2021-22 State Title Games
Good morning.
Shown below are my selections for this weekend’s state final games, along with a few comments.
Semi-State Prediction Results: Last week I picked 6 of the 8 games correctly. For the 6 games I picked
correctly, the cumulative "error" made in guessing the victory margin was 29 points. Let's see what happens tomorrow.
Have a great weekend and enjoy the games!
Dan
1A: North Daviess over Lafayette CC.......................................................by 8 points
* ND was my pre-tourney choice to win the southern semi-state. LCC was my #2 pre-tourney choice
to win the northern semi-state.
* In this year's PRE-SEASON rankings, I had ND #5 and LCC #8.
* This is likely to be a low-scoring affair. Most ND games are. Their precise and deliberate
offense combined with a strong defense (they allow only 37 ppg) usually result in very few
points scored on either side of the ball. .
* ND has a significant advantage over LCC in both FG percentage and 3-point percentage. And perhaps
of equal importance, they are much more accurate at the FT line than LCC--72% to 59%. Problems
at the free throw lane made LCC's win in the semi-state much more difficult than it could have
been.
* Schedules for both teams are among the toughest in 1A.
* This is the first state final for ND; 6th for LCC--most recent in 2017.
2A: Central Noble over Providence...........................................................by 11 points
* Central Noble was my #2 pre-tourney choice to win the northern semi-state.
* In this year's PRE-SEASON rankings, I had Central Noble at #7 while Providence was unranked.
* Not much difference between the two in strength of schedule.
* First state final for both teams
* CN has a bit more size, but not as much depth.
* CN has a significantly higher shooting percentage from both the field and the free throw lane.
* CN scores 12 ppg more than Providence.
3A: Mishawaka Marian over Beech Grove............................................. by 3 points
* Mishawaka Marian was my pre-tourney choice to win the 3A title. Beech Grove was my
#5 pre-tourney choice win the southern semi-state.
* In my PRE-SEASON rankings, Marian was #1 while Beech Grove was unranked.
* BG has lots of size and lots of depth. They go about 10 deep. Marian also has nice size.
* These two should be two of the top teams in 3A again next year.
* First state title appearance for both teams.
* Both teams average around 64 ppg. Marian allows 6 fewer ppg.
* Not much difference between the two in strength of schedule.
* Marian shoots the ball a little better than BG. Not much difference in free throw accuracy.
4A: Indianapolis Cathedral over Chesterton ..............................................by 9 points
* Chesterton was my #5 pre-tourney choice to win the northern semi-state. Cathedral was my
#4 choice to come out of the south.
* In this year's PRE-SEASON rankings, I had Cathedral #1 and Chesterton #17.
* Chesterton holds opponents to 14 ppg less than Cathedral. But the Irish score 8 ppg more.
* The Irish hit a higher percentage of 3's than Chesterton. Other than that, not much to choose
from in shooting accuracy.
* This is Chesterton's initial trip to the finals. Fourth trip for Cathedral--most recent being 2013.
* Cathedral has played a much stronger schedule than Chesterton.
* Like many games, tempo will be the key for this game. If Cathedral gets off to a good, quick
start, they might win by a big margin. I'm not sure Chesterton has enough firepower to
successfully play a "catch up" type of game, if needed. On the other hand, if Chesterton keeps the
game slow and deliberate, there's a good chance that that will frustrate Cathedral into
poor shot selection. Which will play right into Chesterton's hands. This should be an interesting
matchup to say the least.
