Fans,
Shown below are my annual pre-season rankings for the 2017-18 season for Class 4A. Also included are a few brief comments about many of the higher-ranked squads.
These rankings are based on a formula I've developed over the years that places emphasis on each team's record for the past year combined with the number of key players they have returning along with the actual number of points returning. Strength of schedule is also a strong consideration. One aspect that is NOT considered is attempting to evaluate players who rarely played at the varsity level during this past season.
This formula usually works in a majority of cases but occasionally “misses the boat” on some others. I developed it so that my own personal biases do not enter into the final rankings. These rankings are usually more indicative of a team’s strength at the start of the season as opposed to how they might finish.
Most of the info used for this analysis was derived from the following sources:
* Coaches from 117 schools
* www.maxpreps.com, the IHSAA-endorsed statistical service, provided usable data for 250 schools.
* E.T.Pearl’s excellent website which provides complete statistical info for 62 schools in North Central Indiana. See etpearl.homestead.com./
* subscribing to five different newspapers
* researching the websites of several other papers and basketball websites.
A big Thank You to everyone who provided information.
For each school, the info below shows this past year's record along with the number of key players and points returning. Where a + is shown, that means that a key player is returning for whom I do not have statistical information.
The “Power Rating” is shown for each school so that readers can see how each of the ranked schools compared with each other. If two or more teams have the same power rating, the number of points returning is used as a “tie breaker.”
One additional note. Unless otherwise known, these evaluations assume all players stay at the school they were at last year. In this day and age, that’s not a very safe assumption anymore, but I don’t’ know of any other way to deal with it, especially at this early date.
If you know of a team that you feel should be ranked, don’t hesitate to let me know (Dan.Wantz@yahoo.com). It’s possible that I did not have enough information to properly consider them.
And lastly, a big Thank You as always to John Harrell’s great website for all of the easily accessible historical info that I often reference in these write-ups.
Enjoy,
Daniel Wantz
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CLASS 4A’s TOP 20 TEAMS
(For each ranked team, their 2017 record is shown along with the number of
key players returning and the cumulative ppg represented by those players.)
______________________2017___#Key Players &___Power
Rank___Team_________Record__PPG Returning___Rating
01_New Albany____________25-4______6______41++++___175
02_Center Grove___________ 17-8_____ 4______31+______ 166
03_Bloomington North______12-10_____6______58_______ 164
04_Lawrence North_________17-10_____5______18++++___163
05_Brownsburg____________18-7______4______35_______ 161
06_Zionsville______________18-7______5______42_______ 159
07_Fort Wayne North_______ 26-3______3_____ 31_______ 158
08_Indianapolis Cathedral____15-9______4_____ 37_______ 156
09_South Bend Riley________19-3______5______49_______153
10_Pike___________________16-8______4______27_______153
11_Pendleton Heights_______ 17-7______5______44_______152
12_Bloomington South______ 22-5_____ 4______36_______152
13_Carmel________________ 22-5______4______17++_____151
14_Ben Davis______________22-5______2______21_______ 150
15_Indianapolis Roncalli_____17-9______6______36_______ 148
16_Carroll (Fort Wayne)_____ 13-10_____5______36_______ 148
17_Hamilton Southeastern___ 21-6______4______23_______ 148
18_Shelbyville_____________18-7______ 4______33++_____147
19_Fort Wayne Wayne______ 11-12_____ 6_____ 55_______144
20_Floyd Central___________19-5______ 3______32_______144
Projecting ahead, let’s take a look at the Top 40 ranked teams sorted by each sectional. Last year’s record and next year’s Power Rating are also shown.
SECTIONAL 1
40_Munster______________13-12________123
SECTIONAL 2
24_Chesterton__________ __16-9________138
31_Merrillville____________ 21-8________135
SECTIONAL 3
09_South Bend Riley______ 19-3________153
34_South Bend Adams_____21-5________132
SECTIONAL 4
48_Plymouth_____________15-10_______116
SECTIONAL 5
07_Ft.Wayne North_______ 26- 3________158
16_Carroll (Allen Co.)_____ 13-10_______ 148
33_Ft.Wayne Snider_______17-7_________134
SECTIONAL 6
19_Ft.Wayne Wayne______11-12________144
23_Ft.Wayne South_______5-14_________141
27_Homestead___________ 23-4_________138
SECTIONAL 7
06_Zionsville___________ 18-7_________159
25_McCutcheon_________23-3_________138
35_Kokomo____________ 18-7_________130
38_Harrison____________ 13-11________127
SECTIONAL 8
13_Carmel_____________ 22-5_________151
17_Hamilton Southeastern_21-6________ 148
22_Fishers_____________ 10-14________ 142
SECTIONAL 9
11_Pendleton Hgts._______17-7________152
SECTIONAL 10
04_Lawrence North______17-10________163
08_Indpls.Cathedral______15-9_________156
28_Warren Central______ 21-3_________ 138
30_Lawrence Central_____10-11________136
32_No.Central (Marion Co.)_23-5_______135
SECTIONAL 11
10_Pike_______________16-8__________153
14_Ben Davis__________22-5__________150
15_Roncalli____________17-9_________ 148
21_Decatur Central_____ 8-13__________143
SECTIONAL 12
05_Brownsburg_________18-7__________161
26_Terre Haute South___ 19-8__________138
SECTIONAL 13
02_Center Grove________17-8__________166
37_Whiteland__________ 15-8__________129
39_Greenwood_________ 11-13_________129
SECTIONAL 14
03_Bloomington North__ 12-10_________164
12_Bloomington South__ 22-5__________152
18_Shelbyville__________18-7__________147
SECTIONAL 15
01_New Albany________ 25-4__________175
20_Floyd Central_______ 19-5__________144
SECTIONAL 16
29_Evansville Harrison__ 13-10__________136
36_Castle______________24-4__________ 130
Now, here’s a closer look at the Top 10 teams in 4A. Unless stated otherwise, all players are seniors. Those 6’ 3 or taller have their height mentioned, if known. Scoring average is shown in parentheses. Rebound and/or assist average is also shown where known and relevant.
01_New Albany
Last year, the Bulldogs were unable to repeat as 4A champions, losing a tight regional final to a strong Castle squad. 6'5 Romeo Langford (29.0), an All-State selection last year, returns for his final season. He should be joined again by Sean East (12.4), 6'3 Julien Hunter, 6'4 Blake Murphy, Savion Southers, and junior Derrick Stevenson.
The Bulldogs will likely receive a major challenge from old rival Floyd Central in sectional play. If they survive that test, Center Grove and one of the Bloomington schools will likely be a big obstacle at the regional level.
02_Center Grove
Coach Zach Hahn has done a great job with this very young Center Grove team. Some may think they're a year away from title contention. I think they'll be a legitimate contender for both of the next two years. They are led by 6'8 junior Trayce Jackson-Davis (12.2, 9 rpg). He was a Soph All-State selection last year. Classmates Spencer Piercefield (12.1) and Ben Nicoson should also return. 6'3 Nate McLain (7.0) is also a major contributor. A 17-4 JV squad should fill any voids the Trojans might have. CG should be a solid favorite in Sectional 13. At the regional level, New Albany or Floyd Central as well as one of the Bloomington schools will likely be standing in the way.
Shown below are my annual pre-season rankings for the 2017-18 season for Class 4A. Also included are a few brief comments about many of the higher-ranked squads.
These rankings are based on a formula I've developed over the years that places emphasis on each team's record for the past year combined with the number of key players they have returning along with the actual number of points returning. Strength of schedule is also a strong consideration. One aspect that is NOT considered is attempting to evaluate players who rarely played at the varsity level during this past season.
This formula usually works in a majority of cases but occasionally “misses the boat” on some others. I developed it so that my own personal biases do not enter into the final rankings. These rankings are usually more indicative of a team’s strength at the start of the season as opposed to how they might finish.
Most of the info used for this analysis was derived from the following sources:
* Coaches from 117 schools
* www.maxpreps.com, the IHSAA-endorsed statistical service, provided usable data for 250 schools.
* E.T.Pearl’s excellent website which provides complete statistical info for 62 schools in North Central Indiana. See etpearl.homestead.com./
* subscribing to five different newspapers
* researching the websites of several other papers and basketball websites.
A big Thank You to everyone who provided information.
For each school, the info below shows this past year's record along with the number of key players and points returning. Where a + is shown, that means that a key player is returning for whom I do not have statistical information.
The “Power Rating” is shown for each school so that readers can see how each of the ranked schools compared with each other. If two or more teams have the same power rating, the number of points returning is used as a “tie breaker.”
One additional note. Unless otherwise known, these evaluations assume all players stay at the school they were at last year. In this day and age, that’s not a very safe assumption anymore, but I don’t’ know of any other way to deal with it, especially at this early date.
If you know of a team that you feel should be ranked, don’t hesitate to let me know (Dan.Wantz@yahoo.com). It’s possible that I did not have enough information to properly consider them.
And lastly, a big Thank You as always to John Harrell’s great website for all of the easily accessible historical info that I often reference in these write-ups.
Enjoy,
Daniel Wantz
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CLASS 4A’s TOP 20 TEAMS
(For each ranked team, their 2017 record is shown along with the number of
key players returning and the cumulative ppg represented by those players.)
______________________2017___#Key Players &___Power
Rank___Team_________Record__PPG Returning___Rating
01_New Albany____________25-4______6______41++++___175
02_Center Grove___________ 17-8_____ 4______31+______ 166
03_Bloomington North______12-10_____6______58_______ 164
04_Lawrence North_________17-10_____5______18++++___163
05_Brownsburg____________18-7______4______35_______ 161
06_Zionsville______________18-7______5______42_______ 159
07_Fort Wayne North_______ 26-3______3_____ 31_______ 158
08_Indianapolis Cathedral____15-9______4_____ 37_______ 156
09_South Bend Riley________19-3______5______49_______153
10_Pike___________________16-8______4______27_______153
11_Pendleton Heights_______ 17-7______5______44_______152
12_Bloomington South______ 22-5_____ 4______36_______152
13_Carmel________________ 22-5______4______17++_____151
14_Ben Davis______________22-5______2______21_______ 150
15_Indianapolis Roncalli_____17-9______6______36_______ 148
16_Carroll (Fort Wayne)_____ 13-10_____5______36_______ 148
17_Hamilton Southeastern___ 21-6______4______23_______ 148
18_Shelbyville_____________18-7______ 4______33++_____147
19_Fort Wayne Wayne______ 11-12_____ 6_____ 55_______144
20_Floyd Central___________19-5______ 3______32_______144
Projecting ahead, let’s take a look at the Top 40 ranked teams sorted by each sectional. Last year’s record and next year’s Power Rating are also shown.
SECTIONAL 1
40_Munster______________13-12________123
SECTIONAL 2
24_Chesterton__________ __16-9________138
31_Merrillville____________ 21-8________135
SECTIONAL 3
09_South Bend Riley______ 19-3________153
34_South Bend Adams_____21-5________132
SECTIONAL 4
48_Plymouth_____________15-10_______116
SECTIONAL 5
07_Ft.Wayne North_______ 26- 3________158
16_Carroll (Allen Co.)_____ 13-10_______ 148
33_Ft.Wayne Snider_______17-7_________134
SECTIONAL 6
19_Ft.Wayne Wayne______11-12________144
23_Ft.Wayne South_______5-14_________141
27_Homestead___________ 23-4_________138
SECTIONAL 7
06_Zionsville___________ 18-7_________159
25_McCutcheon_________23-3_________138
35_Kokomo____________ 18-7_________130
38_Harrison____________ 13-11________127
SECTIONAL 8
13_Carmel_____________ 22-5_________151
17_Hamilton Southeastern_21-6________ 148
22_Fishers_____________ 10-14________ 142
SECTIONAL 9
11_Pendleton Hgts._______17-7________152
SECTIONAL 10
04_Lawrence North______17-10________163
08_Indpls.Cathedral______15-9_________156
28_Warren Central______ 21-3_________ 138
30_Lawrence Central_____10-11________136
32_No.Central (Marion Co.)_23-5_______135
SECTIONAL 11
10_Pike_______________16-8__________153
14_Ben Davis__________22-5__________150
15_Roncalli____________17-9_________ 148
21_Decatur Central_____ 8-13__________143
SECTIONAL 12
05_Brownsburg_________18-7__________161
26_Terre Haute South___ 19-8__________138
SECTIONAL 13
02_Center Grove________17-8__________166
37_Whiteland__________ 15-8__________129
39_Greenwood_________ 11-13_________129
SECTIONAL 14
03_Bloomington North__ 12-10_________164
12_Bloomington South__ 22-5__________152
18_Shelbyville__________18-7__________147
SECTIONAL 15
01_New Albany________ 25-4__________175
20_Floyd Central_______ 19-5__________144
SECTIONAL 16
29_Evansville Harrison__ 13-10__________136
36_Castle______________24-4__________ 130
Now, here’s a closer look at the Top 10 teams in 4A. Unless stated otherwise, all players are seniors. Those 6’ 3 or taller have their height mentioned, if known. Scoring average is shown in parentheses. Rebound and/or assist average is also shown where known and relevant.
01_New Albany
Last year, the Bulldogs were unable to repeat as 4A champions, losing a tight regional final to a strong Castle squad. 6'5 Romeo Langford (29.0), an All-State selection last year, returns for his final season. He should be joined again by Sean East (12.4), 6'3 Julien Hunter, 6'4 Blake Murphy, Savion Southers, and junior Derrick Stevenson.
The Bulldogs will likely receive a major challenge from old rival Floyd Central in sectional play. If they survive that test, Center Grove and one of the Bloomington schools will likely be a big obstacle at the regional level.
02_Center Grove
Coach Zach Hahn has done a great job with this very young Center Grove team. Some may think they're a year away from title contention. I think they'll be a legitimate contender for both of the next two years. They are led by 6'8 junior Trayce Jackson-Davis (12.2, 9 rpg). He was a Soph All-State selection last year. Classmates Spencer Piercefield (12.1) and Ben Nicoson should also return. 6'3 Nate McLain (7.0) is also a major contributor. A 17-4 JV squad should fill any voids the Trojans might have. CG should be a solid favorite in Sectional 13. At the regional level, New Albany or Floyd Central as well as one of the Bloomington schools will likely be standing in the way.
