Good afternoon.
Shown below are my selections for this weekend's four class title games, along
with some comments.
Semi-State Prediction Results: Last week I picked 7 of the 8 semi-state games correctly, missing only the Griffith-Dwenger game.
Have a great day and enjoy the games.
Dan
Class A: Marquette Catholic over Barr-Reeve.................. by 5 points
MC edged BR in last year's finale in a truly great game. It wouldn't be surprising for this game to be equally as exciting. BR won a regular-season matchup by 12 points in early December. Not much to choose from between these two. For MC to win, they will likely have to get more shots for Fazekas than they did last weekend in the semi-state. Marquette averages over 70 ppg while BR gives up only 39 ppg. So, tempo will be very important here. Both teams played a tough schedule by 1A standards.
MC over BR was my pre-tourney choice for the 1A title game.
Class 2A: Park-Tudor over Frankton.............................. by 13 points
In late February Frankton lost to Muncie Central due to their inability to defend MCs 6'8 Donald Allen. Allen scored 23-24 points. Against Park-Tudor, Frankton will have to deal with two kids of similar height that are much more skilled than Allen. Sort of a scary thought isn't it? Still, I think Frankton will be able to stay with PT for 2-3 quarters. Eventually, PTs size, depth and experience should allow them to pull away. This is PTs fifth state final in the last six years. Statistically, these two teams are almost identical in every category. This is Frankton's first appearance in a state final. PT has played a much tougher schedule than Frankton.
Park-Tudor over Frankton was my pre-tourney choice for the 2A title game.
Class 3A: Guerin Catholic over Griffith........................ by 12 points
GC has made a deep run in the tourney in three of the last four years. This is Griffith's first year where they've reached a semi-state or beyond. GC has played a far more demanding schedule than Griffith. These two factors, in my opinion, will weigh heavily in GCs favor during this game. Overall, GC shoots better from both the field and the free throw line. However, Griffith has a much better percentage from the beyond the arc.
GC was my #2 pre-tourney choice to come out of the 3A south. I did not have Griffith among the top 5 choices from the 3A north.
Class 4A: Homestead over Evansville Reitz ................... by 4 points
This is a tough one. Homestead over Reitz in the 4A final was my pre-tourney prediction and I'll stick with that. The key to this game will be whether Homestead can keep Caleb Swanigan and Jordan Geist on the floor most of the game. The way Reitz attacks the basket, it's certainly very possible that one or both will end up in foul trouble and on the bench more than Homestead desires. In that circumstance, the advantage quickly switches to Reitz. The strength of schedules for these two are very similar. It is the first ever trip to the finals for Homestead. and Reitz's first appearance since 1951 ! (And it's the first final for a 4A Evansville school since North won the state in 1967.)
Shown below are my selections for this weekend's four class title games, along
with some comments.
Semi-State Prediction Results: Last week I picked 7 of the 8 semi-state games correctly, missing only the Griffith-Dwenger game.
Have a great day and enjoy the games.
Dan
Class A: Marquette Catholic over Barr-Reeve.................. by 5 points
MC edged BR in last year's finale in a truly great game. It wouldn't be surprising for this game to be equally as exciting. BR won a regular-season matchup by 12 points in early December. Not much to choose from between these two. For MC to win, they will likely have to get more shots for Fazekas than they did last weekend in the semi-state. Marquette averages over 70 ppg while BR gives up only 39 ppg. So, tempo will be very important here. Both teams played a tough schedule by 1A standards.
MC over BR was my pre-tourney choice for the 1A title game.
Class 2A: Park-Tudor over Frankton.............................. by 13 points
In late February Frankton lost to Muncie Central due to their inability to defend MCs 6'8 Donald Allen. Allen scored 23-24 points. Against Park-Tudor, Frankton will have to deal with two kids of similar height that are much more skilled than Allen. Sort of a scary thought isn't it? Still, I think Frankton will be able to stay with PT for 2-3 quarters. Eventually, PTs size, depth and experience should allow them to pull away. This is PTs fifth state final in the last six years. Statistically, these two teams are almost identical in every category. This is Frankton's first appearance in a state final. PT has played a much tougher schedule than Frankton.
Park-Tudor over Frankton was my pre-tourney choice for the 2A title game.
Class 3A: Guerin Catholic over Griffith........................ by 12 points
GC has made a deep run in the tourney in three of the last four years. This is Griffith's first year where they've reached a semi-state or beyond. GC has played a far more demanding schedule than Griffith. These two factors, in my opinion, will weigh heavily in GCs favor during this game. Overall, GC shoots better from both the field and the free throw line. However, Griffith has a much better percentage from the beyond the arc.
GC was my #2 pre-tourney choice to come out of the 3A south. I did not have Griffith among the top 5 choices from the 3A north.
Class 4A: Homestead over Evansville Reitz ................... by 4 points
This is a tough one. Homestead over Reitz in the 4A final was my pre-tourney prediction and I'll stick with that. The key to this game will be whether Homestead can keep Caleb Swanigan and Jordan Geist on the floor most of the game. The way Reitz attacks the basket, it's certainly very possible that one or both will end up in foul trouble and on the bench more than Homestead desires. In that circumstance, the advantage quickly switches to Reitz. The strength of schedules for these two are very similar. It is the first ever trip to the finals for Homestead. and Reitz's first appearance since 1951 ! (And it's the first final for a 4A Evansville school since North won the state in 1967.)
