Good afternoon.
Shown below are my selections for this weekend’s regional games, along with some
comments. Most of the historical info referenced was derived from John Harrell’s great
web site. The numbers in parentheses by each team’s name is how I rank the teams in
each regional, with #1 indicating the team most likely to win, #4 the least likely, etc.
Sectional Prediction Results: Last week I picked 40 out of 64 sectional winners correctly
for 63%. For all games played, I selected 265 out of 335 games correctly for 79%.
Have a great day.
Dan
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CLASS 4A
at MICHIGAN CITY
(1)Warsaw [23-1] over (3)South Bend Riley [22-5]
(2)East Chicago Central [18-5] over (4)Crown Point [18-8]
Warsaw the winner
* Warsaw has given up only 38 ppg. Their regional opponents have rarely faced
a team with their defensive abilities and discipline. But Warsaw has rarely
faced teams with the size, skill and quickness of S.B.Riley and potentially ECC.
I'm casting a shaky vote for Warsaw. I think their defense and poise will frustrate
the other teams here. However, if Warsaw should fall behind early, things
could go south for them quickly. It's questionable whether they can score
enough points quickly should they ha0ve to. If by chance Riley and ECC
would end up in the title game, the fans could be witness to an extremely
entertaining confrontation.
* ECC and CP have played far more difficult schedules than Warsaw and Riley
* Riley has won 10 of their last 11 games; ECC 11 of their last 12; CP 12
of their last 14.
* Riley is the defending regional champion. Crown Point is here for the second
straight year. They lost to Riley last year. Warsaw if making their first
appearance since 2013; ECC their first since 2008.
* Prior Score: ECC-80, Crown Point-73 (Feb.6)
at LOGANSPORT
(2)Carroll (Fort Wayne) [22-6] over (4)Homestead [20-5]
(1)McCutcheon [25-3] over (3)Carmel [17-8]
McCutcheon the winner
* This line-up is identical to last year's 4A regional at Marion. Last year,
Homestead beat Carroll, Carmel over McCutcheon, and Homestead the
winner. It was Homestead's second straight regional title.
* If anyone wants to be a coach, this would be a good regional to attend. Four
excellent coaches will be patrolling the sidelines. McCutcheon has been
playing great as of late. They might be in for their acid test by having to deal
with Carmel's brilliant coach Heady in the first round, and then another
brilliant strategist in the finale.
* McCutcheon has played a weaker schedule than the other three teams here.
* Carmel has won 6 of their last 8 games; McCutcheon 18 of their last 19;
Homestead 13 of 14. Carroll has lost 3 of their last 6 games.
* This is Carmel's fourth regional appearance in the last five years.
* McCutcheon easily has to best ppg figures--over 74 ppg. And they only give
up 50 ppg.
* Prior Scores: Carroll-62, Homestead-43 (Dec.23);
Homestead-60, Carroll-57 (Feb.19)
Carroll-55, at Carmel-46 (Feb.13)
at SOUTHPORT
(1)North Central (Marion Co.) [22-3] over (3)Terre Haute South [21-6]
(2)Southport [20-6] over (4)Connersville [21-5]
North Central the winner
* A likely finale between NC and Southport could be a classic. I'm guessing
that one or both of these teams might be a bit overconfident for their first
round games---which might bode well for Connersville and T.H.South.
Otherwise, those latter two squads are a bit out of their league.
* NC and Southport have played far stronger schedules than T.H.South.
South, in turn, has played a much tougher schedule than Connersville.
* Southport has won 15 of their last 16 games; Connersville 12 of their
last 14; NC 11 of 13; and THS 9 of 10.
* This is Connersville first regional since 1997; Southport's first since
2000; THS' first since 2009; and NC's first since 2011.
* NC and THS have a much higher offensive average than the other two
teams. Connersville, at less than 43 ppg, is easily the lowest in
defensive ppg.
* Prior Score: Southport-70, North Central-48 (Jan.13)
at SEYMOUR
(1)New Albany [23-1] over (3)Bloomington South [21-4]
(2)Evansville Reitz [21-4] over (4)Franklin Central [18-6]
New Albany the winner
* An exciting group of teams here. Both South and Reitz are chomping
at the bit to get another shot at NA. All three are capable of winning
this thing. And don't sell FC short. Year after year, this school never seems
to get much recognition, but they just keep winning. I would't be surprised
to see them win one game, but two might be a bit of a stretch.
* All of these teams have played outstanding schedules with South's
and FC's a little stronger than the other two.
* New Albany has won 20 games in a row and South 15 in a row. Reitz
has won 11 of their last 12.
* FC is making their fourth straight regional appearance. Reitz won this
regional last year. New Albany is making their third straight trip and
South their second straight. Both NA and South lost to Reitz last year.
* NA and Reitz have much higher ppg averages than South and FC. But
Reitz allows a lot more points as well.
* Prior Scores: New Albany-72, at Bloomington South-68 (Nov.28)
New Albany-72, Evans.Reitz-63 (Dec.30)
Bloomington South-75, at Franklin Central-64 (Jan.23)
CLASS 3A
at KANKAKEE VALLEY
(2)Mishawaka Marian [21-4] over (3)Twin Lakes [20-6]
(1)Griffith [23-3] over (4)Northwestern [10-12]
Griffith the winner
* Marian has played a slightly tougher schedule than the other three teams
* Marian has won 10 of their last 11 games; Twin Lakes 8 of last 10
* Griffith is the defending regional champ. Twin Lakes is making their
third straight regional appearance--they lost in first round to Griffith last
year. This is Marian's first appearance since 2012; Northwestern's first
since 2008.
* Griffith has given up far fewer ppg than the other three schools.
* Prior Score: Twin Lakes-71, at Northwestern-66 (Jan.29)
at MARION
(1)Marion [19-7] over (3)Columbia City [20-6]
(2)Northwood [23-2] over (4)Angola [25-2]
Marion the winner
* Another case where home court advantage will probably determine
the winner.
* Marion has played by far the toughest schedule; Angola the weakest
* CC has won 14 of their last 16 games; Northwood 20 of 21: Angola
12 of 13.
* Marion is in their first regional since 2009. Angola-their first since
1999. NW is in their third straight regional. CC was here last year,
losing a first round game to Northwood.
* Marion scores the most points per game by a large margin, but also gives
up a lot more per game.
at GREENCASTLE
(3)Tri-West [20-6] over (4)Northview [13-14)
(1)Park Tudor [20-4] over (2)Brebeuf Jesuit [16-9]
Park-Tudor the winner
* Park-Tudor and Brebeuf have played much tougher schedules than Tri-West
and Northview.
* Park-Tudor has won 11 of their last 12 games; Tri-West 9 of their last 10.
* This is Brebeuf's first regional appearance since 2010; Northview's first
since 2004. Tri-West is making their third straight appearance.
Park-Tudor is in a regional for the sixth time in the last seventh years.
They've won the last two 2A state titles.
* Park-Tudor's defensive ppg average is far lower than the other three teams.
* Prior Scores: Tri-West-83, at Northview-72 (Jan.27)
Park-Tudor-47, Brebeuf-39 (Feb.6)
Brebeuf-62, Tri-West-52 (Feb.13)
Park-Tudor-48, Tri-West-46 (Dec.12)
at WASHINGTON
(2)Silver Creek [21-4] over (3)Greensburg [16-7]
(1)Evansville Bosse [16-10] over (4)Pike Central [20-5]
Bosse the winner
* Bosse and Silver Creek are the class of this field. The other two
squads will have to hope they are being overlooked.
* Bosse has played a far tougher schedule than the other teams here.
* SC has won 10 of their last 11 games; Greensburg 9 of their last 11; and
Bosse 8 of 10.
* Greensburg is appearing in their fifth straight regional; SC their third
straight. Pike Central is in a regional for the first time since 1997;
Bosse the first time since 2013
* Bosse scores a lot more ppg than the others, but gives up a lot more as well.
Shown below are my selections for this weekend’s regional games, along with some
comments. Most of the historical info referenced was derived from John Harrell’s great
web site. The numbers in parentheses by each team’s name is how I rank the teams in
each regional, with #1 indicating the team most likely to win, #4 the least likely, etc.
Sectional Prediction Results: Last week I picked 40 out of 64 sectional winners correctly
for 63%. For all games played, I selected 265 out of 335 games correctly for 79%.
Have a great day.
Dan
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CLASS 4A
at MICHIGAN CITY
(1)Warsaw [23-1] over (3)South Bend Riley [22-5]
(2)East Chicago Central [18-5] over (4)Crown Point [18-8]
Warsaw the winner
* Warsaw has given up only 38 ppg. Their regional opponents have rarely faced
a team with their defensive abilities and discipline. But Warsaw has rarely
faced teams with the size, skill and quickness of S.B.Riley and potentially ECC.
I'm casting a shaky vote for Warsaw. I think their defense and poise will frustrate
the other teams here. However, if Warsaw should fall behind early, things
could go south for them quickly. It's questionable whether they can score
enough points quickly should they ha0ve to. If by chance Riley and ECC
would end up in the title game, the fans could be witness to an extremely
entertaining confrontation.
* ECC and CP have played far more difficult schedules than Warsaw and Riley
* Riley has won 10 of their last 11 games; ECC 11 of their last 12; CP 12
of their last 14.
* Riley is the defending regional champion. Crown Point is here for the second
straight year. They lost to Riley last year. Warsaw if making their first
appearance since 2013; ECC their first since 2008.
* Prior Score: ECC-80, Crown Point-73 (Feb.6)
at LOGANSPORT
(2)Carroll (Fort Wayne) [22-6] over (4)Homestead [20-5]
(1)McCutcheon [25-3] over (3)Carmel [17-8]
McCutcheon the winner
* This line-up is identical to last year's 4A regional at Marion. Last year,
Homestead beat Carroll, Carmel over McCutcheon, and Homestead the
winner. It was Homestead's second straight regional title.
* If anyone wants to be a coach, this would be a good regional to attend. Four
excellent coaches will be patrolling the sidelines. McCutcheon has been
playing great as of late. They might be in for their acid test by having to deal
with Carmel's brilliant coach Heady in the first round, and then another
brilliant strategist in the finale.
* McCutcheon has played a weaker schedule than the other three teams here.
* Carmel has won 6 of their last 8 games; McCutcheon 18 of their last 19;
Homestead 13 of 14. Carroll has lost 3 of their last 6 games.
* This is Carmel's fourth regional appearance in the last five years.
* McCutcheon easily has to best ppg figures--over 74 ppg. And they only give
up 50 ppg.
* Prior Scores: Carroll-62, Homestead-43 (Dec.23);
Homestead-60, Carroll-57 (Feb.19)
Carroll-55, at Carmel-46 (Feb.13)
at SOUTHPORT
(1)North Central (Marion Co.) [22-3] over (3)Terre Haute South [21-6]
(2)Southport [20-6] over (4)Connersville [21-5]
North Central the winner
* A likely finale between NC and Southport could be a classic. I'm guessing
that one or both of these teams might be a bit overconfident for their first
round games---which might bode well for Connersville and T.H.South.
Otherwise, those latter two squads are a bit out of their league.
* NC and Southport have played far stronger schedules than T.H.South.
South, in turn, has played a much tougher schedule than Connersville.
* Southport has won 15 of their last 16 games; Connersville 12 of their
last 14; NC 11 of 13; and THS 9 of 10.
* This is Connersville first regional since 1997; Southport's first since
2000; THS' first since 2009; and NC's first since 2011.
* NC and THS have a much higher offensive average than the other two
teams. Connersville, at less than 43 ppg, is easily the lowest in
defensive ppg.
* Prior Score: Southport-70, North Central-48 (Jan.13)
at SEYMOUR
(1)New Albany [23-1] over (3)Bloomington South [21-4]
(2)Evansville Reitz [21-4] over (4)Franklin Central [18-6]
New Albany the winner
* An exciting group of teams here. Both South and Reitz are chomping
at the bit to get another shot at NA. All three are capable of winning
this thing. And don't sell FC short. Year after year, this school never seems
to get much recognition, but they just keep winning. I would't be surprised
to see them win one game, but two might be a bit of a stretch.
* All of these teams have played outstanding schedules with South's
and FC's a little stronger than the other two.
* New Albany has won 20 games in a row and South 15 in a row. Reitz
has won 11 of their last 12.
* FC is making their fourth straight regional appearance. Reitz won this
regional last year. New Albany is making their third straight trip and
South their second straight. Both NA and South lost to Reitz last year.
* NA and Reitz have much higher ppg averages than South and FC. But
Reitz allows a lot more points as well.
* Prior Scores: New Albany-72, at Bloomington South-68 (Nov.28)
New Albany-72, Evans.Reitz-63 (Dec.30)
Bloomington South-75, at Franklin Central-64 (Jan.23)
CLASS 3A
at KANKAKEE VALLEY
(2)Mishawaka Marian [21-4] over (3)Twin Lakes [20-6]
(1)Griffith [23-3] over (4)Northwestern [10-12]
Griffith the winner
* Marian has played a slightly tougher schedule than the other three teams
* Marian has won 10 of their last 11 games; Twin Lakes 8 of last 10
* Griffith is the defending regional champ. Twin Lakes is making their
third straight regional appearance--they lost in first round to Griffith last
year. This is Marian's first appearance since 2012; Northwestern's first
since 2008.
* Griffith has given up far fewer ppg than the other three schools.
* Prior Score: Twin Lakes-71, at Northwestern-66 (Jan.29)
at MARION
(1)Marion [19-7] over (3)Columbia City [20-6]
(2)Northwood [23-2] over (4)Angola [25-2]
Marion the winner
* Another case where home court advantage will probably determine
the winner.
* Marion has played by far the toughest schedule; Angola the weakest
* CC has won 14 of their last 16 games; Northwood 20 of 21: Angola
12 of 13.
* Marion is in their first regional since 2009. Angola-their first since
1999. NW is in their third straight regional. CC was here last year,
losing a first round game to Northwood.
* Marion scores the most points per game by a large margin, but also gives
up a lot more per game.
at GREENCASTLE
(3)Tri-West [20-6] over (4)Northview [13-14)
(1)Park Tudor [20-4] over (2)Brebeuf Jesuit [16-9]
Park-Tudor the winner
* Park-Tudor and Brebeuf have played much tougher schedules than Tri-West
and Northview.
* Park-Tudor has won 11 of their last 12 games; Tri-West 9 of their last 10.
* This is Brebeuf's first regional appearance since 2010; Northview's first
since 2004. Tri-West is making their third straight appearance.
Park-Tudor is in a regional for the sixth time in the last seventh years.
They've won the last two 2A state titles.
* Park-Tudor's defensive ppg average is far lower than the other three teams.
* Prior Scores: Tri-West-83, at Northview-72 (Jan.27)
Park-Tudor-47, Brebeuf-39 (Feb.6)
Brebeuf-62, Tri-West-52 (Feb.13)
Park-Tudor-48, Tri-West-46 (Dec.12)
at WASHINGTON
(2)Silver Creek [21-4] over (3)Greensburg [16-7]
(1)Evansville Bosse [16-10] over (4)Pike Central [20-5]
Bosse the winner
* Bosse and Silver Creek are the class of this field. The other two
squads will have to hope they are being overlooked.
* Bosse has played a far tougher schedule than the other teams here.
* SC has won 10 of their last 11 games; Greensburg 9 of their last 11; and
Bosse 8 of 10.
* Greensburg is appearing in their fifth straight regional; SC their third
straight. Pike Central is in a regional for the first time since 1997;
Bosse the first time since 2013
* Bosse scores a lot more ppg than the others, but gives up a lot more as well.
