Fans,
Shown below are my 60th annual state tournament predictions. For each class, I’ve
shown my state champion selection, as well as the top five contenders from each of the
two semi-state areas.
Again this year, I’ve hypothetically allocated $100 to each sectional. I then asked
myself if I were to bet that amount of money on each sectional, how would I
distribute this amount among the teams that I feel have any chance of winning.
This provides a better measuring stick for more specifically differentiating the
chances of each of the sectional contenders. And again this year I’ve also shown my
selection for EVERY sectional game.
Tournament Prediction “History”-----last year I predicted 79% of the sectional games correctly. Sectional champions: I picked 39 of 64 correctly. In "normal" times, for the entire tournament. 2013 was my best year of all time with 81.5% of all games being picked correctly. My worst year was my first year, 1962, when I only got 63.5% of the games correct.
And, as always, a big Thank You to John Harrell’s great website for providing so much useful data in such an easily retrievable format !
(Note: References to records, winning streaks, etc. are usually based on data as of
February 22nd.)
Enjoy the games!
Dan
CLASS 4A
Class Champion: Indpls.Cathedral
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Carmel; 2) Homestead; 3)Gary West;
the North Semi-State: 4) South Bend Adams; 5) Valparaiso
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Indpls.Cathedral; 2) Lawrence North; 3) Warren
the South Semi-State: Central; 4) Ben Davis; 5) Indpls.Attucks
SUMMARY:
I am casting a very shaky vote for the Irish of Indianapolis Cathedral to win this year's 4A state championship. As far as Cathedral is concerned, their first sectional game against Lawrence North may ultimately turn out to be the true state title game in 4A. The survivor of this game then likely has to meet up with Warren Central. If they survive that, they will find Attucks or North Central waiting for them. Both are very capable squads in their own right.
The regional level would likely be much easier for LC. They might face an improving Ben Davis squad and then either Playfield or Brownsburg.
It's hard to tell who their opponent might be at the semi-state level. Regardless, Cathedral would be a big favorite.
In the finals, Cathedral would face either Carmel or Homestead. The Irish had great games against both during the regular season. Should be a great game. So, in summary, for 4A I think there are four premiere teams: Cathedral, Lawrence North, Carmel, and Homestead. Any game involving two of those should be a major attraction!
Here are my predictions for each sectional game in 4A along with a few comments.
*1. at GARY WEST: Gary West-$70; Munster-30.
Comments: The West-side Cougars are one of the best teams I've seen this year. They rate as huge favorites at this site and will be enjoying the homecourt advantage as well. They defeated Munster by 16 points, at Munster, just a few days ago. Here are the picks:
Highland over Hammond Morton
Gary West over Merrillville; Lake Central over East Chicago
Munster over Highland; Gary West over Lake Central
Gary West over Munster
*2. at CHESTERTON: Valpo-$60; Chesterton-25; Crown Point-15.
Comments: Great longtime rivalries are featured here. Valpo has emerged as the solid choice here given their recent lopsided wins over Crown Point (11 point margin) and Chesterton (22 points). It would seem that complacency and overconfidence are the only things that might derail them. Here are the picks:
Portage over Hobart; Valparaiso over Chesterton
Lowell over Portage; Valparaiso over Crown Point
Valparaiso over Lowell
*3. at PLYMOUTH: S.B.Adams-$75; S.B.Riley-15; Michigan City-10
Comments: A lot of decent teams here which normally would make for a real competitive tourney. That might not be the case however. The Adams Eagles have dominated this group of teams in regular season play. They have also played a tougher schedule than the rest of the group. It would be a major upset if they do not win this sectional. Here’s the picks:
Michigan City over Culver Academy
Mishawaka over LaPorte; South Bend Adams over Plymouth
South Bend Riley over Michigan City; South Bend Adams over Mishawaka
South Bend Adams over South Bend Riley
*4. at ELKHART: Northridge-$35; Warsaw-30; Elkhart-25; Penn-10.
Comments: As usual there is lots of parity among this group of old rivals. Defending champ Northridge, along with Elkhart and Warsaw appear to be the best bets at this site. Warsaw won by 15 over Northridge in early January. And they won at Elkhart by a single point
in late January. Elkhart, however, owns a two point win over Northridge in early December. Among these three, Elkhart has played by far the tougher schedule. Here’s the picks:
Penn over Goshen; Elkhart over Concord
Northridge over Penn; Warsaw over Elkhart
Northridge over Warsaw
*5. at EAST NOBLE: Carroll-$50; F.W.Snider-35; F.W.North-15.
Comments: Old foes Carroll and F.W.Snider are again the main contenders at this site. Snider won last year. Carroll is in a bit of a tournament slump, having not won a sectional since 2016. During the year, Carroll won by two points at Snider in late January. Here are the picks:
Carroll over Ft.Wayne Northrop; Ft.Wayne Snider over DeKalb
Carroll over Ft.Wayne North; Ft.Wayne Snider over East Noble
Carroll over Ft.Wayne Snider
*6. at FORT WAYNE WAYNE: Homestead-$90, New Haven-10.
Comments: After winning six sectionals in seven years, Homestead has been upset in the last two. An upset this year would be an even larger shock. Their only viable competition would appear to be New Haven--who upset them last year. However, Homestead routed them by thirty points in mid-December, so that is too big of a reversal to realistically expect. Here are the picks:
Homestead over Huntington; Ft.Wayne Wayne over Columbia City
Homestead over Ft.Wayne South; New Haven over Ft.Wayne Wayne
Homestead over New Haven
*7. at MARION: Lafayette Jeff-$35; McCutcheon-30; Marion-25; Harrison-10.
Comments: A real interesting group here. All six are NCC schools. Three are from Tippecanoe County. All have played each other during the season. Should be some real competitive games here. Marion has the home floor advantage and is the defending champ. Jeff has been highly rated all year. But they lost at McCutcheon by eight points earlier this month. McCutcheon might be the most surprisingly good team in the state. Here are the picks:
Lafayette Jeff over Marion; Logansport over Kokomo
Lafayette Jeff over Harrison; McCutcheon over Logansport
Lafayette Jeff over McCutcheon
*8. at CARMEL: Carmel-$70, Fishers-15; Westfield-10; Zionsville-5.
Comments Is this the year that someone other than Carmel wins this sectional? I seriously doubt it. The Greyhounds, as they often do, seem to be peaking at the right time. Plus, they will have homecourt advantage and they also drew a bye! All of the other squads here are also very capable and there should be some really tight games here. But, Carmel appears to be more than ready to meet any challenge. Here are the picks:
Fishers over Hamilton SE; Westfield over Zionsville
Carmel over Fishers; Westfield over Noblesville
Carmel over Westfield
Shown below are my 60th annual state tournament predictions. For each class, I’ve
shown my state champion selection, as well as the top five contenders from each of the
two semi-state areas.
Again this year, I’ve hypothetically allocated $100 to each sectional. I then asked
myself if I were to bet that amount of money on each sectional, how would I
distribute this amount among the teams that I feel have any chance of winning.
This provides a better measuring stick for more specifically differentiating the
chances of each of the sectional contenders. And again this year I’ve also shown my
selection for EVERY sectional game.
Tournament Prediction “History”-----last year I predicted 79% of the sectional games correctly. Sectional champions: I picked 39 of 64 correctly. In "normal" times, for the entire tournament. 2013 was my best year of all time with 81.5% of all games being picked correctly. My worst year was my first year, 1962, when I only got 63.5% of the games correct.
And, as always, a big Thank You to John Harrell’s great website for providing so much useful data in such an easily retrievable format !
(Note: References to records, winning streaks, etc. are usually based on data as of
February 22nd.)
Enjoy the games!
Dan
CLASS 4A
Class Champion: Indpls.Cathedral
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Carmel; 2) Homestead; 3)Gary West;
the North Semi-State: 4) South Bend Adams; 5) Valparaiso
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Indpls.Cathedral; 2) Lawrence North; 3) Warren
the South Semi-State: Central; 4) Ben Davis; 5) Indpls.Attucks
SUMMARY:
I am casting a very shaky vote for the Irish of Indianapolis Cathedral to win this year's 4A state championship. As far as Cathedral is concerned, their first sectional game against Lawrence North may ultimately turn out to be the true state title game in 4A. The survivor of this game then likely has to meet up with Warren Central. If they survive that, they will find Attucks or North Central waiting for them. Both are very capable squads in their own right.
The regional level would likely be much easier for LC. They might face an improving Ben Davis squad and then either Playfield or Brownsburg.
It's hard to tell who their opponent might be at the semi-state level. Regardless, Cathedral would be a big favorite.
In the finals, Cathedral would face either Carmel or Homestead. The Irish had great games against both during the regular season. Should be a great game. So, in summary, for 4A I think there are four premiere teams: Cathedral, Lawrence North, Carmel, and Homestead. Any game involving two of those should be a major attraction!
Here are my predictions for each sectional game in 4A along with a few comments.
*1. at GARY WEST: Gary West-$70; Munster-30.
Comments: The West-side Cougars are one of the best teams I've seen this year. They rate as huge favorites at this site and will be enjoying the homecourt advantage as well. They defeated Munster by 16 points, at Munster, just a few days ago. Here are the picks:
Highland over Hammond Morton
Gary West over Merrillville; Lake Central over East Chicago
Munster over Highland; Gary West over Lake Central
Gary West over Munster
*2. at CHESTERTON: Valpo-$60; Chesterton-25; Crown Point-15.
Comments: Great longtime rivalries are featured here. Valpo has emerged as the solid choice here given their recent lopsided wins over Crown Point (11 point margin) and Chesterton (22 points). It would seem that complacency and overconfidence are the only things that might derail them. Here are the picks:
Portage over Hobart; Valparaiso over Chesterton
Lowell over Portage; Valparaiso over Crown Point
Valparaiso over Lowell
*3. at PLYMOUTH: S.B.Adams-$75; S.B.Riley-15; Michigan City-10
Comments: A lot of decent teams here which normally would make for a real competitive tourney. That might not be the case however. The Adams Eagles have dominated this group of teams in regular season play. They have also played a tougher schedule than the rest of the group. It would be a major upset if they do not win this sectional. Here’s the picks:
Michigan City over Culver Academy
Mishawaka over LaPorte; South Bend Adams over Plymouth
South Bend Riley over Michigan City; South Bend Adams over Mishawaka
South Bend Adams over South Bend Riley
*4. at ELKHART: Northridge-$35; Warsaw-30; Elkhart-25; Penn-10.
Comments: As usual there is lots of parity among this group of old rivals. Defending champ Northridge, along with Elkhart and Warsaw appear to be the best bets at this site. Warsaw won by 15 over Northridge in early January. And they won at Elkhart by a single point
in late January. Elkhart, however, owns a two point win over Northridge in early December. Among these three, Elkhart has played by far the tougher schedule. Here’s the picks:
Penn over Goshen; Elkhart over Concord
Northridge over Penn; Warsaw over Elkhart
Northridge over Warsaw
*5. at EAST NOBLE: Carroll-$50; F.W.Snider-35; F.W.North-15.
Comments: Old foes Carroll and F.W.Snider are again the main contenders at this site. Snider won last year. Carroll is in a bit of a tournament slump, having not won a sectional since 2016. During the year, Carroll won by two points at Snider in late January. Here are the picks:
Carroll over Ft.Wayne Northrop; Ft.Wayne Snider over DeKalb
Carroll over Ft.Wayne North; Ft.Wayne Snider over East Noble
Carroll over Ft.Wayne Snider
*6. at FORT WAYNE WAYNE: Homestead-$90, New Haven-10.
Comments: After winning six sectionals in seven years, Homestead has been upset in the last two. An upset this year would be an even larger shock. Their only viable competition would appear to be New Haven--who upset them last year. However, Homestead routed them by thirty points in mid-December, so that is too big of a reversal to realistically expect. Here are the picks:
Homestead over Huntington; Ft.Wayne Wayne over Columbia City
Homestead over Ft.Wayne South; New Haven over Ft.Wayne Wayne
Homestead over New Haven
*7. at MARION: Lafayette Jeff-$35; McCutcheon-30; Marion-25; Harrison-10.
Comments: A real interesting group here. All six are NCC schools. Three are from Tippecanoe County. All have played each other during the season. Should be some real competitive games here. Marion has the home floor advantage and is the defending champ. Jeff has been highly rated all year. But they lost at McCutcheon by eight points earlier this month. McCutcheon might be the most surprisingly good team in the state. Here are the picks:
Lafayette Jeff over Marion; Logansport over Kokomo
Lafayette Jeff over Harrison; McCutcheon over Logansport
Lafayette Jeff over McCutcheon
*8. at CARMEL: Carmel-$70, Fishers-15; Westfield-10; Zionsville-5.
Comments Is this the year that someone other than Carmel wins this sectional? I seriously doubt it. The Greyhounds, as they often do, seem to be peaking at the right time. Plus, they will have homecourt advantage and they also drew a bye! All of the other squads here are also very capable and there should be some really tight games here. But, Carmel appears to be more than ready to meet any challenge. Here are the picks:
Fishers over Hamilton SE; Westfield over Zionsville
Carmel over Fishers; Westfield over Noblesville
Carmel over Westfield
