Good afternoon.
Shown below are my selections for this weekend’s four class title games, along
with some comments.
Semi-State Prediction Results: Last week I only picked 4 of the 8 semi-state games correctly. It was my worse performance at the semi-state level since 2011.
Have a great day and enjoy the games.
Dan
1A: Southwood over Morristown.............................................................by 5 points
*It would not be shocking if this would turn out to be the best game of the day. Both teams
can put points on the board in a hurry. Both have had impressive tourney victories over
highly-regarded opponents. I'm going to go with the Knights of Southwood in a close,
high-scoring affair.
*Southwood has won 17 of their last 18 games; Morristown 25 of their last 26.
*This is the first appearance in the finals for both teams..
*Morristown has played a slightly better schedule than Southwood.
*Southwood has a bit of a height advantage on Morristown.
*Not much difference between the two squads in the key statistical areas.
*Both teams were my #4 pre-tourney choice to win their respective semi-states.
*In my pre-season rankings, Southwood and Morristown were #2 and #4 respectively.
2A: Oak Hill over Forest Park .................................................................by 9 points
*I'll take Oak Hill here. They're taller, more experienced, and shoot better.
*Oak Hill has won 16 of their last 17 games; Forest Park has won 12 straight games.
*This is Oak Hill's first appearance in the finals. This is Forest Park's fourth visit to the
finals. They won each of their two previous trips in 2005 and 2006.
*Strength of schedule for both teams is almost identical.
*Oak Hill is a substantially better shooting team than Forest Park in field goal attempts,
three-point accuracy and free throw accuracy.
*Oak Hill starts a more experienced lineup than Forest Park. And as usual, OH enjoys a
height advantage over their opponent, but not as much as they typically do against their
2A foes.
*Oak Hill was my #2 pre-tourney choice to win the north semi-state. Forest Park was my #5
choice to come out of the south.
*In my pre-season rankings, Oak Hill and Forest Park were #2 and #124 respectively.
3A: Evansville Bosse over Culver Academy............................................by 6 points
*I'll stick with Bosse here, but I was more impressed last week with Culver. The latter's
quickness helped them greatly against New Castle. But Bosse is even quicker. Bosse
shoots better and has a lot more experience.
*Bosse won at home by 10 points over Culver on December 16th.
*Bosse has won eleven straight games; Culver 15 of their last 16.
*Bosse won three state titles in the one class system. Under the multi-class format, they've
made two previous trips to the finals (2007 and 2016) but were not successful. Culver was
in the finals in 2011, but lost to Washington.
*Both teams have played excellent schedules, with Culver's being a little stronger.
*Bosse is much more accurate than Culver on three-point shots as well as free throws.
*Bosse has six seniors on their roster---Culver only one!
*Bosse was my pre-tourney pick to win the 3A title. Culver was my #2 choice to win the
north semi-state.
*In my pre-season rankings, Bosse and Culver were #1 and #15 respectively.
4A: Warren Central over Carmel...........................................................by 2 points
*This a tough one. Warren Central has had an incredible season, winning so many close
games against extremely tough opposition. Can they do it one more time? And then
there's Carmel. Getting better as the season has progressed. More and more resembling
their championship squads of 2012 and 2013. This will likely be a deliberate, low-scoring
affair. I'll be surprised if either team reaches 60 points--maybe even 50. Every
possession will be critical, every free throw extremely important, every turnover could be
the difference between winning and losing. I'll stick with the Warriors to win one more
close one. But I sure wouldn't want to bet much on it !
*Warren edged Carmel by 1 point in mid-February.
*Warren is undefeated and Carmel has won 9 of their last 10 games.
*Warren has won ten games by 5 points or less. Carmel is 4-4 in similar-type games.
*This is Warren's first-ever finals appearance. Carmel has appeared in three previous finals
and has won three of them: 1977, 2012, and 2013.
*Carmel & Warren's strength of schedules are ranked 3rd and 4th, respectively, by Sagarin
*Carmel is significantly more accurate than Warren on both three-point shots as well as free
throws.
*Both teams were my #2 pre-tourney choice to win their respective semi-states.
*In my pre-season rankings, Warren and Carmel were #3 and #12 respectively.
Shown below are my selections for this weekend’s four class title games, along
with some comments.
Semi-State Prediction Results: Last week I only picked 4 of the 8 semi-state games correctly. It was my worse performance at the semi-state level since 2011.
Have a great day and enjoy the games.
Dan
1A: Southwood over Morristown.............................................................by 5 points
*It would not be shocking if this would turn out to be the best game of the day. Both teams
can put points on the board in a hurry. Both have had impressive tourney victories over
highly-regarded opponents. I'm going to go with the Knights of Southwood in a close,
high-scoring affair.
*Southwood has won 17 of their last 18 games; Morristown 25 of their last 26.
*This is the first appearance in the finals for both teams..
*Morristown has played a slightly better schedule than Southwood.
*Southwood has a bit of a height advantage on Morristown.
*Not much difference between the two squads in the key statistical areas.
*Both teams were my #4 pre-tourney choice to win their respective semi-states.
*In my pre-season rankings, Southwood and Morristown were #2 and #4 respectively.
2A: Oak Hill over Forest Park .................................................................by 9 points
*I'll take Oak Hill here. They're taller, more experienced, and shoot better.
*Oak Hill has won 16 of their last 17 games; Forest Park has won 12 straight games.
*This is Oak Hill's first appearance in the finals. This is Forest Park's fourth visit to the
finals. They won each of their two previous trips in 2005 and 2006.
*Strength of schedule for both teams is almost identical.
*Oak Hill is a substantially better shooting team than Forest Park in field goal attempts,
three-point accuracy and free throw accuracy.
*Oak Hill starts a more experienced lineup than Forest Park. And as usual, OH enjoys a
height advantage over their opponent, but not as much as they typically do against their
2A foes.
*Oak Hill was my #2 pre-tourney choice to win the north semi-state. Forest Park was my #5
choice to come out of the south.
*In my pre-season rankings, Oak Hill and Forest Park were #2 and #124 respectively.
3A: Evansville Bosse over Culver Academy............................................by 6 points
*I'll stick with Bosse here, but I was more impressed last week with Culver. The latter's
quickness helped them greatly against New Castle. But Bosse is even quicker. Bosse
shoots better and has a lot more experience.
*Bosse won at home by 10 points over Culver on December 16th.
*Bosse has won eleven straight games; Culver 15 of their last 16.
*Bosse won three state titles in the one class system. Under the multi-class format, they've
made two previous trips to the finals (2007 and 2016) but were not successful. Culver was
in the finals in 2011, but lost to Washington.
*Both teams have played excellent schedules, with Culver's being a little stronger.
*Bosse is much more accurate than Culver on three-point shots as well as free throws.
*Bosse has six seniors on their roster---Culver only one!
*Bosse was my pre-tourney pick to win the 3A title. Culver was my #2 choice to win the
north semi-state.
*In my pre-season rankings, Bosse and Culver were #1 and #15 respectively.
4A: Warren Central over Carmel...........................................................by 2 points
*This a tough one. Warren Central has had an incredible season, winning so many close
games against extremely tough opposition. Can they do it one more time? And then
there's Carmel. Getting better as the season has progressed. More and more resembling
their championship squads of 2012 and 2013. This will likely be a deliberate, low-scoring
affair. I'll be surprised if either team reaches 60 points--maybe even 50. Every
possession will be critical, every free throw extremely important, every turnover could be
the difference between winning and losing. I'll stick with the Warriors to win one more
close one. But I sure wouldn't want to bet much on it !
*Warren edged Carmel by 1 point in mid-February.
*Warren is undefeated and Carmel has won 9 of their last 10 games.
*Warren has won ten games by 5 points or less. Carmel is 4-4 in similar-type games.
*This is Warren's first-ever finals appearance. Carmel has appeared in three previous finals
and has won three of them: 1977, 2012, and 2013.
*Carmel & Warren's strength of schedules are ranked 3rd and 4th, respectively, by Sagarin
*Carmel is significantly more accurate than Warren on both three-point shots as well as free
throws.
*Both teams were my #2 pre-tourney choice to win their respective semi-states.
*In my pre-season rankings, Warren and Carmel were #3 and #12 respectively.
