Good evening,
Shown below are my selections for this weekend’s 3A and 4A regional games, along with some comments. (I posted 1A and 2A earlier this week.) Most of the historical info referenced was derived from John Harrell’s great web site.
The numbers in parentheses by each team’s name is how I rank the teams in
each regional, with #1 indicating the team most likely to win, #4 the least likely, etc.
Sectional Prediction Results: Last week I picked only 32 out of 64 sectional winners correctly for 50%. This was my worst year since 2003! For all games played, I selected 263 out of 336 games correctly for 78%.
Have a great day and enjoy the games!
Dan
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CLASS 4A
at MICHIGAN CITY
(1)Penn [22-3] over (3)Chesterton [19-6]
(2)Munster [22-4] over (4)Northridge [18-8]
Penn the winner
*All of these teams are fairly new to regional play. Chesterton hasn't played in one since
1987; Penn since 2014; Northridge and Munster 2015. Penn has been more consistently
good throughout the year, so I'll go with them.
*Chesterton has played a slightly better schedule than the other teams here; and Munster
slightly worse.
*Prior scores: Penn-95, Northridge-67 (Jan.15th) and Chesterton-54, Munster-49 (Feb.9th).
*Penn has won 16 of their last 17 games; Chesterton 9 of their last 11; Northridge 12 wins in
a row; and Munster 17 of their last 20 games.
at LOGANSPORT
(1)Carmel [22-1] over (4)Fort Wayne Northrop [16-8]
(2)Zionsville [20-5] over (3)Huntington North [22-4]
Carmel the winner
*A Carmel-Zionsville championship game, if it occurs, will probably decide the north semi-
states participant in the 4A title game. These two have had several close, low-scoring games
in recent years and both are masters of that type of game. And speaking of masters of slow
tempo games--Huntington takes a backseat to no one. They are playing great right now and
their opponents average only 42 ppg. The only "free-lance" squad here will be Northrop. I
don't think they will be disciplined enough to compete very well with any of the other three
teams at this site.
*Huntington has played a far weaker schedule than the other three teams here.
*Prior score: Carmel-66, Zionsville-61 (Nov.20th).
*Huntington has won 12 of their last 14 games; Zionsville 11 of their last 13.
*Carmel won this regional last year. It is their 5 straight regional appearance. Zionsville was
also here last year and lost a first-round game to Ft.Wayne North. Northrop is making a
regional appearance for the first time 2013. Huntington's last regional was 2001.
at SOUTHPORT
(3)Avon [15-9] over (4)New Palestine [17-8]
(1)Lawrence Central [22-3] vs.(2) Ben Davis [17-7]
Lawrence Central the winner
*Lawrence Central is a heavy favorite at this site, though 2017 champ Ben Davis is a very
dangerous first-round opponent. Avon and New Pal are in a perfect position to attempt an
upset in the night cap. They can hope that LC or BD will be tired and uninspired for their
second game of the day.
*LC, BD, and Avon all have played outstanding schedules. Not the case with New Pal.
*Prior scores: LC-72, BD-57 (Dec.21st); BD-69, Avon-53 (Feb.2nd).
*Avon has won 9 of their last 11 games; New Pal-7 out of their last 9; LC -19 out of 20; and
BD-7 out of 8 games.
*BD is playing in their third straight regional. They were the state's 4A champion in 2017.
Avon is in their first regional since 2002. Both LC and New Pal are in a regional for the
first time since 2012.
at SEYMOUR
(1)Center Grove [19-8] over (4)Jasper [16-9]
(2)Bloomington South [23-3] over (3)Jeffersonville [19-5]
Center Grove the winner
*I'm picking CG here almost entirely due to the beneficial draw they've received. They play
the first game against presumably the weakest team at this site. That plus their experience
might be enough to get them through the regional final at night. On the other hand, while
they've played a great schedule, they own only two victories over the elite teams on their
schedule. Specifically, Indy Cathedral and Ben Davis.
*CG has by far played the toughest schedule; Jasper the weakest.
*Jasper and CG have both won 6 of their last 8 games. Bloomington and Jeff have won 14
and 10 games in a row respectively.
*This is Jeff's first regional since 2013; Jasper's first since 2014. CG is in their third straight
regional. They've lost to New Albany each of the two previous years. Bloomington is
appearing in their fifth straight regional. But, they've lost in the first round in each of the
four previous years!
CLASS 3A
at SOUTH BEND WASHINGTON
(1)Culver Academy [21-3] over (4)Hanover Central [17-8]
(2)Hammond [17-7] over (3)West Lafayette [16-9]
Culver Academy the winner
*Culver Academy, the state's defending 3A champion, is a huge favorite at this site. They'll
be joined by two other returnees to this regional: West Lafayette and Hammond. CA
defeated WL 50-43 in last year's tourney and also defeated Hammond 72-48.
*CA has by far played the toughest schedule; HC by far the weakest.
*Prior score: CA-60, WL-23 (Jan.25th)
*Hanover Central has won 8 of their last 9 games; Culver 18 of their last 19 games;
Hammond 5 of 7; and West Lafayette 7 of their last 8.
*HC is appearing in their first regional since 1986 ! WL is here for the third straight year.
at MARION
(1) Marion [17-7] over (3)Angola [20-5]
(2)Delta [26-0] over (4)Tippecanoe Valley [15-9]
Marion the winner
*This is a tough one: a likely title game between unbeaten Delta and the host Marion Giants.
Marion's homefloor and quickness will likely cause Delta a bunch of problems. On the
other hand, Delta's deliberate and precise floor game should be able to find plenty of holes
in Marion's porous defense.
*Marion has played a much tougher schedule than the rest of the group--which is another
major reason I am favoring them. Tippy Valley has played the weakest schedule.
*Angola has won 8 of their last 9 games; Marion 10 of their last 12; and TV 8 of their last 9.
*This will be Angola's 3rd regional in the last 4 years. They lost to New Castle in the first
round last year. Marion is also here for the 3rd time in 4 years. And they also lost to New
Castle last year at this location. Delta has not been in a regional since 2011; and TV since
2013.
at GREENCASTLE
(2)Beech Grove [17-7] over (3) Greencastle [21-4]
(1)Indianapolis Attucks [18-8] over (4)Owen Valley [14-12]
Crispus Attucks the winner
*This should come down to a likely classic matchup between Beech Grove and Attucks. I
give the nod to the latter due to their tough schedule and prior tourney experience at this
level.
*Attucks has played a much tougher schedule than the other teams here; GC and OV have
played the weakest.
*Prior score: Greencastle-58, Owen Valley-35 (Feb.16th).
*Beech Grove and Greencastle have both won 9 of their last 10 games and OV 5 of 7.
*This is Beech Grove's first regional since 2008; Greencastle's first since 2004; and Owen
Valley's first since 2006. Attucks is in their third straight regional and fifth in six years.
They lost to Danville in the first round last year. In '09, Princeton then went on to win the
state's 3A title.
at SOUTHRIDGE
(2)Princeton [20-5] over (4)Batesville [15-10]
(1)Silver Creek [21-3] over (3)Evansville Memorial [16-9]
Silver Creek the winner
*Another nice group of teams at this site. Congrats to Batesville and Memorial for getting by
their old nemesis--Greensburg and Evansville Bosse respectively. All four of this teams are
legitimate contenders. But I'll go with Silver Creek. They've consistently been outstanding
all year long.
*Memorial has played a slightly better schedule than the rest of this group.
*Prior score: Princeton-59, Evansville Memorial-45 (Jan. 25th)
*Princeton has won 8 of their last 10 games; Memorial 8 of their last 9; and SC 10 or 11.
*Princeton last played in a regional in 2009. They went ahead that year and won the state's
3A title that year. Batesville is playing at this level for the first time since 2011. Memorial
last appeared in 2015. SC is in their second straight regional and fifth in the last six years.
They were ousted by Bosse last year.
Shown below are my selections for this weekend’s 3A and 4A regional games, along with some comments. (I posted 1A and 2A earlier this week.) Most of the historical info referenced was derived from John Harrell’s great web site.
The numbers in parentheses by each team’s name is how I rank the teams in
each regional, with #1 indicating the team most likely to win, #4 the least likely, etc.
Sectional Prediction Results: Last week I picked only 32 out of 64 sectional winners correctly for 50%. This was my worst year since 2003! For all games played, I selected 263 out of 336 games correctly for 78%.
Have a great day and enjoy the games!
Dan
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CLASS 4A
at MICHIGAN CITY
(1)Penn [22-3] over (3)Chesterton [19-6]
(2)Munster [22-4] over (4)Northridge [18-8]
Penn the winner
*All of these teams are fairly new to regional play. Chesterton hasn't played in one since
1987; Penn since 2014; Northridge and Munster 2015. Penn has been more consistently
good throughout the year, so I'll go with them.
*Chesterton has played a slightly better schedule than the other teams here; and Munster
slightly worse.
*Prior scores: Penn-95, Northridge-67 (Jan.15th) and Chesterton-54, Munster-49 (Feb.9th).
*Penn has won 16 of their last 17 games; Chesterton 9 of their last 11; Northridge 12 wins in
a row; and Munster 17 of their last 20 games.
at LOGANSPORT
(1)Carmel [22-1] over (4)Fort Wayne Northrop [16-8]
(2)Zionsville [20-5] over (3)Huntington North [22-4]
Carmel the winner
*A Carmel-Zionsville championship game, if it occurs, will probably decide the north semi-
states participant in the 4A title game. These two have had several close, low-scoring games
in recent years and both are masters of that type of game. And speaking of masters of slow
tempo games--Huntington takes a backseat to no one. They are playing great right now and
their opponents average only 42 ppg. The only "free-lance" squad here will be Northrop. I
don't think they will be disciplined enough to compete very well with any of the other three
teams at this site.
*Huntington has played a far weaker schedule than the other three teams here.
*Prior score: Carmel-66, Zionsville-61 (Nov.20th).
*Huntington has won 12 of their last 14 games; Zionsville 11 of their last 13.
*Carmel won this regional last year. It is their 5 straight regional appearance. Zionsville was
also here last year and lost a first-round game to Ft.Wayne North. Northrop is making a
regional appearance for the first time 2013. Huntington's last regional was 2001.
at SOUTHPORT
(3)Avon [15-9] over (4)New Palestine [17-8]
(1)Lawrence Central [22-3] vs.(2) Ben Davis [17-7]
Lawrence Central the winner
*Lawrence Central is a heavy favorite at this site, though 2017 champ Ben Davis is a very
dangerous first-round opponent. Avon and New Pal are in a perfect position to attempt an
upset in the night cap. They can hope that LC or BD will be tired and uninspired for their
second game of the day.
*LC, BD, and Avon all have played outstanding schedules. Not the case with New Pal.
*Prior scores: LC-72, BD-57 (Dec.21st); BD-69, Avon-53 (Feb.2nd).
*Avon has won 9 of their last 11 games; New Pal-7 out of their last 9; LC -19 out of 20; and
BD-7 out of 8 games.
*BD is playing in their third straight regional. They were the state's 4A champion in 2017.
Avon is in their first regional since 2002. Both LC and New Pal are in a regional for the
first time since 2012.
at SEYMOUR
(1)Center Grove [19-8] over (4)Jasper [16-9]
(2)Bloomington South [23-3] over (3)Jeffersonville [19-5]
Center Grove the winner
*I'm picking CG here almost entirely due to the beneficial draw they've received. They play
the first game against presumably the weakest team at this site. That plus their experience
might be enough to get them through the regional final at night. On the other hand, while
they've played a great schedule, they own only two victories over the elite teams on their
schedule. Specifically, Indy Cathedral and Ben Davis.
*CG has by far played the toughest schedule; Jasper the weakest.
*Jasper and CG have both won 6 of their last 8 games. Bloomington and Jeff have won 14
and 10 games in a row respectively.
*This is Jeff's first regional since 2013; Jasper's first since 2014. CG is in their third straight
regional. They've lost to New Albany each of the two previous years. Bloomington is
appearing in their fifth straight regional. But, they've lost in the first round in each of the
four previous years!
CLASS 3A
at SOUTH BEND WASHINGTON
(1)Culver Academy [21-3] over (4)Hanover Central [17-8]
(2)Hammond [17-7] over (3)West Lafayette [16-9]
Culver Academy the winner
*Culver Academy, the state's defending 3A champion, is a huge favorite at this site. They'll
be joined by two other returnees to this regional: West Lafayette and Hammond. CA
defeated WL 50-43 in last year's tourney and also defeated Hammond 72-48.
*CA has by far played the toughest schedule; HC by far the weakest.
*Prior score: CA-60, WL-23 (Jan.25th)
*Hanover Central has won 8 of their last 9 games; Culver 18 of their last 19 games;
Hammond 5 of 7; and West Lafayette 7 of their last 8.
*HC is appearing in their first regional since 1986 ! WL is here for the third straight year.
at MARION
(1) Marion [17-7] over (3)Angola [20-5]
(2)Delta [26-0] over (4)Tippecanoe Valley [15-9]
Marion the winner
*This is a tough one: a likely title game between unbeaten Delta and the host Marion Giants.
Marion's homefloor and quickness will likely cause Delta a bunch of problems. On the
other hand, Delta's deliberate and precise floor game should be able to find plenty of holes
in Marion's porous defense.
*Marion has played a much tougher schedule than the rest of the group--which is another
major reason I am favoring them. Tippy Valley has played the weakest schedule.
*Angola has won 8 of their last 9 games; Marion 10 of their last 12; and TV 8 of their last 9.
*This will be Angola's 3rd regional in the last 4 years. They lost to New Castle in the first
round last year. Marion is also here for the 3rd time in 4 years. And they also lost to New
Castle last year at this location. Delta has not been in a regional since 2011; and TV since
2013.
at GREENCASTLE
(2)Beech Grove [17-7] over (3) Greencastle [21-4]
(1)Indianapolis Attucks [18-8] over (4)Owen Valley [14-12]
Crispus Attucks the winner
*This should come down to a likely classic matchup between Beech Grove and Attucks. I
give the nod to the latter due to their tough schedule and prior tourney experience at this
level.
*Attucks has played a much tougher schedule than the other teams here; GC and OV have
played the weakest.
*Prior score: Greencastle-58, Owen Valley-35 (Feb.16th).
*Beech Grove and Greencastle have both won 9 of their last 10 games and OV 5 of 7.
*This is Beech Grove's first regional since 2008; Greencastle's first since 2004; and Owen
Valley's first since 2006. Attucks is in their third straight regional and fifth in six years.
They lost to Danville in the first round last year. In '09, Princeton then went on to win the
state's 3A title.
at SOUTHRIDGE
(2)Princeton [20-5] over (4)Batesville [15-10]
(1)Silver Creek [21-3] over (3)Evansville Memorial [16-9]
Silver Creek the winner
*Another nice group of teams at this site. Congrats to Batesville and Memorial for getting by
their old nemesis--Greensburg and Evansville Bosse respectively. All four of this teams are
legitimate contenders. But I'll go with Silver Creek. They've consistently been outstanding
all year long.
*Memorial has played a slightly better schedule than the rest of this group.
*Prior score: Princeton-59, Evansville Memorial-45 (Jan. 25th)
*Princeton has won 8 of their last 10 games; Memorial 8 of their last 9; and SC 10 or 11.
*Princeton last played in a regional in 2009. They went ahead that year and won the state's
3A title that year. Batesville is playing at this level for the first time since 2011. Memorial
last appeared in 2015. SC is in their second straight regional and fifth in the last six years.
They were ousted by Bosse last year.
