Good morning.
Shown below are my selections for this weekend's semi-state games, along
with some comments. Most of the historical info referenced was derived from John Harrell's great web site.
Regional Prediction Results: The "upset bug" took a severe toll on ol' Dan last week.
I picked only 8 of the 16 regional winners correctly for 50%. For all games played, I selected 32 out of 48 games correctly for 67%. Overall, just a "so so" result.
Have a great day and enjoy the games.
Dan
Class A at Lafayette: Marquette Catholic over Liberty Christian........... by 4 points
* Marquette has played a much more difficult schedule than Liberty.
* Marquette has won 14 of their last 15 games; LC 16 of their last 18.
* Marquette is the defending 1A champion. They defeated LC by 11
points in last year's semi-state.
* This might be the best game of the day. LC gave Marquette all they
could handle for three quarters last year. I expect this one to be close
all the way. Both are worthy participants the following week at
Bankers Life. I'll continue to go with the defending champs as long
as they are still alive. They have Ryan Fazekas. No one else in 1A does.
Class A at Seymour: Barr-Reeve over Clay City....................................by 16 points
* This is a rematch of last year's semi-state which BR won 75-55.
* BR has played a much tougher schedule than Clay City.
* BR has won 18 games in a row while CC has won 16 of 17.
* May be a low-scoring game since BR gives up only 38 ppg; CC
allows 48 ppg.
* It might be to CC's advantage to have played BR last year. They are
less likely to be intimidated this time around, plus BR might come
in a little bit over confident. Regardless, BR should eventually pull
away in this game.
Class 2A at Lafayette: Frankton over Hammond Noll..........................by 5 points
* Noll has played a much tougher schedule than Frankton.
* Frankton has won 15 of their last 16 games. Noll has won just 4
straight--which is their longest streak of the year!
* Frankton is making their first-ever semi-state appearance. It is Noll's
first appearance since 2011--which they won.
* Time and time again, Noll has proven that their tough schedule (by
2A standards) gives them a big advantage come tourney time. They
had a sub-par regular season, but here they are anyway. I believe
they'll hang in there with Frankton, but the Eagles should be good
enough to squeak by.
Class 2A at Southport: Park-Tudor over Linton .................................by 16 points
* PTs schedule has been far more demanding than Linton's.
* PT only allows 44 ppg; Linton gives up just 46.
* PT is the defending 2A champion and is making their 5th semi-state
appearance in the last six years. Linton is making their 2nd appearance
in three years at the semi-state level.
* PT has won 14 of their last 15 games; Linton has won 12 of their last 13
* Linton is a nice team that has really been playing well the last several
weeks. Still, Tudor is just on another level when compared to other 2A
competition. About Linton's only hope is that PT comes into the game
flat and over confident.
Class 3A at Huntington: Ft.Wayne Dwenger over Griffith..................by 3 points
* Dwenger's schedule has been much more tougher than Griffith's.
* Griffith has won 13 of their last 15. Dwenger has won nine in a row
after losing 7 of 8.
* This is Griffith's first semi-state trip. Dwenger is participating for
the second straight year.
* Perhaps the most difficult game to predict in this year's semi-state action.
Dwenger, similar to Hammond Noll, benefits from a much tougher schedule
than most of their 3A counterparts. Griffith has been quite impressive after
their suspension. Tempo will be the key here. If Dwenger can slow the pace of
the game, it should give them a big advantage. On the other hand, if Griffith
gets off to a good start, they may have an opportunity to win this game handily.
Class 3A at Southport: Guerin Catholic over Vincennes.....................by 6 points
* Guerin's schedule has been a bit more difficult than has Vincennes.
* Guerin has won 8 of their last 9, while Vincennes has won 14 of 16.
* Guerin was in the semi-state last year and also in 2012. Vincennes
is in their first semi-state since 1997.
* Ironically, Guerin was arguably a much stronger team last year than they
are this year. But with a weakened 3A class this year, their chances of winning
a 3A title are much greater than last year. Their tough schedule should help
them get by a Vincennes squad that is a bit of a surprise to be here. This could be
a close one.
Class 4A at Huntington: Homestead over South Bend Riley...............by 18 points
* Riley gives up 67 ppg--the most of any team still playing.
* Homestead's schedule has been a little bit tougher than Riley's.
* Homestead played in a semi-state last year while Riley's last trip
was in 2008.
* Riley has won six straight after losing five straight.
Riley's young squad is a huge surprise to be here. With nothing to lose, they
could be a dangerous opponent, at least for awhile, against a Homestead team
that has a tendency to play to the level of their competition.
Class 4A at Seymour: Evansville Reitz over Richmond......................by 10 points
* Reitz is in their first semi-state since 1968 ! Richmond hasn't been
here since 1992--when they won the state championship.
* Both teams have played very difficult schedules.
* Richmond has won 25 of their last 26 games.
* Great comeback by Reitz last week against New Albany. And congrats to the
Richmond Red Devils for finally getting over the hump against strong Indy-area
competition. Neither of these teams have great size. Both are very quick and force a lot of turnovers. The
difference here, in my opinion, will be that Reitz has much more offensive firepower than does Richmond.
This could be an exciting helter-skelter type of game.
Shown below are my selections for this weekend's semi-state games, along
with some comments. Most of the historical info referenced was derived from John Harrell's great web site.
Regional Prediction Results: The "upset bug" took a severe toll on ol' Dan last week.
I picked only 8 of the 16 regional winners correctly for 50%. For all games played, I selected 32 out of 48 games correctly for 67%. Overall, just a "so so" result.
Have a great day and enjoy the games.
Dan
Class A at Lafayette: Marquette Catholic over Liberty Christian........... by 4 points
* Marquette has played a much more difficult schedule than Liberty.
* Marquette has won 14 of their last 15 games; LC 16 of their last 18.
* Marquette is the defending 1A champion. They defeated LC by 11
points in last year's semi-state.
* This might be the best game of the day. LC gave Marquette all they
could handle for three quarters last year. I expect this one to be close
all the way. Both are worthy participants the following week at
Bankers Life. I'll continue to go with the defending champs as long
as they are still alive. They have Ryan Fazekas. No one else in 1A does.
Class A at Seymour: Barr-Reeve over Clay City....................................by 16 points
* This is a rematch of last year's semi-state which BR won 75-55.
* BR has played a much tougher schedule than Clay City.
* BR has won 18 games in a row while CC has won 16 of 17.
* May be a low-scoring game since BR gives up only 38 ppg; CC
allows 48 ppg.
* It might be to CC's advantage to have played BR last year. They are
less likely to be intimidated this time around, plus BR might come
in a little bit over confident. Regardless, BR should eventually pull
away in this game.
Class 2A at Lafayette: Frankton over Hammond Noll..........................by 5 points
* Noll has played a much tougher schedule than Frankton.
* Frankton has won 15 of their last 16 games. Noll has won just 4
straight--which is their longest streak of the year!
* Frankton is making their first-ever semi-state appearance. It is Noll's
first appearance since 2011--which they won.
* Time and time again, Noll has proven that their tough schedule (by
2A standards) gives them a big advantage come tourney time. They
had a sub-par regular season, but here they are anyway. I believe
they'll hang in there with Frankton, but the Eagles should be good
enough to squeak by.
Class 2A at Southport: Park-Tudor over Linton .................................by 16 points
* PTs schedule has been far more demanding than Linton's.
* PT only allows 44 ppg; Linton gives up just 46.
* PT is the defending 2A champion and is making their 5th semi-state
appearance in the last six years. Linton is making their 2nd appearance
in three years at the semi-state level.
* PT has won 14 of their last 15 games; Linton has won 12 of their last 13
* Linton is a nice team that has really been playing well the last several
weeks. Still, Tudor is just on another level when compared to other 2A
competition. About Linton's only hope is that PT comes into the game
flat and over confident.
Class 3A at Huntington: Ft.Wayne Dwenger over Griffith..................by 3 points
* Dwenger's schedule has been much more tougher than Griffith's.
* Griffith has won 13 of their last 15. Dwenger has won nine in a row
after losing 7 of 8.
* This is Griffith's first semi-state trip. Dwenger is participating for
the second straight year.
* Perhaps the most difficult game to predict in this year's semi-state action.
Dwenger, similar to Hammond Noll, benefits from a much tougher schedule
than most of their 3A counterparts. Griffith has been quite impressive after
their suspension. Tempo will be the key here. If Dwenger can slow the pace of
the game, it should give them a big advantage. On the other hand, if Griffith
gets off to a good start, they may have an opportunity to win this game handily.
Class 3A at Southport: Guerin Catholic over Vincennes.....................by 6 points
* Guerin's schedule has been a bit more difficult than has Vincennes.
* Guerin has won 8 of their last 9, while Vincennes has won 14 of 16.
* Guerin was in the semi-state last year and also in 2012. Vincennes
is in their first semi-state since 1997.
* Ironically, Guerin was arguably a much stronger team last year than they
are this year. But with a weakened 3A class this year, their chances of winning
a 3A title are much greater than last year. Their tough schedule should help
them get by a Vincennes squad that is a bit of a surprise to be here. This could be
a close one.
Class 4A at Huntington: Homestead over South Bend Riley...............by 18 points
* Riley gives up 67 ppg--the most of any team still playing.
* Homestead's schedule has been a little bit tougher than Riley's.
* Homestead played in a semi-state last year while Riley's last trip
was in 2008.
* Riley has won six straight after losing five straight.
Riley's young squad is a huge surprise to be here. With nothing to lose, they
could be a dangerous opponent, at least for awhile, against a Homestead team
that has a tendency to play to the level of their competition.
Class 4A at Seymour: Evansville Reitz over Richmond......................by 10 points
* Reitz is in their first semi-state since 1968 ! Richmond hasn't been
here since 1992--when they won the state championship.
* Both teams have played very difficult schedules.
* Richmond has won 25 of their last 26 games.
* Great comeback by Reitz last week against New Albany. And congrats to the
Richmond Red Devils for finally getting over the hump against strong Indy-area
competition. Neither of these teams have great size. Both are very quick and force a lot of turnovers. The
difference here, in my opinion, will be that Reitz has much more offensive firepower than does Richmond.
This could be an exciting helter-skelter type of game.
