washington
Borden over Christian Academy; Lanesville over South Central
Borden over Lanesville
*62. at WEST WASHINGTON: Edinburgh-$65; Trinity Lutheran-25; West Washington-10.
West Washington over Shawe Memorial; Trinity Lutheran over Crothersville
West Washington over Medora; Edinburgh over Trinity Lutheran
Edinburgh over West Washington
*63. at NORTH DAVIESS: Barr-Reeve-$45; Loogootee-30; North Daviess-25.
Comments: Barr-Reeve is the choice of many to win the state's 1A title. If they are destined to be stopped, it's this sectional that is the most likely place they might stumble. Old rivals Loogootee and North Daviess, excellent squads in their own right, are both chomping at the bit for another shot at BR. Loogootee came within three points in their mid-January battle while ND came within one point the next night. BR has played a much tougher schedule than the other two
prime contenders. Here are my picks:
Orleans over Shoals; Barr-Reeve over Washington Catholic
Loogootee over Orleans; Barr-Reeve over North Daviess
Barr-Reeve over Loogootee
*64. at WOOD MEMORIAL: NE Dubois-$40; Springs Valley-30; Evansville Day-20;
__________________________Wood Memorial-10.
Wood Memorial over Cannelton; NE Dubois over Evansville Day
Wood Memorial over Vincennes Rivet; NE Dubois over Springs Valley
NE Dubois over Wood Memorial
