Fans,
Shown below are my 60th annual state tournament predictions. For each class, I’ve
shown my state champion selection, as well as the top five contenders from each of the
two semi-state areas.
Again this year, I’ve hypothetically allocated $100 to each sectional. I then asked
myself if I were to bet that amount of money on each sectional, how would I
distribute this amount among the teams that I feel have any chance of winning.
This provides a better measuring stick for more specifically differentiating the
chances of each of the sectional contenders. And again this year I’ve also shown my
selection for EVERY sectional game.
Tournament Prediction “History”-----last year I predicted 79% of the sectional games correctly. Sectional champions: I picked 39 of 64 correctly. In "normal" times, for the entire tournament. 2013 was my best year of all time with 81.5% of all games being picked correctly. My worst year was my first year, 1962, when I only got 63.5% of the games correct.
And, as always, a big Thank You to John Harrell’s great website for providing so much useful data in such an easily retrievable format !
(Note: References to records, winning streaks, etc. are usually based on data as of
February 22nd.)
Enjoy the games!
Dan
CLASS 4A
Class Champion: ____________________Indpls.Cathedral
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Carmel; 2) Homestead; 3)Gary West;
the North Semi-State: _______4) South Bend Adams; 5) Valparaiso
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Indpls.Cathedral; 2) Lawrence North; 3) Warren
the South Semi-State: Central; 4) Ben Davis; 5) Indpls.Attucks
SUMMARY:
I am casting a very shaky vote for the Irish of Indianapolis Cathedral to win this year's 4A state championship. As far as Cathedral is concerned, their first sectional game against Lawrence North may ultimately turn out to be the true state title game in 4A. The survivor of this game then likely has to meet up with Warren Central. If they survive that, they will find Attucks or North Central waiting for them. Both are very capable squads in their own right.
The regional level would likely be much easier for LC. They might face an improving Ben Davis squad and then either Playfield or Brownsburg.
It's hard to tell who their opponent might be at the semi-state level. Regardless, Cathedral would be a big favorite.
In the finals, Cathedral would face either Carmel or Homestead. The Irish had great games against both during the regular season. Should be a great game. So, in summary, for 4A I think there are four premiere teams: Cathedral, Lawrence North, Carmel, and Homestead. Any game involving two of those should be a major attraction!
Here are my predictions for each sectional game in 4A along with a few comments.
*9. at RICHMOND: New Palestine-$35; Mt.Vernon-30; Anderson-25; Greenfield[-10.
Comments: Lots of parity here with this group. And lots of great rivalries. But not much in the way of teams that might have an impact on the overall 4A tournament. New Pal has won this tournament the last two years and has a good shot at defending their crown. Mt.Vernon has played a much tougher schedule. NP defeated Vernon by four points just a few days ago. Here are the picks:
Anderson over Muncie Central
Mt.Vernon over Richmond; New Palestine over Greenfield
Anderson over Pendleton;New Palestine over Mt.Vernon
New Palestine over Anderson
*10. at LAWRENCE CENTRAL Indpls.Cathedral-$30; Lawrence North-25; Warren
_____________________________Central-20; North Central-15; Indpls.Attucks-10.
Comments: Over the years, this sectional is often touted as the toughest in the state. That is definitely the case this year. I believe there are three bonafide state title contenders here and at least three other solid teams as well. I'm picking Cathedral. I like their quickness size, and perhaps, most importantly, their depth. Their win a few weeks ago AT Carmel was the convincer for me. Warren Central might be in a good spot assuming they can get by Lawrence Central in their opener. WC might catch the winner of the LN-Cathedral matchup in a bit of a down mood, which might be to WC's advantage. And don't forget North Central. They received a great draw. It wouldn't be that much of a shock it they won the whole thing here. And Attucks, when they are on their game, can play with anyone.
Back to Cathedral. The biggest "knock" against them is their history. They have not won a sectional since 2013. Even more incredible is they have lost six sectional games in a row and eight of their last nine. And talk about tough luck--seven of these losses were by a combined total of 27 points. That's got to be weighing on them mentally. Can they overcome it? We'll see!
Here are the picks:
Indpls.Attucks over Indpls.Tech
Indpls. Cathedral over Lawrence North; Warren Central over Lawrence Central
North Central over Indpls. Attucks; Indpls. Cathedral over Warren Central
Indpls. Cathedral over North Central
*11. at DECATUR CENTRAL: Ben Davis-$40; Pike-35; Perry Meridian-25.
Comments . This is a much weaker group than normal. Ben Davis, Pike, and Perry Meridian have all had their moments but none are likely to make much noise in the regional round even if they get there. During the year, BD defeated Pike by four points in early December. And Pike beat Perry by eight in late December. Over the last 21 years, BD or Pike has garnered this title on all but three occasions. So picking them to play in the title game makes a lot of sense. Here are the picks:
Indpls.Roncalli over Southport; Pike over Perry Meridian
Ben Davis over Indpls.Roncalli; Pike over Decatur Central
Ben Davis over Pike
*12. at AVON: Plainfield-$50; Brownsburg-45; Terre Haute North-5.
Comments: Plainfield has not won a sectional since 1999. Their tournament losses over the
last three years has been by a combined margin of only eleven points. This might be one of their best chances to grab a trophy. Incredibly, they and Brownsburg have not played yet this year. . Here are the picks:
Brownsburg over Mooresville; Plainfield over Terre Haute North
Brownsburg over Terre Haute South; Plainfield over Avon
Plainfield over Brownsburg
*13. at WHITELAND: Center Grove -$60; Franklin Central-25; Greenwood-15.
Comments: Greenwood is the defending champs but I believe a decent Center Grove squad, based on their strong schedule, deserves the favorites tag. Franklin Central is my second choice for the very same reason. Both CG and FC defeated Greenwood during the season. Here are the picks:
Greenwood over Franklin; Center Grove over Franklin Central
Greenwood over Whiteland; Center Grove over Shelbyville
Center Grove over Greenwood
*14. at BLOOMINGTON SOUTH: Bloom.South-$45; Bloom.North-40; Columbus North-15.
Comments: Bloomington North has lost ten straight games to city rival South--including four sectional games. Had they played earlier in the year, there is a good chance North would've won.. However, South has continued to improve as the year progressed while North has had a lot of games canceled due to Corona Virus concerns. At this point, South now appears to be the best bet should they play each other in this sectional's finale. And don't forget Columbus North. All four of their losses have been to highly regarded Indy-area teams. They are very capable of winning here as well. Here are the picks:
Bloomington South over East Central; Bloomington North over Columbus North
Bloomington South over Martinsville; Bloomington North over Columbus East
Bloomington South over Bloomington North
*15. at SEYMOUR: New Albany-$35; Floyd Central-30; Jeffersonville-25; Jennings Co.-10.
Comments: Boy, this is a tough one. While not as strong as some past years, this group of teams are all very capable. Except for Seymour, all of the other five squads have won at least two games against others in this sectional. And even Seymour has reached a double-figure win total for the first time in many years. During the year, New Albany edged Floyd Central. Floyd, in turn, won at Jeffersonville. and NA won at Jeff as well. Don't forget Jennings County. Earlier this month, they edged both New Albany and Floyd Central ! Here are the picks:
Bedford over Seymour; Jeffersonville over Jennings County
New Albany over Bedford; Floyd Central over Jeffersonville
New Albany over Floyd Central
*16. at EVANSVILLE NORTH: Castle-45; Evans.Reitz-30;Evans.North-20;Evans.Harrison-5.
Comments: This group is a bit weaker than normal. But, there still should be some great games here. Reitz and North have been the most consistent this year. And Castle's record is misleading due to the difficult schedule they play. Defending champ Reitz defeated North by five points in mid-January. Castle swamped Reitz by 17 points just a few days ago. Here are the picks:
Castle over Evansville North; Jasper over Evansville Central
Castle over Evansville Reitz; Evansville Harrison over Jasper
Castle over Evansville Harrison
Shown below are my 60th annual state tournament predictions. For each class, I’ve
shown my state champion selection, as well as the top five contenders from each of the
two semi-state areas.
Again this year, I’ve hypothetically allocated $100 to each sectional. I then asked
myself if I were to bet that amount of money on each sectional, how would I
distribute this amount among the teams that I feel have any chance of winning.
This provides a better measuring stick for more specifically differentiating the
chances of each of the sectional contenders. And again this year I’ve also shown my
selection for EVERY sectional game.
Tournament Prediction “History”-----last year I predicted 79% of the sectional games correctly. Sectional champions: I picked 39 of 64 correctly. In "normal" times, for the entire tournament. 2013 was my best year of all time with 81.5% of all games being picked correctly. My worst year was my first year, 1962, when I only got 63.5% of the games correct.
And, as always, a big Thank You to John Harrell’s great website for providing so much useful data in such an easily retrievable format !
(Note: References to records, winning streaks, etc. are usually based on data as of
February 22nd.)
Enjoy the games!
Dan
CLASS 4A
Class Champion: ____________________Indpls.Cathedral
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Carmel; 2) Homestead; 3)Gary West;
the North Semi-State: _______4) South Bend Adams; 5) Valparaiso
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Indpls.Cathedral; 2) Lawrence North; 3) Warren
the South Semi-State: Central; 4) Ben Davis; 5) Indpls.Attucks
SUMMARY:
I am casting a very shaky vote for the Irish of Indianapolis Cathedral to win this year's 4A state championship. As far as Cathedral is concerned, their first sectional game against Lawrence North may ultimately turn out to be the true state title game in 4A. The survivor of this game then likely has to meet up with Warren Central. If they survive that, they will find Attucks or North Central waiting for them. Both are very capable squads in their own right.
The regional level would likely be much easier for LC. They might face an improving Ben Davis squad and then either Playfield or Brownsburg.
It's hard to tell who their opponent might be at the semi-state level. Regardless, Cathedral would be a big favorite.
In the finals, Cathedral would face either Carmel or Homestead. The Irish had great games against both during the regular season. Should be a great game. So, in summary, for 4A I think there are four premiere teams: Cathedral, Lawrence North, Carmel, and Homestead. Any game involving two of those should be a major attraction!
Here are my predictions for each sectional game in 4A along with a few comments.
*9. at RICHMOND: New Palestine-$35; Mt.Vernon-30; Anderson-25; Greenfield[-10.
Comments: Lots of parity here with this group. And lots of great rivalries. But not much in the way of teams that might have an impact on the overall 4A tournament. New Pal has won this tournament the last two years and has a good shot at defending their crown. Mt.Vernon has played a much tougher schedule. NP defeated Vernon by four points just a few days ago. Here are the picks:
Anderson over Muncie Central
Mt.Vernon over Richmond; New Palestine over Greenfield
Anderson over Pendleton;New Palestine over Mt.Vernon
New Palestine over Anderson
*10. at LAWRENCE CENTRAL Indpls.Cathedral-$30; Lawrence North-25; Warren
_____________________________Central-20; North Central-15; Indpls.Attucks-10.
Comments: Over the years, this sectional is often touted as the toughest in the state. That is definitely the case this year. I believe there are three bonafide state title contenders here and at least three other solid teams as well. I'm picking Cathedral. I like their quickness size, and perhaps, most importantly, their depth. Their win a few weeks ago AT Carmel was the convincer for me. Warren Central might be in a good spot assuming they can get by Lawrence Central in their opener. WC might catch the winner of the LN-Cathedral matchup in a bit of a down mood, which might be to WC's advantage. And don't forget North Central. They received a great draw. It wouldn't be that much of a shock it they won the whole thing here. And Attucks, when they are on their game, can play with anyone.
Back to Cathedral. The biggest "knock" against them is their history. They have not won a sectional since 2013. Even more incredible is they have lost six sectional games in a row and eight of their last nine. And talk about tough luck--seven of these losses were by a combined total of 27 points. That's got to be weighing on them mentally. Can they overcome it? We'll see!
Here are the picks:
Indpls.Attucks over Indpls.Tech
Indpls. Cathedral over Lawrence North; Warren Central over Lawrence Central
North Central over Indpls. Attucks; Indpls. Cathedral over Warren Central
Indpls. Cathedral over North Central
*11. at DECATUR CENTRAL: Ben Davis-$40; Pike-35; Perry Meridian-25.
Comments . This is a much weaker group than normal. Ben Davis, Pike, and Perry Meridian have all had their moments but none are likely to make much noise in the regional round even if they get there. During the year, BD defeated Pike by four points in early December. And Pike beat Perry by eight in late December. Over the last 21 years, BD or Pike has garnered this title on all but three occasions. So picking them to play in the title game makes a lot of sense. Here are the picks:
Indpls.Roncalli over Southport; Pike over Perry Meridian
Ben Davis over Indpls.Roncalli; Pike over Decatur Central
Ben Davis over Pike
*12. at AVON: Plainfield-$50; Brownsburg-45; Terre Haute North-5.
Comments: Plainfield has not won a sectional since 1999. Their tournament losses over the
last three years has been by a combined margin of only eleven points. This might be one of their best chances to grab a trophy. Incredibly, they and Brownsburg have not played yet this year. . Here are the picks:
Brownsburg over Mooresville; Plainfield over Terre Haute North
Brownsburg over Terre Haute South; Plainfield over Avon
Plainfield over Brownsburg
*13. at WHITELAND: Center Grove -$60; Franklin Central-25; Greenwood-15.
Comments: Greenwood is the defending champs but I believe a decent Center Grove squad, based on their strong schedule, deserves the favorites tag. Franklin Central is my second choice for the very same reason. Both CG and FC defeated Greenwood during the season. Here are the picks:
Greenwood over Franklin; Center Grove over Franklin Central
Greenwood over Whiteland; Center Grove over Shelbyville
Center Grove over Greenwood
*14. at BLOOMINGTON SOUTH: Bloom.South-$45; Bloom.North-40; Columbus North-15.
Comments: Bloomington North has lost ten straight games to city rival South--including four sectional games. Had they played earlier in the year, there is a good chance North would've won.. However, South has continued to improve as the year progressed while North has had a lot of games canceled due to Corona Virus concerns. At this point, South now appears to be the best bet should they play each other in this sectional's finale. And don't forget Columbus North. All four of their losses have been to highly regarded Indy-area teams. They are very capable of winning here as well. Here are the picks:
Bloomington South over East Central; Bloomington North over Columbus North
Bloomington South over Martinsville; Bloomington North over Columbus East
Bloomington South over Bloomington North
*15. at SEYMOUR: New Albany-$35; Floyd Central-30; Jeffersonville-25; Jennings Co.-10.
Comments: Boy, this is a tough one. While not as strong as some past years, this group of teams are all very capable. Except for Seymour, all of the other five squads have won at least two games against others in this sectional. And even Seymour has reached a double-figure win total for the first time in many years. During the year, New Albany edged Floyd Central. Floyd, in turn, won at Jeffersonville. and NA won at Jeff as well. Don't forget Jennings County. Earlier this month, they edged both New Albany and Floyd Central ! Here are the picks:
Bedford over Seymour; Jeffersonville over Jennings County
New Albany over Bedford; Floyd Central over Jeffersonville
New Albany over Floyd Central
*16. at EVANSVILLE NORTH: Castle-45; Evans.Reitz-30;Evans.North-20;Evans.Harrison-5.
Comments: This group is a bit weaker than normal. But, there still should be some great games here. Reitz and North have been the most consistent this year. And Castle's record is misleading due to the difficult schedule they play. Defending champ Reitz defeated North by five points in mid-January. Castle swamped Reitz by 17 points just a few days ago. Here are the picks:
Castle over Evansville North; Jasper over Evansville Central
Castle over Evansville Reitz; Evansville Harrison over Jasper
Castle over Evansville Harrison
