Fans,
Shown below are my 64th annual state tournament predictions for Class 4A. For 4A, I’ve shown my state champion selection, as well as the top five contenders from each of the two semi-state areas.
Again this year, I’ve hypothetically allocated $100 to each sectional. I then asked myself if I were to bet that amount of money on each sectional, how would I distribute this amount among the teams that I feel have the best chance of winning. This provides a better measuring stick for more specifically differentiating the chances of each of the main sectional contenders.
Tournament Prediction “History”-----last year I predicted 81% of the sectional games correctly. Sectional champions: I picked only 41 of 64 correctly. For the entire tournament, 2013 was my best year with 81.5% of all games being picked correctly. My worst year was my first year, 1962, when I only got 63.5% of the games correct.
And, as always, a big Thank You to John Harrell’s great website for providing so much useful data in such an easily retrievable format !
Enjoy the games!
Dan
CLASS 4A
Class Champion: Fishers
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Fishers; 2) Crown Point; 3) Noblesville;
the North Semi-State: 4) Westfield; 5)Ft.Wayne Wayne
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Jeffersonville; 2) Lawrence North; 3) Greenfield;
the South Semi-State: 4) Mt.Vernon; 5) Ben Davis
Here are my predictions for each sectional in 4A along with a few comments.
1. at LAKE CENTRAL: Crown Point-$90; Munster-10.
2. at VALPARAISO: Portage-$50; Chesterton-45; Valparaiso-5..
Comment: The Portage Indians have not won a sectional since 2001. This will be their best shot in many years. Both Valpo and Merrillville are down this year. In three games against these two, Portage won all three by a cumulative margin of 77 points. Chesterton will be the main competition for Portage. These two have already played twice this year, with Portage winning by 11 points in early January and Chesterton winning at home by two points in mid-February. They'll meet in the first round of this year's sectional.
3. at MICHIGAN CITY: S.B.Riley-$40; Penn-35; Michigan City-15; S.B.Adams-10.
Comment: Riley has already defeated each of the other five squads at this sectional. The closest margin they've
had is a 16 point win against LaPorte in late November. This is an otherwise well balanced group with five the teams winning at least 12 games.
.
4. at ELKHART: Northridge-$60; Warsaw-40.
Comment: Northridge and Warsaw appear to be the class of this field. They will likely meet in the final game here. In early January, Warsaw won at home by a five point margin.
5. at CARROLL: F.W.Snider-$50; Carroll-25; F.W.North-15; F.W.Northrop-10.
Comment: This is a fairly weak group with Snider being the team with a winning record. However, Carroll has played the toughest schedule and has home court advantage.
6. at FT.WAYNE WAYNE: F.W.Wayne-$70; Homestead-20; F.W.South-10.
Comment: Wayne is the easy pick here. They've won two sectionals in a row, have played the toughest schedule, and will be playing on their home court.
7. at KOKOMO: Lafayette Jeff-$50; Kokomo-45;; Harrison-5
Comment: Kokomo will be going for their fourth straight sectional title and will be playing on their home floor. But Lafayette has won 18 of their last 19 games including a one point win against Kokomo in late January. And don't count out Harrison. The Raiders split two games with Lafayette and defeated Kokomo by eleven points, at Kokomo, in mid-January. They've played the toughest schedule of the four teams in this field.
8. at CARMEL: Fishers-$65; Noblesville-20; Westfield-15.
Comment: Picking Fishers to not only win this sectional but also to successfully repeat as 4A state champion is hardly a bold prediction. They've met every challenge so far this year and it's not going to be a surprise if they continue to do that throughout the upcoming tournament. However, similar to last year, their toughest challenge might come during this sectional, especially in their opener against Westfield. In their early February matchup, Westfield had a double-digit lead in the second half but couldn't hang on. At the end, the Shamrocks had a final shot with a change to win the game, but it didn't fall for them. That game was at Westfield. This upcoming match will be on a neutral floor, which should favor Fishers. Still, Westfield is certainly capable of springing the upset.
Regardless of who wins, they will likely have to get by a red hot Noblesville Miller squad in the tourney finale. s. Noblesville has won 12 of their last 13 games. All three of these teams are bonafide state title contenders.
9. at MUNCIE: Greenfield-$45; Mt.Vernon-30; Anderson-25.
Comment: This sectional continues to seemingly get stronger each year. This year there is again three real strong sectional contenders, all of whom are more than capable of making strong run for the state 4A title. Anderson, Greenfield, and Mount Vernon are all outstanding. During the year, Mount Vernon won by four points at Anderson, and Greenfield won by five points at Mount Vernon. Anderson has not won a sectional since 2009. Last year, they lost to Greenfield by six points. For the four years of 2020 through 2023, Anderson lost each year to Mount Vernon by 21, 6, 4, and 1 point respectfully. This year, Anderson and MV will likely meet in Friday's semifinal round.
Greenfield has been even more frustrated. They've not won a sectional since 1998 ! Starting with 1999, they have a cumulative sectional record of 6-26. Will this be the year
one of these two breaks through?
10. at LAWRENCE CENTRAL: Lawrence North-$45; Warren Central-35; North Central-20..
Comment: This site has lost a lot of its luster with both Cathedral and Attucks moving down to the 3A level. And most of the remaining squads are a bit weaker than they've been is some of the more recent years. Lawrence North appears to be the most likely to prevail here, but they've shown some vulnerability over the course of the season. For example, they've lost to New Palestine, split two close games with Warren Central, and lost twice to Ben Davis.
11. at AVON: Ben Davis-$35; Avon-30; Plainfield-25; Pike-10.
Comment: Avon will be going into the sectional with an outstanding record of 20-3. The last time they had as good a record was 2011 when they ended up with the same record---20-3. The Orioles will have homecourt advantage, but in order to win this sectional they will likely have to defeat Brownsburg, Plainfield, and Ben Davis. During the year, they defeated Brownsburg twice--by margins of 13 and two points. And they lost a season opener by six to Plainfield. Ben Davis could be a more difficult obstacle. In the last eight years, BD has won seven sectionals, four regional's, four semi-states, and two 4A state titles. They are experienced at winning the big games-to say the least.,
12. at DECATUR CENTRAL: Mooresville-$35; Franklin Central-30; Center Grove-25; Southport-10.
13. at BLOOMINGTON NORTH: Terre Haute North-$65; Bloomington South-35.
14. at COLUMBUS EAST : Columbus North-40; Whiteland-30; Columbus East-25; Franklin-5.
15. at SEYMOUR: Jeffersonville-$70; New Albany-20; Seymour-10.
Comment: Jeffersonville is a big favorite here to defend their sectional title. They defeated four of the other sectional entrants by a cumulative total of 86 points. (They did not play Scottsburg is new this year to 4A tourney competition.)
16. at EVANSVILLE HARRISON: Evansville Reitz-$55; Evansville Harrison-40; Castle-5.
Comment: This sectional is now just a 4-team field after both Evansville Central and Jasper were reclassified as 3A schools. The title will likely be decided with a finale of Reitz and Harrison. Reitz defeated Harrison by seven points in a mid-February game played at Harrison.
The winner of this sectional rarely makes much of an impact in post-sectional play. Only Csstle (2017) and Reitz (2015) have went on to win a regional in recent years after winning this sectional.
Shown below are my 64th annual state tournament predictions for Class 4A. For 4A, I’ve shown my state champion selection, as well as the top five contenders from each of the two semi-state areas.
Again this year, I’ve hypothetically allocated $100 to each sectional. I then asked myself if I were to bet that amount of money on each sectional, how would I distribute this amount among the teams that I feel have the best chance of winning. This provides a better measuring stick for more specifically differentiating the chances of each of the main sectional contenders.
Tournament Prediction “History”-----last year I predicted 81% of the sectional games correctly. Sectional champions: I picked only 41 of 64 correctly. For the entire tournament, 2013 was my best year with 81.5% of all games being picked correctly. My worst year was my first year, 1962, when I only got 63.5% of the games correct.
And, as always, a big Thank You to John Harrell’s great website for providing so much useful data in such an easily retrievable format !
Enjoy the games!
Dan
CLASS 4A
Class Champion: Fishers
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Fishers; 2) Crown Point; 3) Noblesville;
the North Semi-State: 4) Westfield; 5)Ft.Wayne Wayne
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Jeffersonville; 2) Lawrence North; 3) Greenfield;
the South Semi-State: 4) Mt.Vernon; 5) Ben Davis
Here are my predictions for each sectional in 4A along with a few comments.
1. at LAKE CENTRAL: Crown Point-$90; Munster-10.
2. at VALPARAISO: Portage-$50; Chesterton-45; Valparaiso-5..
Comment: The Portage Indians have not won a sectional since 2001. This will be their best shot in many years. Both Valpo and Merrillville are down this year. In three games against these two, Portage won all three by a cumulative margin of 77 points. Chesterton will be the main competition for Portage. These two have already played twice this year, with Portage winning by 11 points in early January and Chesterton winning at home by two points in mid-February. They'll meet in the first round of this year's sectional.
3. at MICHIGAN CITY: S.B.Riley-$40; Penn-35; Michigan City-15; S.B.Adams-10.
Comment: Riley has already defeated each of the other five squads at this sectional. The closest margin they've
had is a 16 point win against LaPorte in late November. This is an otherwise well balanced group with five the teams winning at least 12 games.
.
4. at ELKHART: Northridge-$60; Warsaw-40.
Comment: Northridge and Warsaw appear to be the class of this field. They will likely meet in the final game here. In early January, Warsaw won at home by a five point margin.
5. at CARROLL: F.W.Snider-$50; Carroll-25; F.W.North-15; F.W.Northrop-10.
Comment: This is a fairly weak group with Snider being the team with a winning record. However, Carroll has played the toughest schedule and has home court advantage.
6. at FT.WAYNE WAYNE: F.W.Wayne-$70; Homestead-20; F.W.South-10.
Comment: Wayne is the easy pick here. They've won two sectionals in a row, have played the toughest schedule, and will be playing on their home court.
7. at KOKOMO: Lafayette Jeff-$50; Kokomo-45;; Harrison-5
Comment: Kokomo will be going for their fourth straight sectional title and will be playing on their home floor. But Lafayette has won 18 of their last 19 games including a one point win against Kokomo in late January. And don't count out Harrison. The Raiders split two games with Lafayette and defeated Kokomo by eleven points, at Kokomo, in mid-January. They've played the toughest schedule of the four teams in this field.
8. at CARMEL: Fishers-$65; Noblesville-20; Westfield-15.
Comment: Picking Fishers to not only win this sectional but also to successfully repeat as 4A state champion is hardly a bold prediction. They've met every challenge so far this year and it's not going to be a surprise if they continue to do that throughout the upcoming tournament. However, similar to last year, their toughest challenge might come during this sectional, especially in their opener against Westfield. In their early February matchup, Westfield had a double-digit lead in the second half but couldn't hang on. At the end, the Shamrocks had a final shot with a change to win the game, but it didn't fall for them. That game was at Westfield. This upcoming match will be on a neutral floor, which should favor Fishers. Still, Westfield is certainly capable of springing the upset.
Regardless of who wins, they will likely have to get by a red hot Noblesville Miller squad in the tourney finale. s. Noblesville has won 12 of their last 13 games. All three of these teams are bonafide state title contenders.
9. at MUNCIE: Greenfield-$45; Mt.Vernon-30; Anderson-25.
Comment: This sectional continues to seemingly get stronger each year. This year there is again three real strong sectional contenders, all of whom are more than capable of making strong run for the state 4A title. Anderson, Greenfield, and Mount Vernon are all outstanding. During the year, Mount Vernon won by four points at Anderson, and Greenfield won by five points at Mount Vernon. Anderson has not won a sectional since 2009. Last year, they lost to Greenfield by six points. For the four years of 2020 through 2023, Anderson lost each year to Mount Vernon by 21, 6, 4, and 1 point respectfully. This year, Anderson and MV will likely meet in Friday's semifinal round.
Greenfield has been even more frustrated. They've not won a sectional since 1998 ! Starting with 1999, they have a cumulative sectional record of 6-26. Will this be the year
one of these two breaks through?
10. at LAWRENCE CENTRAL: Lawrence North-$45; Warren Central-35; North Central-20..
Comment: This site has lost a lot of its luster with both Cathedral and Attucks moving down to the 3A level. And most of the remaining squads are a bit weaker than they've been is some of the more recent years. Lawrence North appears to be the most likely to prevail here, but they've shown some vulnerability over the course of the season. For example, they've lost to New Palestine, split two close games with Warren Central, and lost twice to Ben Davis.
11. at AVON: Ben Davis-$35; Avon-30; Plainfield-25; Pike-10.
Comment: Avon will be going into the sectional with an outstanding record of 20-3. The last time they had as good a record was 2011 when they ended up with the same record---20-3. The Orioles will have homecourt advantage, but in order to win this sectional they will likely have to defeat Brownsburg, Plainfield, and Ben Davis. During the year, they defeated Brownsburg twice--by margins of 13 and two points. And they lost a season opener by six to Plainfield. Ben Davis could be a more difficult obstacle. In the last eight years, BD has won seven sectionals, four regional's, four semi-states, and two 4A state titles. They are experienced at winning the big games-to say the least.,
12. at DECATUR CENTRAL: Mooresville-$35; Franklin Central-30; Center Grove-25; Southport-10.
13. at BLOOMINGTON NORTH: Terre Haute North-$65; Bloomington South-35.
14. at COLUMBUS EAST : Columbus North-40; Whiteland-30; Columbus East-25; Franklin-5.
15. at SEYMOUR: Jeffersonville-$70; New Albany-20; Seymour-10.
Comment: Jeffersonville is a big favorite here to defend their sectional title. They defeated four of the other sectional entrants by a cumulative total of 86 points. (They did not play Scottsburg is new this year to 4A tourney competition.)
16. at EVANSVILLE HARRISON: Evansville Reitz-$55; Evansville Harrison-40; Castle-5.
Comment: This sectional is now just a 4-team field after both Evansville Central and Jasper were reclassified as 3A schools. The title will likely be decided with a finale of Reitz and Harrison. Reitz defeated Harrison by seven points in a mid-February game played at Harrison.
The winner of this sectional rarely makes much of an impact in post-sectional play. Only Csstle (2017) and Reitz (2015) have went on to win a regional in recent years after winning this sectional.
