Went and saw Northwestern's girls (enrollment 595) defeat Carmel (enrollment 5300), at Carmel, by 25 points Saturday. (It was a 30-point lead until Northwestern's bench gave up five points in the final minute.) Small schools find ways to beat big schools every season, but this year presents a situation we've not seen since the move to class twenty-two years ago -- a public school of under 600 students will be competing in (and have a realistic chance to win) the Class 4A tournament.
Reasons this is such a rare occurrence: 1) Only 37% of Class 3A schools could be considered "small" (using a 650 enrollment as cutoff). 2) Because of the IHSAA's flawed Success Factor rules, only half the number of times that teams achieve the official definition of two-year tournament success actually results in their moving up, because it has to be the right two years, i.e. not two years that straddle scheduled sectional realignment. And 3) When a small public school has that kind of two-year tourney run, it's usually going to be with core groups of juniors and then seniors, meaning most teams that successful will be graduating the very reason for their success just as they move up to stiffer competition.
But this year, Northwestern has in fact bucked the odds and will be playing for all the marbles with most of last year's core unit intact. And while it won't be easy, actually winning 4A is definitely a possibility. They're currently ranked #1 in both polls. Go Tigers!
Reasons this is such a rare occurrence: 1) Only 37% of Class 3A schools could be considered "small" (using a 650 enrollment as cutoff). 2) Because of the IHSAA's flawed Success Factor rules, only half the number of times that teams achieve the official definition of two-year tournament success actually results in their moving up, because it has to be the right two years, i.e. not two years that straddle scheduled sectional realignment. And 3) When a small public school has that kind of two-year tourney run, it's usually going to be with core groups of juniors and then seniors, meaning most teams that successful will be graduating the very reason for their success just as they move up to stiffer competition.
But this year, Northwestern has in fact bucked the odds and will be playing for all the marbles with most of last year's core unit intact. And while it won't be easy, actually winning 4A is definitely a possibility. They're currently ranked #1 in both polls. Go Tigers!
