Good afternoon.
Shown below are my selections for this weekend’s regional games, along with some
comments. Most of the historical info referenced was derived from John Harrell’s great web site.
The numbers in parentheses by each team’s name is how I rank the teams in
each regional, with #1 indicating the team most likely to win, #4 the least likely, etc.
Sectional Prediction Results: Last week I picked only 33 out of 64 sectional winners correctly for 52%. For all games played, I selected 258 out of 335 games correctly for 77%. (I took a beating in 1A and 2A title games. 12 of my picks went down on
Saturday night.)
I'll post 1A and 2A predictions as a separate post.
Have a great day.
Dan
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CLASS 4A
at MICHIGAN CITY
(1)South Bend Adams [21-4] over (2)Merrillville [19-7]
(3)Warsaw [17-9] over (4)East Chicago Central [15-9]
S.B.Adams the winner
* This is a real toss-up regional. A case can be made for all of these teams.
I'm going with the hottest team--S.B.Adams. Their two recent wins over city rival Riley proved they are for real.
* Prior Scores: Dec.2--ECC-69, Merrillville-67; Feb.11-Merrillville-53, Warsaw-48.
* This is the first regional since 2013 for both Merrillville and S.B.Adams.
Both Warsaw and ECC were here last year with Warsaw winning the title.
* Adams has won 18 of their last 19; Merrillville 6 of their last 7. Warsaw prior to the tourney had lost 5 of their last 8.
at LOGANSPORT
(1)Fort Wayne North [24-2] over (3)Homestead [23-3]
(2)McCutcheon [23-2] over (4)Carmel [21-4]
F.W.North the winner
* Perhaps the elite regional in the state this year. F.W.North has tons of talent. The other three have lots of experience at this level and are led by excellent coaches. North's twin towers (Butz and Brooks) will cause the others a lot of match-up problems.
* Prior Scores: Dec.29-F.W.North-56, Homestead-49; Jan.20-F.W.North-62, at Homestead-60.
* Homestead is playing in their 4th straight regional; Carmel and McCutcheon their 3rd straight. North is making their first trip since 2014. McCutcheon won here last year, edging both Carmel and Homestead.
* Carmel has won 9 of their last 10 games.
* McCutcheon's schedule is much weaker than the other three teams
at SOUTHPORT
(2)Connersville [26-1] over (4)Brownsburg [18-6]
(1)North Central (Marion Co,)[23-4] over (3)Ben Davis [19-5]
North Central the winner
* I'm picking NC because I think they've got the most talent. But, their performance has been a bit sporadic the last couple of months. BD is playing very well and Connersville is a smart, solid team that has a lot of /
experience. They are sitting in a nice spot, playing the early game and hoping that NC and BD wear each other out.
* Prior Scores: Jan.06-NC-68, BD-57; Jan.11-NC-70, BD-59
* Connersville and NC are both appearing in the regional for the 2nd straight year. Both lost in the first round last year. This is BD's first appearance since 2010 and Brownsburg's third regional in the last four years.
* BD has won 10 games in a row; Brownsburg 7 of their last 8 and NC 9 of their last 10.
* Connersville's schedule has been much weaker than the other three teams.
at SEYMOUR
(1)New Albany [24-3] over (4)Center Grove [17-7]
(2)Castle [22-3] over (3)Bloomington South [22-4]
New Albany the winner
* Prior Scores: Nov.26--New Albany-61, Bloom.South-38; Feb.11--Castle-62, Bloom.South-54
* NA, the defending 4A champ, is making their fourth straight regional appearance. South is appearing for the third straight year. They lost to NA last year. Castle and CG are making their first appearances since 2012 and 2011 respectively.
* NA has won 21 of their last 22 games; South 16 of 17; Castle 10 of 11; and CG 6 of their last 7.
* Castle's schedule is a little bit weaker than the other three contestants.
CLASS 3A
at KANKAKEE VALLEY
(1)Griffith [23-3] over (4)West Lafayette [16-9]
(2)Culver Academy [21-2] over (3)Twin Lakes [22-3]
Griffith the winner
* This a nice group of teams. West Lafayette would appear to be the weak link, but they've played a tougher schedule than the other three. Griffith gets the nod because they play the early game against a supposedly weak opponent and have tons of tourney experience.
* Prior Scores: Dec.16-Culver-57, at TL-43; Jan.21-TL-57, at WL-46; Jan.27- Culver-60, at WL-33.
* This is W.Lafayette's first regional since 2013 and Culver's first since 2011. On the other hand, TL is making their 4th straight appearance and Griffith their 3rd straight. TL has not won a regional game the previous three years while Griffith is the two-time defending champion.
* Both Griffith and TL have won 10 of their last 11 games.
at MARION
(1)Fort Wayne Luers [17-7] over (4)Fairfield [13-12]
(2)New Haven [19-7] over (3)Tipton [16-8]
Ft.Wayne Luers the winner
* Luers is the big favorite here. They received a very favorable draw.
* Prior Score: Feb.20-Luers-69, New Haven-59.
* Luers has by far played the toughest schedule; Tipton the weakest.
* This is Luers and New Haven's first regional appearances since 2013;
Tipton's first since 2014; and Fairfield's first since 2010.
* Luers and New Haven have both won 11 of their last 13 games; Tipton 9 of their last 10.
* Fairfield upset Northwood by 8 points in the sectional final. It avenged a 34 point loss incurred earlier in the year!
at GREENCASTLE
(1)Indianapolis Attucks [21-4] over (4)Northview [18-8]
(2)Tri-West [22-3] over (3)Danville [19-8]
Attucks the winner
* Another nice group of teams. Attucks and Tri-West are clearly the favorites, but Northview and resurgent Danville are very capable as well.
* Prior Scores: Dec.10-TW-59, NV-58; Jan.6-TW-52, Danville-40; Jan.27-TW-68, Danville-55.
* Danville has had a strange season,. They won their first 9 games of the season, and then lost 6 of their next 8. After that, they've now won 8 of 10.
* Northview has played by far the weakest schedule.
* Northview is playing in their second straight regional. They lost to Tri-West in the first round last year. Attucks is in their third regional in the last four years. Danville is making the trip for the first time since 2013. And Tri- West is playing at this level for the fourth straight time.
* Attucks has won 14 of their last 15 games TW has won 12 in a row.
at WASHINGTON
(3)Greensburg [17-6] over (4)Pike Central [14-11]
(1)Evansville Bosse [18-7] over (2)Brownstown Central [24-2]
Evansville Bosse the winner
* Bosse and Brownstown are the two heavyweights here. The Pike Central- Greensburg winner will be in a good position for a big upset at night.
* Bosse has played much tougher competition than the other teams here.
* This is Brownstown first regional since 2013. Bosse and Pike Central both appeared here last year, with Bosse winning this regional. Greensburg is in regional play for the sixth straight season.
* Bosse has won 7 games in a row while Greensburg has won 11 of their last 12 games. PC lost 6 of their last 9 prior to sectional play.
Shown below are my selections for this weekend’s regional games, along with some
comments. Most of the historical info referenced was derived from John Harrell’s great web site.
The numbers in parentheses by each team’s name is how I rank the teams in
each regional, with #1 indicating the team most likely to win, #4 the least likely, etc.
Sectional Prediction Results: Last week I picked only 33 out of 64 sectional winners correctly for 52%. For all games played, I selected 258 out of 335 games correctly for 77%. (I took a beating in 1A and 2A title games. 12 of my picks went down on
Saturday night.)
I'll post 1A and 2A predictions as a separate post.
Have a great day.
Dan
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CLASS 4A
at MICHIGAN CITY
(1)South Bend Adams [21-4] over (2)Merrillville [19-7]
(3)Warsaw [17-9] over (4)East Chicago Central [15-9]
S.B.Adams the winner
* This is a real toss-up regional. A case can be made for all of these teams.
I'm going with the hottest team--S.B.Adams. Their two recent wins over city rival Riley proved they are for real.
* Prior Scores: Dec.2--ECC-69, Merrillville-67; Feb.11-Merrillville-53, Warsaw-48.
* This is the first regional since 2013 for both Merrillville and S.B.Adams.
Both Warsaw and ECC were here last year with Warsaw winning the title.
* Adams has won 18 of their last 19; Merrillville 6 of their last 7. Warsaw prior to the tourney had lost 5 of their last 8.
at LOGANSPORT
(1)Fort Wayne North [24-2] over (3)Homestead [23-3]
(2)McCutcheon [23-2] over (4)Carmel [21-4]
F.W.North the winner
* Perhaps the elite regional in the state this year. F.W.North has tons of talent. The other three have lots of experience at this level and are led by excellent coaches. North's twin towers (Butz and Brooks) will cause the others a lot of match-up problems.
* Prior Scores: Dec.29-F.W.North-56, Homestead-49; Jan.20-F.W.North-62, at Homestead-60.
* Homestead is playing in their 4th straight regional; Carmel and McCutcheon their 3rd straight. North is making their first trip since 2014. McCutcheon won here last year, edging both Carmel and Homestead.
* Carmel has won 9 of their last 10 games.
* McCutcheon's schedule is much weaker than the other three teams
at SOUTHPORT
(2)Connersville [26-1] over (4)Brownsburg [18-6]
(1)North Central (Marion Co,)[23-4] over (3)Ben Davis [19-5]
North Central the winner
* I'm picking NC because I think they've got the most talent. But, their performance has been a bit sporadic the last couple of months. BD is playing very well and Connersville is a smart, solid team that has a lot of /
experience. They are sitting in a nice spot, playing the early game and hoping that NC and BD wear each other out.
* Prior Scores: Jan.06-NC-68, BD-57; Jan.11-NC-70, BD-59
* Connersville and NC are both appearing in the regional for the 2nd straight year. Both lost in the first round last year. This is BD's first appearance since 2010 and Brownsburg's third regional in the last four years.
* BD has won 10 games in a row; Brownsburg 7 of their last 8 and NC 9 of their last 10.
* Connersville's schedule has been much weaker than the other three teams.
at SEYMOUR
(1)New Albany [24-3] over (4)Center Grove [17-7]
(2)Castle [22-3] over (3)Bloomington South [22-4]
New Albany the winner
* Prior Scores: Nov.26--New Albany-61, Bloom.South-38; Feb.11--Castle-62, Bloom.South-54
* NA, the defending 4A champ, is making their fourth straight regional appearance. South is appearing for the third straight year. They lost to NA last year. Castle and CG are making their first appearances since 2012 and 2011 respectively.
* NA has won 21 of their last 22 games; South 16 of 17; Castle 10 of 11; and CG 6 of their last 7.
* Castle's schedule is a little bit weaker than the other three contestants.
CLASS 3A
at KANKAKEE VALLEY
(1)Griffith [23-3] over (4)West Lafayette [16-9]
(2)Culver Academy [21-2] over (3)Twin Lakes [22-3]
Griffith the winner
* This a nice group of teams. West Lafayette would appear to be the weak link, but they've played a tougher schedule than the other three. Griffith gets the nod because they play the early game against a supposedly weak opponent and have tons of tourney experience.
* Prior Scores: Dec.16-Culver-57, at TL-43; Jan.21-TL-57, at WL-46; Jan.27- Culver-60, at WL-33.
* This is W.Lafayette's first regional since 2013 and Culver's first since 2011. On the other hand, TL is making their 4th straight appearance and Griffith their 3rd straight. TL has not won a regional game the previous three years while Griffith is the two-time defending champion.
* Both Griffith and TL have won 10 of their last 11 games.
at MARION
(1)Fort Wayne Luers [17-7] over (4)Fairfield [13-12]
(2)New Haven [19-7] over (3)Tipton [16-8]
Ft.Wayne Luers the winner
* Luers is the big favorite here. They received a very favorable draw.
* Prior Score: Feb.20-Luers-69, New Haven-59.
* Luers has by far played the toughest schedule; Tipton the weakest.
* This is Luers and New Haven's first regional appearances since 2013;
Tipton's first since 2014; and Fairfield's first since 2010.
* Luers and New Haven have both won 11 of their last 13 games; Tipton 9 of their last 10.
* Fairfield upset Northwood by 8 points in the sectional final. It avenged a 34 point loss incurred earlier in the year!
at GREENCASTLE
(1)Indianapolis Attucks [21-4] over (4)Northview [18-8]
(2)Tri-West [22-3] over (3)Danville [19-8]
Attucks the winner
* Another nice group of teams. Attucks and Tri-West are clearly the favorites, but Northview and resurgent Danville are very capable as well.
* Prior Scores: Dec.10-TW-59, NV-58; Jan.6-TW-52, Danville-40; Jan.27-TW-68, Danville-55.
* Danville has had a strange season,. They won their first 9 games of the season, and then lost 6 of their next 8. After that, they've now won 8 of 10.
* Northview has played by far the weakest schedule.
* Northview is playing in their second straight regional. They lost to Tri-West in the first round last year. Attucks is in their third regional in the last four years. Danville is making the trip for the first time since 2013. And Tri- West is playing at this level for the fourth straight time.
* Attucks has won 14 of their last 15 games TW has won 12 in a row.
at WASHINGTON
(3)Greensburg [17-6] over (4)Pike Central [14-11]
(1)Evansville Bosse [18-7] over (2)Brownstown Central [24-2]
Evansville Bosse the winner
* Bosse and Brownstown are the two heavyweights here. The Pike Central- Greensburg winner will be in a good position for a big upset at night.
* Bosse has played much tougher competition than the other teams here.
* This is Brownstown first regional since 2013. Bosse and Pike Central both appeared here last year, with Bosse winning this regional. Greensburg is in regional play for the sixth straight season.
* Bosse has won 7 games in a row while Greensburg has won 11 of their last 12 games. PC lost 6 of their last 9 prior to sectional play.
