Fans,
Shown below are my 56th annual state tournament predictions. For each class, I’ve shown my state champion selection, as well as the top contenders from each of the two semi-state areas.
Again this year, I’ve hypothetically allocated $100 to each sectional. I then asked myself if I were to bet that amount of money on each sectional, how would I distribute this amount among the teams that I feel have any chance of winning. This provides a better measuring stick for more specifically differentiating the chances of each of the sectional contenders. And again this year I’ve also shown my selection for EVERY sectional game.
Tournament Prediction “History”-----last year I predicted 79% of the games correctly. 2013 was my best year of all time with 81.5% of all games being picked correctly. My worst year was my first year, 1962, when I only got 63.5% of the games correct.
And, as always, a big Thank You to John Harrell’s great website for providing so much useful data in such an easily retrievable format !
Enjoy the games!
Dan
CLASS 4A
Class Champion: Ft.Wayne North
Top 5 Contenders From 1) F.W.North; 2) McCutcheon; 3) S.B.Riley;
the North Semi-State: 4) Hamilton SE; 5) Logansport
Top 5 Contenders From 1) North Central; 2) New Albany; 3) Castle;
the South Semi-State: 4) Warren Central; 5) Bloomington South
SUMMARY:
Picking a 4A champion for this year with any degree of confidence is almost an impossible task. There are so many good teams and so much parity this year. One trend I've noticed in 4A competition this year is how often a team's performance has changed from one game to another. First a major victory followed, sometimes the next night, by a puzzling loss to what would appear to be an inferior team. Then back to an impressive victory the following week.
At any rate, the Legends of Fort Wayne North are my choice to win the 2017 Class 4A title. North has played a tough schedule, they have plenty of size, quickness, and depth, and they have two genuine stars in Keion Brooks and Jaylen Butz.
What North also has is one of the toughest routes possible to achieve a state title. At the sectional level, in the championship game, they'll likely have to deal with either Fort Wayne Snider or Carroll. Snider is one of only two teams that have beaten North this year, garnering a 3-point win in mid-December---on a last-second shot. With Malik Williams, Snider is a threat against anyone. Carroll, playing on their home court, is a difficult team to handle as well. North barely escaped with a one-point win at Carroll in early February.
If North survives sectional play, they'll then journey to the Logansport for what should be a power-packed regional. First, they would have to deal with a smart, experienced Homestead team. North has edged Homestead twice this year. Can they beat a good team three times? If they make it to the regional finale, they would encounter someone like Hamilton SE, Carmel, McCutcheon, or Logansport. Carmel and McCutcheon were there last year. Logansport has only one loss this year and would be playing on their home floor. HSE has several impressive wins this year as well
At the semi-state level, the Legends might encounter South Bend Riley, or the survivor of the Michigan City sectional: likely Crown Point or Valpo. Riley gave North their other loss just a few days ago in a very exciting, emotional game. A rematch between these two would likely be a tourney highlight.
In a state final, North might have to deal with North Central with Kris Wilkes or New Albany with Romeo Langford or Castle with Jack Nunge. Or maybe a well-balanced Warren Central team. Not much to choose from if you're a fan of the Legends.
Here are my predictions and the choices for each sectional game in 4A.
*1. at EAST CHICAGO: East Chicago Central-$40, Munster-25, Lake Central-20, Lowell-15
Comments: Lots of parity here. Still, I think ECC is the smart choice. They are playing at home, are the defending champion, received a bye, and have played the toughest schedule. Here are the picks:
Hammond Morton over Highland
Munster over Gary West; Lake Central over Lowell
East Chicago over Hammond Morton; Munster over Lake Central
East Chicago over Munster
*2. at MICHIGAN CITY: Crown Point-$30, Valpo-25, Merrillville-20, Chesterton-15,
Michigan City-10
Comments: . If I was forced to attend only one sectional tournament in the entire state, this probably would be the one I would choose. Great longtime rivalries are featured here, along with five high quality teams. I really think Valpo may be the best team, but the draw did them no favors. Crown Point is the defending champ and a slightly favorable draw may be all they need to squeak through with another title. During the year, Valpo and Merrillville split two close games. Crown Point edged both Valpo and Merrillville. And don't forget host Michigan City. They beat both Crown Point and Merrillville on the road this year. Here are the picks:
Valparaiso over Michigan City
Crown Point over Hobart; Chesterton over Portage
Valparaiso over Merrillville; Crown Point over Chesterton
Crown Point over Valparaiso
*3. at SOUTH BEND WASHINGTON: S.B.Riley-$45, LaPorte-30, S.B.Adams-25
Comments: South Bend Riley was cruising along undefeated until a couple of weeks ago. Then they stumbled in back-to-back games against LaPorte and S.B.Adams. Riley then rebounded with a big win over top-ranked Ft.Wayne North. These three teams (Riley, Adams, LaPorte) are the top contenders at this site and they are all in the same bracket! Riley has played a slightly weaker schedule than the other two contenders. Here’s the picks:
South Bend Washington over Plymouth
South Bend Riley over South Bend Adams; LaPorte over South Bend Clay;
South Bend Washington over Mishawaka; South Bend Riley over LaPorte
South Bend Riley over South Bend Washington
*4. at ELKHART CENTRAL: Warsaw-$55, Elkhart Central-45
Comments: This is a decent group of teams at this site. Still, defending champ Warsaw and a rejuvenated Elkhart Central appear to be the top choices here. EC defeated Warsaw by five points in late January. I'm going to stick with Warsaw due to their experience, tradition, and a much tougher schedule. Here’s the picks:
Goshen over Concord
Elkhart Central over Penn; Warsaw over Northridge
Elkhart Memorial over Goshen; Warsaw over Elkhart Central
Warsaw over Elkhart Memorial
*5. at CARROLL: F.W.North-$50, F.W.Snider-30, Carroll-20
Comments: North is the favorite here, but they'll have to be on top of their game to win the finale against either Snider or Carroll. Snider edged North by three points in mid-December and has won 9 of their last 10 games. Included was an 18 point romp over Carroll in late-January. But these games will be at Carroll where the Chargers are so much tougher. Carroll took down North Central a few days ago and narrowly lost to North (one point) in early February. Here are the picks:
Ft.Wayne North over DeKalb; Carroll over East Noble
Ft.Wayne North over Ft.Wayne Northrop; Ft.Wayne Snider over Carroll
Ft.Wayne North over Ft.Wayne Snider
*6. at FT.WAYNE WAYNE: Homestead-$75, Huntington-25
Comments: Homestead is the clear favorite here over an otherwise average field. They will be going for their fourth straight sectional title and fifth in the last six years. Perhaps the only team that has a legitimate shot at them is Huntington. Homestead edged Huntington by four points in November. Here are the picks:
Muncie Central over Jay County; Homestead over Ft.Wayne South
Huntington over Muncie Central; Homestead over Ft.Wayne Wayne
Homestead over Huntington
*7. at LAFAYETTE: McCutcheon-$45, Logansport-40, Zionsville-15
Comments: This is a solid group of teams, with all of them having a winning record. McCutcheon and Logansport are the co-favorites here with Zionsville
a solid dark horse. In mid-January, Logan won at McCutcheon by five points. Then, the next night, McCutcheon won at Zionsville by nine. Here are the picks:
Zionsville over Harrison; Kokomo over Lafayette Jeff
Logansport over Zionsville; McCutcheon over Kokomo
McCutcheon over Logansport
*8. at CARNEL: Hamilton SE-$55, Carmel-45
Comments: Carmel or HSE? That's pretty much been the common question over the last few years for this sectional grouping. Both have had outstanding seasons. However, it's hard to ignore the 21 point drubbing Carmel suffered a few days ago against HSE. Here are the picks:
Hamilton SE over Fishers
Carmel over Westfield; Noblesville over Guerin Catholic
Hamilton SE over Anderson; Carmel over Noblesville
Hamilton SE over Carmel
Shown below are my 56th annual state tournament predictions. For each class, I’ve shown my state champion selection, as well as the top contenders from each of the two semi-state areas.
Again this year, I’ve hypothetically allocated $100 to each sectional. I then asked myself if I were to bet that amount of money on each sectional, how would I distribute this amount among the teams that I feel have any chance of winning. This provides a better measuring stick for more specifically differentiating the chances of each of the sectional contenders. And again this year I’ve also shown my selection for EVERY sectional game.
Tournament Prediction “History”-----last year I predicted 79% of the games correctly. 2013 was my best year of all time with 81.5% of all games being picked correctly. My worst year was my first year, 1962, when I only got 63.5% of the games correct.
And, as always, a big Thank You to John Harrell’s great website for providing so much useful data in such an easily retrievable format !
Enjoy the games!
Dan
CLASS 4A
Class Champion: Ft.Wayne North
Top 5 Contenders From 1) F.W.North; 2) McCutcheon; 3) S.B.Riley;
the North Semi-State: 4) Hamilton SE; 5) Logansport
Top 5 Contenders From 1) North Central; 2) New Albany; 3) Castle;
the South Semi-State: 4) Warren Central; 5) Bloomington South
SUMMARY:
Picking a 4A champion for this year with any degree of confidence is almost an impossible task. There are so many good teams and so much parity this year. One trend I've noticed in 4A competition this year is how often a team's performance has changed from one game to another. First a major victory followed, sometimes the next night, by a puzzling loss to what would appear to be an inferior team. Then back to an impressive victory the following week.
At any rate, the Legends of Fort Wayne North are my choice to win the 2017 Class 4A title. North has played a tough schedule, they have plenty of size, quickness, and depth, and they have two genuine stars in Keion Brooks and Jaylen Butz.
What North also has is one of the toughest routes possible to achieve a state title. At the sectional level, in the championship game, they'll likely have to deal with either Fort Wayne Snider or Carroll. Snider is one of only two teams that have beaten North this year, garnering a 3-point win in mid-December---on a last-second shot. With Malik Williams, Snider is a threat against anyone. Carroll, playing on their home court, is a difficult team to handle as well. North barely escaped with a one-point win at Carroll in early February.
If North survives sectional play, they'll then journey to the Logansport for what should be a power-packed regional. First, they would have to deal with a smart, experienced Homestead team. North has edged Homestead twice this year. Can they beat a good team three times? If they make it to the regional finale, they would encounter someone like Hamilton SE, Carmel, McCutcheon, or Logansport. Carmel and McCutcheon were there last year. Logansport has only one loss this year and would be playing on their home floor. HSE has several impressive wins this year as well
At the semi-state level, the Legends might encounter South Bend Riley, or the survivor of the Michigan City sectional: likely Crown Point or Valpo. Riley gave North their other loss just a few days ago in a very exciting, emotional game. A rematch between these two would likely be a tourney highlight.
In a state final, North might have to deal with North Central with Kris Wilkes or New Albany with Romeo Langford or Castle with Jack Nunge. Or maybe a well-balanced Warren Central team. Not much to choose from if you're a fan of the Legends.
Here are my predictions and the choices for each sectional game in 4A.
*1. at EAST CHICAGO: East Chicago Central-$40, Munster-25, Lake Central-20, Lowell-15
Comments: Lots of parity here. Still, I think ECC is the smart choice. They are playing at home, are the defending champion, received a bye, and have played the toughest schedule. Here are the picks:
Hammond Morton over Highland
Munster over Gary West; Lake Central over Lowell
East Chicago over Hammond Morton; Munster over Lake Central
East Chicago over Munster
*2. at MICHIGAN CITY: Crown Point-$30, Valpo-25, Merrillville-20, Chesterton-15,
Michigan City-10
Comments: . If I was forced to attend only one sectional tournament in the entire state, this probably would be the one I would choose. Great longtime rivalries are featured here, along with five high quality teams. I really think Valpo may be the best team, but the draw did them no favors. Crown Point is the defending champ and a slightly favorable draw may be all they need to squeak through with another title. During the year, Valpo and Merrillville split two close games. Crown Point edged both Valpo and Merrillville. And don't forget host Michigan City. They beat both Crown Point and Merrillville on the road this year. Here are the picks:
Valparaiso over Michigan City
Crown Point over Hobart; Chesterton over Portage
Valparaiso over Merrillville; Crown Point over Chesterton
Crown Point over Valparaiso
*3. at SOUTH BEND WASHINGTON: S.B.Riley-$45, LaPorte-30, S.B.Adams-25
Comments: South Bend Riley was cruising along undefeated until a couple of weeks ago. Then they stumbled in back-to-back games against LaPorte and S.B.Adams. Riley then rebounded with a big win over top-ranked Ft.Wayne North. These three teams (Riley, Adams, LaPorte) are the top contenders at this site and they are all in the same bracket! Riley has played a slightly weaker schedule than the other two contenders. Here’s the picks:
South Bend Washington over Plymouth
South Bend Riley over South Bend Adams; LaPorte over South Bend Clay;
South Bend Washington over Mishawaka; South Bend Riley over LaPorte
South Bend Riley over South Bend Washington
*4. at ELKHART CENTRAL: Warsaw-$55, Elkhart Central-45
Comments: This is a decent group of teams at this site. Still, defending champ Warsaw and a rejuvenated Elkhart Central appear to be the top choices here. EC defeated Warsaw by five points in late January. I'm going to stick with Warsaw due to their experience, tradition, and a much tougher schedule. Here’s the picks:
Goshen over Concord
Elkhart Central over Penn; Warsaw over Northridge
Elkhart Memorial over Goshen; Warsaw over Elkhart Central
Warsaw over Elkhart Memorial
*5. at CARROLL: F.W.North-$50, F.W.Snider-30, Carroll-20
Comments: North is the favorite here, but they'll have to be on top of their game to win the finale against either Snider or Carroll. Snider edged North by three points in mid-December and has won 9 of their last 10 games. Included was an 18 point romp over Carroll in late-January. But these games will be at Carroll where the Chargers are so much tougher. Carroll took down North Central a few days ago and narrowly lost to North (one point) in early February. Here are the picks:
Ft.Wayne North over DeKalb; Carroll over East Noble
Ft.Wayne North over Ft.Wayne Northrop; Ft.Wayne Snider over Carroll
Ft.Wayne North over Ft.Wayne Snider
*6. at FT.WAYNE WAYNE: Homestead-$75, Huntington-25
Comments: Homestead is the clear favorite here over an otherwise average field. They will be going for their fourth straight sectional title and fifth in the last six years. Perhaps the only team that has a legitimate shot at them is Huntington. Homestead edged Huntington by four points in November. Here are the picks:
Muncie Central over Jay County; Homestead over Ft.Wayne South
Huntington over Muncie Central; Homestead over Ft.Wayne Wayne
Homestead over Huntington
*7. at LAFAYETTE: McCutcheon-$45, Logansport-40, Zionsville-15
Comments: This is a solid group of teams, with all of them having a winning record. McCutcheon and Logansport are the co-favorites here with Zionsville
a solid dark horse. In mid-January, Logan won at McCutcheon by five points. Then, the next night, McCutcheon won at Zionsville by nine. Here are the picks:
Zionsville over Harrison; Kokomo over Lafayette Jeff
Logansport over Zionsville; McCutcheon over Kokomo
McCutcheon over Logansport
*8. at CARNEL: Hamilton SE-$55, Carmel-45
Comments: Carmel or HSE? That's pretty much been the common question over the last few years for this sectional grouping. Both have had outstanding seasons. However, it's hard to ignore the 21 point drubbing Carmel suffered a few days ago against HSE. Here are the picks:
Hamilton SE over Fishers
Carmel over Westfield; Noblesville over Guerin Catholic
Hamilton SE over Anderson; Carmel over Noblesville
Hamilton SE over Carmel
