Good afternoon.
Shown below are my selections for this weekend’s regional games, along with some
comments. Most of the historical info referenced was derived from John Harrell’s great
web site. The numbers in parentheses by each team’s name is how I rank the teams in
each regional, with #1 indicating the team most likely to win, #4 the least likely, etc.
Sectional Prediction Results: Last week I picked 40 out of 64 sectional winners correctly
for 63%. For all games played, I selected 265 out of 335 games correctly for 79%.
Have a great day.
Dan
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CLASS 2A
at NORTH JUDSON
(1)Hammond Noll [18-7] over (2)Marquette Catholic [19-8]
(3)Ft. Wayne Canterbury [14-10] over (4)Westview [13-11]
* Noll the winner
* This site features four teams that have had great tourney success in recent
years.
* Canterbury has played by far the toughest schedule. Noll's schedule was
far stronger than Westview and Marquette.
* Marian has won 10 of their last 11 games; Twin Lakes 8 of their last 10.
* Noll is the defending regional champion and is appearing in their third
straight regional. Marquette is also playing in their third straight regional,
the previous two at the 1A level. Canterbury is playing in their second
straight regional. They lost to Noll in the first round last year.
* Westview has by far both the lowest ppg average and the lowest ppg defensive
average.
* Prior Score: Noll-60, at Marquette-50 (Jan.8)
at LAPEL
(2)Oak Hill [22-3] over (4)Covington [16-9]
(1)Lapel [22-4] over (3)Eastern (Greentown) [21-5]
Lapel the winner
* An Oak Hill-Lapel title game could be one of the day's top matchups.
If the game were on a neutral court, I think OH would have a great shot.
But it's not.
* Lapel has easily played the toughest schedule of this group; Covington
the weakest.
* Oak Hill has won 14 of their last 15 games; Eastern 9 of 10; Covington 6 of 7.
* Eastern is making their first regional appearance since 1956. Covington their
first since 2010. Oak Hill is playing in their second straight regional. Lapel
hasn't been in a regional since 2005--when they won the 1A state title.
* All of the teams have given up just 53 ppg--or less.
* Prior Score: Oak Hill-62, at Eastern -55 (Feb.4)
at GREENFIELD-CENTRAL
(2)Northeastern [22-4] over (4)Cloverdale [19-7]
(1)Indpls.Howe [20-7] over (3)Indpls.Broad Ripple [18-7]
Howe the winner
* Northeastern has had a nice run the last three years. And with Park-Tudor
no longer around, this is a great opportunity for them to win this regional.
Still, I think they'll have difficulty against the Howe-BR winner in the
title game.
* Cloverdale has definitely played the weakest schedule of this group.
* Broad Ripple has won 9 games in a row. Howe has won 9 of their last 11.
Cloverdale has won 10 of their last 11; Northeastern 12 of 13.
* Cloverdale is playing in their second straight regional; Northeastern their
third straight. Ripple hasn't been here since 2013; Howe since 2007.
* Howe is the highest scoring team here, but also gives up the most points.
* Prior Score: Broad Ripple-75, Howe-68 (Dec.12)
at PAOLI
(3)South Spencer [17-8] over (4)Providence [17-7]
(1)Linton [22-4] over (2)North Decatur [18-6]
Linton the winner
* Not much difference in strength of schedule for these teams
* Linton has won 15 of their last 16 games; South Spencer 10 of their
last 11; North Decatur 8 of 9.
* Linton is making their fourth straight regional appearance. They won
in 2013 as well as last year. ND and Providence are both in a regional
for the first time since 2012. South Spencer is regional bound for the
first time since 1998.
CLASS 1A
at TRITON
(1)Gary 21st Century [18-6] over (3)Triton [18-7]
(2)Ft. Wayne Blackhawk [16-11] over (4)South Newton [23-2]
21st Century the winner
* Blackhawk has played a far tougher schedule than the other three teams.
Gary's schedule was much tougher than Triton's on SN's.
* SN has won 17 straight games. Triton has won 11 of their last 13 games;
Gary 10 of their last 11; and Blackhawk 8 of their last 9.
* Gary is making their first regional appearance since 2013. Blackhawk is
in their third straight regional. Triton was in six straight regionals (2008
thru 2013). South Newton is in their first regional since 2001.
* Gary's 79 ppg offensive average is far higher than any of the other schools.
But so is their defensive average--64 ppg.
* Special commendation to South Newton. They were 7-76 in the 2011
thru 2014 time period. What a dramatic turnaround the last couple of years.
at FRANKFORT
(3)Lafayette Central Catholic [16-9] over (4)North Vermillion [19-9]
(1)Liberty Christian [22-4] over (2)Seton Catholic [23-3]
Liberty Christian the winner
* The Liberty and Seton game might well be the true 1A state title game.
But, whoever wins will have to guard against a letdown against a decent
LCC squad in the night game.
* LCC and LC have both played strong schedules for a 1A school. NV has
played one of the weaker schedules in the state.
* NV has won 9 of their last 11 games; LC 10 of 11; SC 13 of 14
* LCC is making their 15th straight regional appearance. They last won in 2013.
NV hasn't been in a regional since 1999. LC is in their 5th straight
regional. They've won the last two. SC is in their third straight regional.
* SC has lost to LC is each of the last two regionals. LCC has lost to LC in
three of the last four regionals. They DID defeat LC in 2013.
* LCC has by far given up the most ppg--over 64
* Prior Score: Liberty Christian-55, Seton Catholic -49 (Jan.15)
at MARTINSVILLE
(1)Indpls.Tindley [21-5] over (4)Southwestern (Shelby) [14-10]
(2)Bloomfield [23-3] over (3)Indpls.Arlington [20-5]
Tindley the winner
* Southwestern's schedule is far weaker than the other three schools.
* Bloomfield has won 13 of their last 14 games; Tindley 9 of their last 10.
* Arlington is playing in their first regional since 2002; Bloomfield their first
since 2009; and it's Southwestern's first since 2011. This is Tindley's second
straight appearance.
* Arlington is easily the highest scoring team here, with Bloomfield the
stingiest in allowing points.
at LOOGOOTEE
(1)Wood Memorial [19-8] over (2)Rock Creek Academy [16-8]
(3)North Daviess [14-11] over (4)West Washington [18-8]
Wood Memorial the winner
* Rock Creek has played the toughest schedule amongst this group
* Wood Memorial has won 10 of their last 12 games; WW has won 8 in
a row; ND six in a row; and RC six of their last seven.
* Wood Memorial is making their second straight regional appearance. ND
and RC are both making a regional trip for the first time since 2011; and
it's WW first since 1996.
* Prior Score: Wood Memorial-48, North Daviess-45 (Dec.18)
Shown below are my selections for this weekend’s regional games, along with some
comments. Most of the historical info referenced was derived from John Harrell’s great
web site. The numbers in parentheses by each team’s name is how I rank the teams in
each regional, with #1 indicating the team most likely to win, #4 the least likely, etc.
Sectional Prediction Results: Last week I picked 40 out of 64 sectional winners correctly
for 63%. For all games played, I selected 265 out of 335 games correctly for 79%.
Have a great day.
Dan
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CLASS 2A
at NORTH JUDSON
(1)Hammond Noll [18-7] over (2)Marquette Catholic [19-8]
(3)Ft. Wayne Canterbury [14-10] over (4)Westview [13-11]
* Noll the winner
* This site features four teams that have had great tourney success in recent
years.
* Canterbury has played by far the toughest schedule. Noll's schedule was
far stronger than Westview and Marquette.
* Marian has won 10 of their last 11 games; Twin Lakes 8 of their last 10.
* Noll is the defending regional champion and is appearing in their third
straight regional. Marquette is also playing in their third straight regional,
the previous two at the 1A level. Canterbury is playing in their second
straight regional. They lost to Noll in the first round last year.
* Westview has by far both the lowest ppg average and the lowest ppg defensive
average.
* Prior Score: Noll-60, at Marquette-50 (Jan.8)
at LAPEL
(2)Oak Hill [22-3] over (4)Covington [16-9]
(1)Lapel [22-4] over (3)Eastern (Greentown) [21-5]
Lapel the winner
* An Oak Hill-Lapel title game could be one of the day's top matchups.
If the game were on a neutral court, I think OH would have a great shot.
But it's not.
* Lapel has easily played the toughest schedule of this group; Covington
the weakest.
* Oak Hill has won 14 of their last 15 games; Eastern 9 of 10; Covington 6 of 7.
* Eastern is making their first regional appearance since 1956. Covington their
first since 2010. Oak Hill is playing in their second straight regional. Lapel
hasn't been in a regional since 2005--when they won the 1A state title.
* All of the teams have given up just 53 ppg--or less.
* Prior Score: Oak Hill-62, at Eastern -55 (Feb.4)
at GREENFIELD-CENTRAL
(2)Northeastern [22-4] over (4)Cloverdale [19-7]
(1)Indpls.Howe [20-7] over (3)Indpls.Broad Ripple [18-7]
Howe the winner
* Northeastern has had a nice run the last three years. And with Park-Tudor
no longer around, this is a great opportunity for them to win this regional.
Still, I think they'll have difficulty against the Howe-BR winner in the
title game.
* Cloverdale has definitely played the weakest schedule of this group.
* Broad Ripple has won 9 games in a row. Howe has won 9 of their last 11.
Cloverdale has won 10 of their last 11; Northeastern 12 of 13.
* Cloverdale is playing in their second straight regional; Northeastern their
third straight. Ripple hasn't been here since 2013; Howe since 2007.
* Howe is the highest scoring team here, but also gives up the most points.
* Prior Score: Broad Ripple-75, Howe-68 (Dec.12)
at PAOLI
(3)South Spencer [17-8] over (4)Providence [17-7]
(1)Linton [22-4] over (2)North Decatur [18-6]
Linton the winner
* Not much difference in strength of schedule for these teams
* Linton has won 15 of their last 16 games; South Spencer 10 of their
last 11; North Decatur 8 of 9.
* Linton is making their fourth straight regional appearance. They won
in 2013 as well as last year. ND and Providence are both in a regional
for the first time since 2012. South Spencer is regional bound for the
first time since 1998.
CLASS 1A
at TRITON
(1)Gary 21st Century [18-6] over (3)Triton [18-7]
(2)Ft. Wayne Blackhawk [16-11] over (4)South Newton [23-2]
21st Century the winner
* Blackhawk has played a far tougher schedule than the other three teams.
Gary's schedule was much tougher than Triton's on SN's.
* SN has won 17 straight games. Triton has won 11 of their last 13 games;
Gary 10 of their last 11; and Blackhawk 8 of their last 9.
* Gary is making their first regional appearance since 2013. Blackhawk is
in their third straight regional. Triton was in six straight regionals (2008
thru 2013). South Newton is in their first regional since 2001.
* Gary's 79 ppg offensive average is far higher than any of the other schools.
But so is their defensive average--64 ppg.
* Special commendation to South Newton. They were 7-76 in the 2011
thru 2014 time period. What a dramatic turnaround the last couple of years.
at FRANKFORT
(3)Lafayette Central Catholic [16-9] over (4)North Vermillion [19-9]
(1)Liberty Christian [22-4] over (2)Seton Catholic [23-3]
Liberty Christian the winner
* The Liberty and Seton game might well be the true 1A state title game.
But, whoever wins will have to guard against a letdown against a decent
LCC squad in the night game.
* LCC and LC have both played strong schedules for a 1A school. NV has
played one of the weaker schedules in the state.
* NV has won 9 of their last 11 games; LC 10 of 11; SC 13 of 14
* LCC is making their 15th straight regional appearance. They last won in 2013.
NV hasn't been in a regional since 1999. LC is in their 5th straight
regional. They've won the last two. SC is in their third straight regional.
* SC has lost to LC is each of the last two regionals. LCC has lost to LC in
three of the last four regionals. They DID defeat LC in 2013.
* LCC has by far given up the most ppg--over 64
* Prior Score: Liberty Christian-55, Seton Catholic -49 (Jan.15)
at MARTINSVILLE
(1)Indpls.Tindley [21-5] over (4)Southwestern (Shelby) [14-10]
(2)Bloomfield [23-3] over (3)Indpls.Arlington [20-5]
Tindley the winner
* Southwestern's schedule is far weaker than the other three schools.
* Bloomfield has won 13 of their last 14 games; Tindley 9 of their last 10.
* Arlington is playing in their first regional since 2002; Bloomfield their first
since 2009; and it's Southwestern's first since 2011. This is Tindley's second
straight appearance.
* Arlington is easily the highest scoring team here, with Bloomfield the
stingiest in allowing points.
at LOOGOOTEE
(1)Wood Memorial [19-8] over (2)Rock Creek Academy [16-8]
(3)North Daviess [14-11] over (4)West Washington [18-8]
Wood Memorial the winner
* Rock Creek has played the toughest schedule amongst this group
* Wood Memorial has won 10 of their last 12 games; WW has won 8 in
a row; ND six in a row; and RC six of their last seven.
* Wood Memorial is making their second straight regional appearance. ND
and RC are both making a regional trip for the first time since 2011; and
it's WW first since 1996.
* Prior Score: Wood Memorial-48, North Daviess-45 (Dec.18)
