Fans,
Shown below are my 61st annual state tournament predictions for Class 4A. (Classes 1A, 2A, and 3A have already been posted.) For each class, I’ve shown my state champion selection, as well as the top five contenders from each of the two semi-state areas.
Again this year, I’ve hypothetically allocated $100 to each sectional. I then asked myself if I were to bet that amount of money on each sectional, how would I distribute this amount among the teams that I feel have any chance of winning. This provides a better measuring stick for more specifically differentiating the chances of each of the sectional contenders.
Enjoy the games!
Dan
CLASS 4A
Class Champion: Carmel
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Carmel; 2) Fishers; 3)Homestead;
the North Semi-State: 4) Valparaiso; 5) Chesterton.
Top 5 Contenders From theSouth Semi-State:
1) Ben Davis; 2) Floyd Central; 3) Lawrence North; 4) Indpls.Cathedral; 5) Mount Vernon
Here are my predictions for each sectional in 4A along with a few comments.
1. at LAKE CENTRAL: Hammond Central-$50; Munster-45; Lake Central-5.
Comments: A semi-final matchup between Munster and Hammond Central should be the highlight at this site. They both need to be careful of a possible tilt with Lake Central in the title game. LC and HC have played a far tougher schedule than Munster.
2. at PORTAGE: Valpo-$40; Chesterton-35; Crown Point-15, Portage-10.
Comments: This will be one of the best sectionals in the state. Great longtime rivalries are featured here, featuring some darn good teams. Can top-ranked and undefeated Chesterton prevail here? Valpo defeated the Trojans by two points in last year's tourney and by one point in 2020s tourney. Chesterton just recently defeated Valpo by three in OT. That was at Chesterton. I like Chesterton but think Valpo, with their rich tourney history, will prevail again this year. The Vikes have won 3 of the last 4 sectionals amongst this group. But don't count out Crown Point and Portage. Both have had solid seasons. CP drew a bye and Portage has home court advantage.
3. at PLYMOUTH: Michigan City-$30; S.B.Adams-25; S.B.Riley-20; Mishawaka-15;
LaPorte-10.
Comments: Lots of old rivalries and competitive balance among this group of teams. Michigan City has been the most consistent of the group. Incredibly, MC has not won a sectional since consolidating with Rogers many years ago. Will this be the year?
4. at ELKHART: Penn-$70; Warsaw-15; Goshen-10; Northridge-5..
Comments: As usual there is lots of parity among this group of old rivals. There's a good chance the title will be decided with the opening game matchup between Penn and Warsaw. In mid-January, Penn defeated Warsaw by 12 points. Actually, Penn has defeated all of the other five
teams here by a grand total of 83 points.
5. at DEKALB: F.W.Snider-$40; F.W.North-35; F.W.Northrop.-25.
Comments: This is a very erratic group of teams. Except for Carroll, most of the other squads have had some outstanding moments this year as well as some incredibly bad outings. One doesn't know what to expect out of any of them. During the year, North swamped Snider by 21 points. And then Snider dumped Northrop by six. Then just a few days ago, the North-Northrop game
was called off do to a brawl that developed during the game. Snider has played the toughest schedule of the group and they appear to have played well with more consistency. So, I'm going with them.
6. at HUNTINGTON: Homestead-$70, Ft.Wayne South-20; Columbia City-10.
Comments: Homestead is a big favorite here to repeat as Sectional champs. The Spartans have won seven titles in the last ten years. They are certainly not a lock. They've shown some vulnerabilities at times this year. They depend so much on Fletcher Loyer. On the rare occasions that he's a bit off, Homestead struggles. The team most likely to challenge them would be Ft.Wayne South. Homestead won at South by only six points in early January.
7. at LOGANSPORT: Lafayette Jeff-$40; Kokomo-35; Harrison-25.
Comments: Lafayette Jeff has the best overall record of this sectional group. But, two of their losses were to potential sectional opponents. In early December, they lost by five points at Harrison. And in late January, they were surprised at Marion--losing by a point. I look for the Bronchos to not lose in this wide open sectional. The other strong challenger should be Kokomo. The Wildkats have played a much tougher schedule than Lafayette and Harrison. They lost to those two teams by eight and five points respectively.
8. at NOBLESVILLE: Carmel-$35, Fishers-30; Westfield-20; Zionsville-15.
Comments This is the best group of teams in any sectional in the state. Picking a winner is a real challenge. Regular season scores aren't that meaningful because of all the games missed by key members of several teams: Williams and Whack of Carmel; Smith of Fishers; Smith of Westfield; Imes of Zionsville, etc. I'm probably missing some others. Will all teams be at full strength in the tournament? That's the big question. Carmel is very vulnerable. They've had so many shaky performances this year--by their standards at least. Still, it's hard for me to pick against them when they are at full strength. Plus they drew a bye.
9. at GREENFIELD: Mt.Vernon-$45; Anderson-40; New Palestine-10; Richmond-5.
Comments: Lots of parity here with this group. And lots of great rivalries. Mount Vernon is the defending champion here and rate as the favorite again. But the Anderson Indians seem to be getting better with each passing week. These two would meet in a semi-final matchup. MV edged the Indians by four points in the final of last year's sectional. New Pal, Richmond, and host Greenfield all rate as capable dark horses.
10. at NORTH CENTRAL Lawrence North-$30; Indpls.Cathedral-25; Indpls.Tech-20; North
Central-15; Warren Central-10.
Comments: This sectional could be classified as the home of Jekyll and Hyde teams. Most all of these squads, at times this year, have performed like world beaters. On the other hand they've played like they've never been in a game before. So, picking a winner here is quite a chore. Don't get me wrong, this is still a strong group. But not as strong as in some past years. Tech plays like an out-of-whack AAU team. LN has been up and down. North Central somehow won the county tourney. Then there's Cathedral. Perhaps the most talented roster in the state. But they just don't come to play every night..
Speaking of Cathedral. The biggest "knock" against them is their history. They have not won a sectional since 2013. Even more incredible is they have lost seven sectional games in a row and nine of their last ten. And talk about tough luck--seven of these losses were by a combined total of 27 points. That's got to be weighing on them mentally. Can they overcome it? We'll see!
11. at BEN DAVIS: Ben Davis-$60; Pike-35; Decatur Central-5.
Comments . Old foes BD and Pike appear headed for a championship game match. BD has already defeated Pike twice this year. And with the games being played at BD, they should be able to get it done again.
12. at TERRE HAUTE: Brownsburg-$50; Terre Haute North-45; Mooresville-5.
Comments: Terre Haute North has an excellent record and will be playing on their home floor. Brownsburg has a decent, but not great, record. And they drew a bye. They have played a much tougher schedule than North. Will that give them the edge in their likely semi-final matchup? I'm guessing it will. But I'm not very sure about it at all. Brownsburg has been very inconsistent this year. Which team will show up?
13. at GREENWOOD: Center Grove -$40; Whiteland-35; Franklin Central -25..
Comments: This is a three-team race in this subpar sectional by 4A standards. Center Grove and Franklin Central have played outstanding schedules. So their modest records are somewhat misleading. FC beat both Whiteland and CG. Both games went into OT. Whiteland and CG have split a couple of games.
14. at MARTINSVILLE : Bloomingon South-$40; Bloom.North-35; Columbus North-25.
Comments: Bloomington South has won this sectional seven straight years. They are weaker than they've been in some time. This is a big chance for either city rival North or Columbus North to take the crown. They both defeated South during the year. Still, I believe South and J.R. Holmes will find a way to get it done. South had a better draw. They will only have to play one of the other strong contenders.
15. at SEYMOUR: Floyd Central-45; Seymour-30; Jennings Co.-25.
Comments: The main story at this site is the home team--the Seymour Owls. This year, Seymour had their first winning record since 2007 ! During this drought, they've won only two sectional GAMES. They have not won a sectional since 1992 ! Will this be the year they break through at the sectional level? They certainly have a good shot. They are playing on their home floor and drew a bye. This field is very well-balanced but not as strong as in many years. Personally, I'll be rooting for the Owls. They've been pummeled for years. I'd like to see them be successful.
16. at EVANSVILLE NORTH: E.Reitz-$35;Castle-30; E.North-20; Jasper-10; E.Harrison-5.
Comments: Realistically, the winner of this sectional isn't likely to accomplish much at the regional level. Bu amongst themselves, this group is very evenly matched and could well produce some great games. Reitz has probably been the most consistent team here. They defeated North by 31 points, Castle by 13, and Harrison by 12. However, they lost to Jasper by 11..
Shown below are my 61st annual state tournament predictions for Class 4A. (Classes 1A, 2A, and 3A have already been posted.) For each class, I’ve shown my state champion selection, as well as the top five contenders from each of the two semi-state areas.
Again this year, I’ve hypothetically allocated $100 to each sectional. I then asked myself if I were to bet that amount of money on each sectional, how would I distribute this amount among the teams that I feel have any chance of winning. This provides a better measuring stick for more specifically differentiating the chances of each of the sectional contenders.
Enjoy the games!
Dan
CLASS 4A
Class Champion: Carmel
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Carmel; 2) Fishers; 3)Homestead;
the North Semi-State: 4) Valparaiso; 5) Chesterton.
Top 5 Contenders From theSouth Semi-State:
1) Ben Davis; 2) Floyd Central; 3) Lawrence North; 4) Indpls.Cathedral; 5) Mount Vernon
Here are my predictions for each sectional in 4A along with a few comments.
1. at LAKE CENTRAL: Hammond Central-$50; Munster-45; Lake Central-5.
Comments: A semi-final matchup between Munster and Hammond Central should be the highlight at this site. They both need to be careful of a possible tilt with Lake Central in the title game. LC and HC have played a far tougher schedule than Munster.
2. at PORTAGE: Valpo-$40; Chesterton-35; Crown Point-15, Portage-10.
Comments: This will be one of the best sectionals in the state. Great longtime rivalries are featured here, featuring some darn good teams. Can top-ranked and undefeated Chesterton prevail here? Valpo defeated the Trojans by two points in last year's tourney and by one point in 2020s tourney. Chesterton just recently defeated Valpo by three in OT. That was at Chesterton. I like Chesterton but think Valpo, with their rich tourney history, will prevail again this year. The Vikes have won 3 of the last 4 sectionals amongst this group. But don't count out Crown Point and Portage. Both have had solid seasons. CP drew a bye and Portage has home court advantage.
3. at PLYMOUTH: Michigan City-$30; S.B.Adams-25; S.B.Riley-20; Mishawaka-15;
LaPorte-10.
Comments: Lots of old rivalries and competitive balance among this group of teams. Michigan City has been the most consistent of the group. Incredibly, MC has not won a sectional since consolidating with Rogers many years ago. Will this be the year?
4. at ELKHART: Penn-$70; Warsaw-15; Goshen-10; Northridge-5..
Comments: As usual there is lots of parity among this group of old rivals. There's a good chance the title will be decided with the opening game matchup between Penn and Warsaw. In mid-January, Penn defeated Warsaw by 12 points. Actually, Penn has defeated all of the other five
teams here by a grand total of 83 points.
5. at DEKALB: F.W.Snider-$40; F.W.North-35; F.W.Northrop.-25.
Comments: This is a very erratic group of teams. Except for Carroll, most of the other squads have had some outstanding moments this year as well as some incredibly bad outings. One doesn't know what to expect out of any of them. During the year, North swamped Snider by 21 points. And then Snider dumped Northrop by six. Then just a few days ago, the North-Northrop game
was called off do to a brawl that developed during the game. Snider has played the toughest schedule of the group and they appear to have played well with more consistency. So, I'm going with them.
6. at HUNTINGTON: Homestead-$70, Ft.Wayne South-20; Columbia City-10.
Comments: Homestead is a big favorite here to repeat as Sectional champs. The Spartans have won seven titles in the last ten years. They are certainly not a lock. They've shown some vulnerabilities at times this year. They depend so much on Fletcher Loyer. On the rare occasions that he's a bit off, Homestead struggles. The team most likely to challenge them would be Ft.Wayne South. Homestead won at South by only six points in early January.
7. at LOGANSPORT: Lafayette Jeff-$40; Kokomo-35; Harrison-25.
Comments: Lafayette Jeff has the best overall record of this sectional group. But, two of their losses were to potential sectional opponents. In early December, they lost by five points at Harrison. And in late January, they were surprised at Marion--losing by a point. I look for the Bronchos to not lose in this wide open sectional. The other strong challenger should be Kokomo. The Wildkats have played a much tougher schedule than Lafayette and Harrison. They lost to those two teams by eight and five points respectively.
8. at NOBLESVILLE: Carmel-$35, Fishers-30; Westfield-20; Zionsville-15.
Comments This is the best group of teams in any sectional in the state. Picking a winner is a real challenge. Regular season scores aren't that meaningful because of all the games missed by key members of several teams: Williams and Whack of Carmel; Smith of Fishers; Smith of Westfield; Imes of Zionsville, etc. I'm probably missing some others. Will all teams be at full strength in the tournament? That's the big question. Carmel is very vulnerable. They've had so many shaky performances this year--by their standards at least. Still, it's hard for me to pick against them when they are at full strength. Plus they drew a bye.
9. at GREENFIELD: Mt.Vernon-$45; Anderson-40; New Palestine-10; Richmond-5.
Comments: Lots of parity here with this group. And lots of great rivalries. Mount Vernon is the defending champion here and rate as the favorite again. But the Anderson Indians seem to be getting better with each passing week. These two would meet in a semi-final matchup. MV edged the Indians by four points in the final of last year's sectional. New Pal, Richmond, and host Greenfield all rate as capable dark horses.
10. at NORTH CENTRAL Lawrence North-$30; Indpls.Cathedral-25; Indpls.Tech-20; North
Central-15; Warren Central-10.
Comments: This sectional could be classified as the home of Jekyll and Hyde teams. Most all of these squads, at times this year, have performed like world beaters. On the other hand they've played like they've never been in a game before. So, picking a winner here is quite a chore. Don't get me wrong, this is still a strong group. But not as strong as in some past years. Tech plays like an out-of-whack AAU team. LN has been up and down. North Central somehow won the county tourney. Then there's Cathedral. Perhaps the most talented roster in the state. But they just don't come to play every night..
Speaking of Cathedral. The biggest "knock" against them is their history. They have not won a sectional since 2013. Even more incredible is they have lost seven sectional games in a row and nine of their last ten. And talk about tough luck--seven of these losses were by a combined total of 27 points. That's got to be weighing on them mentally. Can they overcome it? We'll see!
11. at BEN DAVIS: Ben Davis-$60; Pike-35; Decatur Central-5.
Comments . Old foes BD and Pike appear headed for a championship game match. BD has already defeated Pike twice this year. And with the games being played at BD, they should be able to get it done again.
12. at TERRE HAUTE: Brownsburg-$50; Terre Haute North-45; Mooresville-5.
Comments: Terre Haute North has an excellent record and will be playing on their home floor. Brownsburg has a decent, but not great, record. And they drew a bye. They have played a much tougher schedule than North. Will that give them the edge in their likely semi-final matchup? I'm guessing it will. But I'm not very sure about it at all. Brownsburg has been very inconsistent this year. Which team will show up?
13. at GREENWOOD: Center Grove -$40; Whiteland-35; Franklin Central -25..
Comments: This is a three-team race in this subpar sectional by 4A standards. Center Grove and Franklin Central have played outstanding schedules. So their modest records are somewhat misleading. FC beat both Whiteland and CG. Both games went into OT. Whiteland and CG have split a couple of games.
14. at MARTINSVILLE : Bloomingon South-$40; Bloom.North-35; Columbus North-25.
Comments: Bloomington South has won this sectional seven straight years. They are weaker than they've been in some time. This is a big chance for either city rival North or Columbus North to take the crown. They both defeated South during the year. Still, I believe South and J.R. Holmes will find a way to get it done. South had a better draw. They will only have to play one of the other strong contenders.
15. at SEYMOUR: Floyd Central-45; Seymour-30; Jennings Co.-25.
Comments: The main story at this site is the home team--the Seymour Owls. This year, Seymour had their first winning record since 2007 ! During this drought, they've won only two sectional GAMES. They have not won a sectional since 1992 ! Will this be the year they break through at the sectional level? They certainly have a good shot. They are playing on their home floor and drew a bye. This field is very well-balanced but not as strong as in many years. Personally, I'll be rooting for the Owls. They've been pummeled for years. I'd like to see them be successful.
16. at EVANSVILLE NORTH: E.Reitz-$35;Castle-30; E.North-20; Jasper-10; E.Harrison-5.
Comments: Realistically, the winner of this sectional isn't likely to accomplish much at the regional level. Bu amongst themselves, this group is very evenly matched and could well produce some great games. Reitz has probably been the most consistent team here. They defeated North by 31 points, Castle by 13, and Harrison by 12. However, they lost to Jasper by 11..
