Good afternoon.
Shown below are my selections for this weekend's regional games, along with some comments. Most of the historical info referenced was derived from John Harrell's great web site. The numbers in parentheses by each team's name is how I rank the teams in each regional, with #1 indicating the team most likely to win, #4 the least likely, etc.
Sectional Prediction Results: Last week I picked 38 out of 64 sectional winners correctly for 59%. For all games played, I selected 276 out of 335 games correctly for 82%.
Have a great day.
Dan
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CLASS 4A
MICHIGAN CITY
(3)South Bend Riley [10-14] over (4)Northridge [14-9]
(1)Munster [18-9] over (2)Crown Point [18-8]
Munster the winner
* With the possible exception of Crown Point, the other three teams are a big
surprise to be here.
* Munster has perhaps been a bit of a disappointment this year, but their surprise win over East Chicago more than makes up for that.
* Both Munster and Crown Point have won 10 of their last 12 games.
* Playing at Michigan City might be an advantage for CP since they just played three games there this past weekend.
* Northridge has played a much weaker schedule than the other three teams here.
* The winner of the Munster-CP game will have to guard against a letdown at night.
* Prior Scores: Riley-71, at Northridge-57 (Dec.5th)
CP-65, at Munster-57 (Dec. 19th)
MARION
(1)Homestead [25-2] over (3)Carroll (Fort Wayne) [23-3]
(2)Carmel [22-2] over (4)McCutcheon [22-4]
Homestead the winner
* Probably the best regional field in the state. Winner of Carmel-Homestead, if it occurs, will likely represent the north in the 4A title game at Bankers Life.
* Don't look for many points to be scored on Saturday. The defensive averages for these four teams are as follows: Carmel-43 ppg, Carroll-45, McCutcheon-46, Homestead-51.
* Homestead won this regional last year.
* Homestead has won 24 of their last 25 games. Carmel 19 of 20. McCutcheon 12 of
13, and Carroll 11 of 12.
* Carmel has played by far the toughest schedule, McCutcheon the easiest.
* Prior Scores: Homestead-46, Carroll-34 (Dec.19th)
Homestead-48, at Carroll-39 (Jan.3rd)
SOUTHPORT
(1)Pike [18-8] over (3)Richmond [24-3]
(2)Lawrence North [19-5] over (4)Brownsburg [20-6]
Pike the winner
* A solid group of teams here. Wouldn't be s stretch for any of them to win this regional.
* Can Richmond beat a good Marion County team? The jury is certainly out on the Devils. They've lost 6 games over the last two years, with 5 of those losses
coming to Marion County squads.
* This is Pike's 5th straight regional appearance and 14th in the last 18 years!
* Richmond and Brownsburg were here last year as well.
* This is LN's first regional since 2009.
* Richmond has won 23 of their last 24 games.
* Prior Scores: Pike-65, Brownsburg-54 (Jan.3rd)
Pike-96, Lawrence North-84 (Feb.20th)
SEYMOUR
(1)Bloomington South [21-2] over (4)Franklin Central [8-15]
(2)Evansville Reitz [26-1] over (3)New Albany [23-2]
Bloomington South the winner
* Is Bloomington South back? We'll soon find out, They have a great draw in this regional--playing the first game against the weakest team. South, by their
standards has been a bit down the last few years. This year they've done a great
job of "flying under the radar", despite winning their last 19 games. I think
they're just the 3rd best team here, but the draw will be enough to get them
through.
* South is playing in their first regional since 2012. Prior to that, they were in
8 regional's in a 10-year (2003-12) time period.
* Franklin Central and New Albany both were in this regional last year. It is FCs
third straight appearance.
* While FC has a very poor record, their schedule has been far stronger than the
other three teams.
* New Albany has won 16 straight games.
* Reitz is playing in their first regional since 2008.
* Prior Scores: New Albany-73, Bloomington South-56 (Nov.29th)
* Reitz-81, New Albany-51 (Jan. 2nd)
* Bloomington South-86, Franklin Central-65 (Jan.24th)
CLASS 3A
KANKAKEE VALLEY
(1)South Bend St. Joseph [18-6] over (2)Andrean [14-10]
(3)Griffith [16-3] over (4)Twin Lakes [18-8]
St.Joseph the winner
* St.Joe's win over Mishawaka Marian wasn't that big of a surprise now that St.Joe
is at full strength. They are a solid favorite at this regional.
* St.Joe and Andrean have played much tougher schedules than the other two squads.
* St.Joe and Twin Lakes were here last year. Andrean is appearing in their 6th straight regional !
* Griffith has won 11 of their last 13 games.
* Prior Score: Andrean-46, Griffith-24 (Jan. 29th)
BLACKFORD
(2)Hamilton Heights [19-7] over (4)Fort Wayne Dwenger [12-13]
(1)NorthWood [22-2] over (3)Columbia City [19-7]
Northwood the winner
* This a wide-open affair. Dwenger is the defending champion. They have the worst record but against by far the toughest schedule.
* Northwood was here last year as well, losing to Dwenger in a first-round game.
* Hamilton Heights has won 11 of their last 12 games.
* Prior Score: Hamilton Heights-43, Dwenger-42 (Jan. 3rd on a neutral court)
GREENCASTLE
(1)Guerin Catholic [18-8] over (3)Lebanon [9-15]
(2)Tri-West [20-4] over (4)West Vigo [14-12]
Guerin Catholic the winner
* What a hodge-podge group. All over the place geographically and playing at Greencastle? Class basketball at its greatest.
* Would be a real shock if Guerin did not win here. They've played by far the toughest schedule of this group. West Vigo has played by far the easiest.
* Guerin is the defending regional champion. Tri-West was here last year as well.
* It's Lebanon's first regional since 2002. West Vigo's first since 1990.
* Guerin has won 8 of their last 10 games.
* Prior Score: Tri-West-70, Lebanon-44 (Jan.16th)
WASHINGTON
(1)Silver Creek [23-2] over (3)Evansville Memorial [17-6]
(2)Greensburg [21-3] over (4)Vincennes Lincoln [19-6]
Silver Creek the winner
* Solid group of teams here. Very evenly matched.
* Not much difference in the strength of schedules amongst this group.
* Greensburg is the defending 3A champion. They are playing in their 4th straight regional. Memorial and Silver Creek were here last year as well. Both lost to Greensburg.
* Memorial has won 10 of their last 11 games. Greensburg has won 12 in a row. Vincennes has won 12 of their last 14.
CLASS 2A
NORTH JUDSON
(1)Fort Wayne Canterbury [14-10] over (2)Hammond Noll [11-13]
(3)Winamac [20-4] over (4)LaVille [20-6]
Canterbury the winner
* This is a weak group. All four teams have a good shot here.
* Canterbury and Noll have played much tougher schedules than the other two.
* Noll and Winamac were here last year. Canterbury is playing in their 4th straight
regional, but first in 2A.
* Prior Score: Winamac-58, LaVille-46 (Jan.6th)
TIPTON
(1)Frankton [23-2] over (3)Fountain Central [20-8]
(2)Oak Hill [18-6] over (4)Madison-Grant [14-9]
Frankton the winner
* Frankton is a top-heavy favorite here.
* Frankton has won 13 of their last 14 games. Oak Hill has won 14 of 17.
* Fountain Central was a regional participant last year.
*Prior Scores: Frankton-61, at Oak Hill-28 (Dec.19th)
Oak Hill-43, Madison-Grant-37 (Dec. 27th on a neutral court)
Frankton-70, Madison-Grant-46 (Jan.16th)
Oak Hill-57, Madison-Grant-43 (Jan.30th)
GREENFIELD CENTRAL
(1)Park Tudor [22-2] over (3)Northeastern [22-3]
(2)Indianapolis Attucks [18-5] over (4)Cloverdale [22-5]
Park-Tudor the winner
* A solid group here, especially for the 2A level.
* PT is the defending 2A champion. Northeastern and Attucks were in this regional last year as well.
* PT has won 12 of their last 13 games. Cloverdale has won 16 of 17. Northeastern has won 10 in a row.
* PT and Attucks have played far tougher schedules than Northeastern. NE, in turn, has had a far tougher schedule than Cloverdale.
* Prior Score: Attucks-72, at Northeastern-63 (Jan.16th)
SOUTHRIDGE
(1)Evansville Mater Dei [19-6] over (2)Linton-Stockton [20-6]
(3)South Ripley [16-8] over (4)Eastern (Pekin) [15-10]
Mater Dei the winner
* A pretty weak group. The winner of the first game should be a big favorite in the title game.
* Mater Dei's schedule was by far the strongest. South Ripley's is the weakest.
* This is Mater Dei's first regional since 2008; Eastern's first appearance since
2001. Linton, on the other hand, is playing in their 3rd straight regional.
* Mater Dei has won 12 of their last 15. Ripley has won 7 of 8. Linton has won 14
of their last 16.
* Prior Score: Mater Dei-57, Linton-42 (Dec.20th_
CLASS 1A
TRITON
(1)Marquette Catholic [21-6] over (2)Ft.Wayne Blackhawk [20-6]
(3)Tri-County [20-5] over (4)Oregon-Davis [11-13]
Marquette the winner
* Defending 1A champ Marquette thumped Blackhawk last year 70-49. This one should be much closer. These two are probably among the top 4 most likely teams to win the 1A title --along with Barr-Reeve and Liberty Christian.
* Marquette has won 12 of their last 13 games. Blackhawk has won 13 of last 15. OD has won 8 of their last 9, while TC has won 11 in a row.
* Marquette and Blackhawk have played much tougher competition than the other two teams.
FRANKFORT
(1)Liberty Christian [23-3] over (3)Seton Catholic [18-6]
(2)Lafayette Central Catholic [15-9] over (4)Rossville [11-15]
Liberty Christian the winner
* Same exact teams were here last year with LC defeating Seton and LCC defeating Rossville in the first-round. Then Liberty defeated LCC for the title.
* If Liberty and LCC play at night, it will be the 4th straight year they've played
each other. Liberty won in 2012 and 2014. LCC prevailed in 2013.
* LCC has played a much tougher schedule than Liberty. Liberty, in turn, has played
a much tougher schedule than FC and Rossville.
* This is the 14th straight regional appearance for LCC.
* Seton has won 12 of their last 13 games.
* Prior Scores: LCC-56, at Rossville-49 (Dec. 12th)
Liberty-91, Seton-28 (Dec. 27th)
MARTINSVILLE
(1)Clay City [22-4] over (3)Indianapolis Tindley [17-10]
(2)Jac-Cen-Del [18-8] over (4)Indianapolis Lutheran [9-15]
Clay City the winner
* A real weak group here. Defending regional champ Clay City, making their fourth
straight regional appearance, is my choice to repeat.
* This is Tindley's first regional appearance.
* Clay City has won 14 of their last 15 games. Lutheran, after losing 11 straight,
has won 6 of their last 7 games.
* The two Indy schools have played a far tougher schedule than CC or JCD.
* Prior Score: Jac-Cen-Del-56, Lutheran-46 (Dec. 29th on a neutral court)
LOOGOOTEE
(1)Barr-Reeve [23-2] over (3)Christian Academy [21-4]
(2)Orleans [21-3] over (4)Wood Memorial [17-9]
Barr-Reeve the winner
* Three strong teams here plus Wood Memorial. Drawing them might be a big break for Orleans.
* Expect low-scoring games here. All four teams allow 45 ppg or less.
* Christian Academy is appearing in a regional for the first time since 1999.
* Barr-Reeve won this regional last year and are appearing for the third straight
year.
* Barr-Reeve has won 16 straight games. Christian Academy has won 21 of their last 23. Orleans has won 15 of 16.
* Barr-Reeve's schedule has easily been the toughest. Wood Memorial the weakest.
* Prior Scores: B.R,-38, at Orleans-34 (Dec.13th)
Orleans-53, B.R.-46 (Dec. 26th on a neutral court)
B.R.-51, Wood Mem.-25 (Jan.23rd)
Shown below are my selections for this weekend's regional games, along with some comments. Most of the historical info referenced was derived from John Harrell's great web site. The numbers in parentheses by each team's name is how I rank the teams in each regional, with #1 indicating the team most likely to win, #4 the least likely, etc.
Sectional Prediction Results: Last week I picked 38 out of 64 sectional winners correctly for 59%. For all games played, I selected 276 out of 335 games correctly for 82%.
Have a great day.
Dan
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CLASS 4A
MICHIGAN CITY
(3)South Bend Riley [10-14] over (4)Northridge [14-9]
(1)Munster [18-9] over (2)Crown Point [18-8]
Munster the winner
* With the possible exception of Crown Point, the other three teams are a big
surprise to be here.
* Munster has perhaps been a bit of a disappointment this year, but their surprise win over East Chicago more than makes up for that.
* Both Munster and Crown Point have won 10 of their last 12 games.
* Playing at Michigan City might be an advantage for CP since they just played three games there this past weekend.
* Northridge has played a much weaker schedule than the other three teams here.
* The winner of the Munster-CP game will have to guard against a letdown at night.
* Prior Scores: Riley-71, at Northridge-57 (Dec.5th)
CP-65, at Munster-57 (Dec. 19th)
MARION
(1)Homestead [25-2] over (3)Carroll (Fort Wayne) [23-3]
(2)Carmel [22-2] over (4)McCutcheon [22-4]
Homestead the winner
* Probably the best regional field in the state. Winner of Carmel-Homestead, if it occurs, will likely represent the north in the 4A title game at Bankers Life.
* Don't look for many points to be scored on Saturday. The defensive averages for these four teams are as follows: Carmel-43 ppg, Carroll-45, McCutcheon-46, Homestead-51.
* Homestead won this regional last year.
* Homestead has won 24 of their last 25 games. Carmel 19 of 20. McCutcheon 12 of
13, and Carroll 11 of 12.
* Carmel has played by far the toughest schedule, McCutcheon the easiest.
* Prior Scores: Homestead-46, Carroll-34 (Dec.19th)
Homestead-48, at Carroll-39 (Jan.3rd)
SOUTHPORT
(1)Pike [18-8] over (3)Richmond [24-3]
(2)Lawrence North [19-5] over (4)Brownsburg [20-6]
Pike the winner
* A solid group of teams here. Wouldn't be s stretch for any of them to win this regional.
* Can Richmond beat a good Marion County team? The jury is certainly out on the Devils. They've lost 6 games over the last two years, with 5 of those losses
coming to Marion County squads.
* This is Pike's 5th straight regional appearance and 14th in the last 18 years!
* Richmond and Brownsburg were here last year as well.
* This is LN's first regional since 2009.
* Richmond has won 23 of their last 24 games.
* Prior Scores: Pike-65, Brownsburg-54 (Jan.3rd)
Pike-96, Lawrence North-84 (Feb.20th)
SEYMOUR
(1)Bloomington South [21-2] over (4)Franklin Central [8-15]
(2)Evansville Reitz [26-1] over (3)New Albany [23-2]
Bloomington South the winner
* Is Bloomington South back? We'll soon find out, They have a great draw in this regional--playing the first game against the weakest team. South, by their
standards has been a bit down the last few years. This year they've done a great
job of "flying under the radar", despite winning their last 19 games. I think
they're just the 3rd best team here, but the draw will be enough to get them
through.
* South is playing in their first regional since 2012. Prior to that, they were in
8 regional's in a 10-year (2003-12) time period.
* Franklin Central and New Albany both were in this regional last year. It is FCs
third straight appearance.
* While FC has a very poor record, their schedule has been far stronger than the
other three teams.
* New Albany has won 16 straight games.
* Reitz is playing in their first regional since 2008.
* Prior Scores: New Albany-73, Bloomington South-56 (Nov.29th)
* Reitz-81, New Albany-51 (Jan. 2nd)
* Bloomington South-86, Franklin Central-65 (Jan.24th)
CLASS 3A
KANKAKEE VALLEY
(1)South Bend St. Joseph [18-6] over (2)Andrean [14-10]
(3)Griffith [16-3] over (4)Twin Lakes [18-8]
St.Joseph the winner
* St.Joe's win over Mishawaka Marian wasn't that big of a surprise now that St.Joe
is at full strength. They are a solid favorite at this regional.
* St.Joe and Andrean have played much tougher schedules than the other two squads.
* St.Joe and Twin Lakes were here last year. Andrean is appearing in their 6th straight regional !
* Griffith has won 11 of their last 13 games.
* Prior Score: Andrean-46, Griffith-24 (Jan. 29th)
BLACKFORD
(2)Hamilton Heights [19-7] over (4)Fort Wayne Dwenger [12-13]
(1)NorthWood [22-2] over (3)Columbia City [19-7]
Northwood the winner
* This a wide-open affair. Dwenger is the defending champion. They have the worst record but against by far the toughest schedule.
* Northwood was here last year as well, losing to Dwenger in a first-round game.
* Hamilton Heights has won 11 of their last 12 games.
* Prior Score: Hamilton Heights-43, Dwenger-42 (Jan. 3rd on a neutral court)
GREENCASTLE
(1)Guerin Catholic [18-8] over (3)Lebanon [9-15]
(2)Tri-West [20-4] over (4)West Vigo [14-12]
Guerin Catholic the winner
* What a hodge-podge group. All over the place geographically and playing at Greencastle? Class basketball at its greatest.
* Would be a real shock if Guerin did not win here. They've played by far the toughest schedule of this group. West Vigo has played by far the easiest.
* Guerin is the defending regional champion. Tri-West was here last year as well.
* It's Lebanon's first regional since 2002. West Vigo's first since 1990.
* Guerin has won 8 of their last 10 games.
* Prior Score: Tri-West-70, Lebanon-44 (Jan.16th)
WASHINGTON
(1)Silver Creek [23-2] over (3)Evansville Memorial [17-6]
(2)Greensburg [21-3] over (4)Vincennes Lincoln [19-6]
Silver Creek the winner
* Solid group of teams here. Very evenly matched.
* Not much difference in the strength of schedules amongst this group.
* Greensburg is the defending 3A champion. They are playing in their 4th straight regional. Memorial and Silver Creek were here last year as well. Both lost to Greensburg.
* Memorial has won 10 of their last 11 games. Greensburg has won 12 in a row. Vincennes has won 12 of their last 14.
CLASS 2A
NORTH JUDSON
(1)Fort Wayne Canterbury [14-10] over (2)Hammond Noll [11-13]
(3)Winamac [20-4] over (4)LaVille [20-6]
Canterbury the winner
* This is a weak group. All four teams have a good shot here.
* Canterbury and Noll have played much tougher schedules than the other two.
* Noll and Winamac were here last year. Canterbury is playing in their 4th straight
regional, but first in 2A.
* Prior Score: Winamac-58, LaVille-46 (Jan.6th)
TIPTON
(1)Frankton [23-2] over (3)Fountain Central [20-8]
(2)Oak Hill [18-6] over (4)Madison-Grant [14-9]
Frankton the winner
* Frankton is a top-heavy favorite here.
* Frankton has won 13 of their last 14 games. Oak Hill has won 14 of 17.
* Fountain Central was a regional participant last year.
*Prior Scores: Frankton-61, at Oak Hill-28 (Dec.19th)
Oak Hill-43, Madison-Grant-37 (Dec. 27th on a neutral court)
Frankton-70, Madison-Grant-46 (Jan.16th)
Oak Hill-57, Madison-Grant-43 (Jan.30th)
GREENFIELD CENTRAL
(1)Park Tudor [22-2] over (3)Northeastern [22-3]
(2)Indianapolis Attucks [18-5] over (4)Cloverdale [22-5]
Park-Tudor the winner
* A solid group here, especially for the 2A level.
* PT is the defending 2A champion. Northeastern and Attucks were in this regional last year as well.
* PT has won 12 of their last 13 games. Cloverdale has won 16 of 17. Northeastern has won 10 in a row.
* PT and Attucks have played far tougher schedules than Northeastern. NE, in turn, has had a far tougher schedule than Cloverdale.
* Prior Score: Attucks-72, at Northeastern-63 (Jan.16th)
SOUTHRIDGE
(1)Evansville Mater Dei [19-6] over (2)Linton-Stockton [20-6]
(3)South Ripley [16-8] over (4)Eastern (Pekin) [15-10]
Mater Dei the winner
* A pretty weak group. The winner of the first game should be a big favorite in the title game.
* Mater Dei's schedule was by far the strongest. South Ripley's is the weakest.
* This is Mater Dei's first regional since 2008; Eastern's first appearance since
2001. Linton, on the other hand, is playing in their 3rd straight regional.
* Mater Dei has won 12 of their last 15. Ripley has won 7 of 8. Linton has won 14
of their last 16.
* Prior Score: Mater Dei-57, Linton-42 (Dec.20th_
CLASS 1A
TRITON
(1)Marquette Catholic [21-6] over (2)Ft.Wayne Blackhawk [20-6]
(3)Tri-County [20-5] over (4)Oregon-Davis [11-13]
Marquette the winner
* Defending 1A champ Marquette thumped Blackhawk last year 70-49. This one should be much closer. These two are probably among the top 4 most likely teams to win the 1A title --along with Barr-Reeve and Liberty Christian.
* Marquette has won 12 of their last 13 games. Blackhawk has won 13 of last 15. OD has won 8 of their last 9, while TC has won 11 in a row.
* Marquette and Blackhawk have played much tougher competition than the other two teams.
FRANKFORT
(1)Liberty Christian [23-3] over (3)Seton Catholic [18-6]
(2)Lafayette Central Catholic [15-9] over (4)Rossville [11-15]
Liberty Christian the winner
* Same exact teams were here last year with LC defeating Seton and LCC defeating Rossville in the first-round. Then Liberty defeated LCC for the title.
* If Liberty and LCC play at night, it will be the 4th straight year they've played
each other. Liberty won in 2012 and 2014. LCC prevailed in 2013.
* LCC has played a much tougher schedule than Liberty. Liberty, in turn, has played
a much tougher schedule than FC and Rossville.
* This is the 14th straight regional appearance for LCC.
* Seton has won 12 of their last 13 games.
* Prior Scores: LCC-56, at Rossville-49 (Dec. 12th)
Liberty-91, Seton-28 (Dec. 27th)
MARTINSVILLE
(1)Clay City [22-4] over (3)Indianapolis Tindley [17-10]
(2)Jac-Cen-Del [18-8] over (4)Indianapolis Lutheran [9-15]
Clay City the winner
* A real weak group here. Defending regional champ Clay City, making their fourth
straight regional appearance, is my choice to repeat.
* This is Tindley's first regional appearance.
* Clay City has won 14 of their last 15 games. Lutheran, after losing 11 straight,
has won 6 of their last 7 games.
* The two Indy schools have played a far tougher schedule than CC or JCD.
* Prior Score: Jac-Cen-Del-56, Lutheran-46 (Dec. 29th on a neutral court)
LOOGOOTEE
(1)Barr-Reeve [23-2] over (3)Christian Academy [21-4]
(2)Orleans [21-3] over (4)Wood Memorial [17-9]
Barr-Reeve the winner
* Three strong teams here plus Wood Memorial. Drawing them might be a big break for Orleans.
* Expect low-scoring games here. All four teams allow 45 ppg or less.
* Christian Academy is appearing in a regional for the first time since 1999.
* Barr-Reeve won this regional last year and are appearing for the third straight
year.
* Barr-Reeve has won 16 straight games. Christian Academy has won 21 of their last 23. Orleans has won 15 of 16.
* Barr-Reeve's schedule has easily been the toughest. Wood Memorial the weakest.
* Prior Scores: B.R,-38, at Orleans-34 (Dec.13th)
Orleans-53, B.R.-46 (Dec. 26th on a neutral court)
B.R.-51, Wood Mem.-25 (Jan.23rd)
