Fans,
Shown below are my 61st annual state tournament predictions for Class 3A. (Class 4A will be posted soon.. For each class, I’ve shown my state champion selection, as well as the top five contenders from each of the two semi-state areas.
Again this year, I’ve hypothetically allocated $100 to each sectional. I then asked myself if I were to bet that amount of money on each sectional, how would I distribute this amount among the teams that I feel have any chance of winning. This provides a better measuring stick for more specifically differentiating the chances of each of the sectional contenders.
Tournament Prediction “History”-----last year I predicted 79% of the sectional games correctly. Sectional champions: I picked only 31 of 64 correctly. For the entire tournament, 2013 was my best year with 81.5% of all games being picked correctly. My worst year was my first year, 1962, when I only got 63.5% of the games correct.
And, as always, a big Thank You to John Harrell’s great website for providing so much useful data in such an easily retrievable format !
(Note: References to records, winning streaks, etc. are usually based on data as of
February 19th.)
Enjoy the games!
Dan
CLASS 3A
Class Champion: Mishawaka Marian
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Mishawaka Marian; 2) Northwood; 3) Leo;
the North Semi-State: 4) New Castle; 5) Norwell
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Brownstown; 2) Sullivan; 3) Brebeuf;
the South Semi-State: 4) Connersville; 5) Beech Grove
Here are my predictions for each sectional in 3A.
17. at HANOVER CENTRAL: Calumet-$40; Hanover Central-35; Lighthouse CPA-25.
Comments: Perhaps the weakest sectional in 3A. Lighthouse and Calumet have played tougher schedules than the rest of the group. Lighthouse defeated Calumet by four points during the year. Calumet, in turn, won at HC by six points in late January . Any of the three could win here.
18. at KANKAKEE VALLEY: Culver Academy-$60; Kankakee Valley-40.
Comments: This is a very weak 5-team group. KV has the home floor but Culver has played a much tougher schedule. I believe the latter will prevail.
19. at MISHAWAKA MARIAN: Mishawaka Marian-$45; Glenn-40; S.B.St.Joseph-15.
Comments: A great draw for Marian. They drew a bye and will play a team with a losing record in the semi-final. Glenn on the other hand will have to get by two solid South Bend teams in order to meet Marian in the final. In late January Glenn, playing at home, edged Marian by four points. But, I think Marian will get the job done this time.
20. at MACONAQUAH: Peru-$40; Maconaquah-35; Twin Lakes-15; Western-10.
Comments: This group of teams almost always is a toss-up with lots of long-time rivalries and lots of parity. That certainly is the case again this year. Five teams are well above .500. The four strongest teams, in my opinion are all in the same bracket. I'm going to stick with the Peru Tigers to win their first sectional since 2009.
21. at WAWASEE: Northwood-$90; West Noble-10.
Comments: Defending champ Northwood will be going for their third title in a row and should get it. West Noble is their strongest challenger. NW defeated WN by eight points in early February. NW has won a sectional in 7 of the last 10 years.
22. at GARRETT: Leo-$65; F.W.Concordia-20; F.W.Dwenger-15..
Comments: Leo again has a sparkling record and is the defending champs from the prior two years. They are the definite favorites here, but might face a stiff test in the final from either Concordia or Dwenger. They defeated Concordia by four points in late November. And they scored another four point win over Dwenger just a few days ago. Leo is fortunate that they don't have to play both of those teams.
23. at NORWELL: Norwell-$75; Oak Hill-25.
Comments: The Norwell Knights have had an outstanding season and will be playing on their home floor. They rate as a solid favorite here. They stumbled early in the season at Mississinewa, but I don't see that happening again. The other top contender here is Oak Hill. But Norwell won at the Hill by 12 points in early December.
24. at NEW CASTLE: New Castle-70; Jay County-20; Hamilton Heights-10.
Comments: New Castle rates as a big favorite here. Jay County and Hamilton Heights appear to be their toughest competition. NC won at HH by three points in early December. And then they defeated Jay by 12 points a few days later.
25. at FRANKFORT: Crawfordsville-$50; Danville-$40; Tri-West-10.
Comments: Danville, and Crawfordsville are the elite teams here and they are in opposite brackets. Danvile has played a much tougher schedule. But just a few days ago Crawfordsville, playing at home, dumped Danville by 12 points. And don't overlook Tri-West. They have also dealt with a difficult schedule. They have split two games with Danville and came within five points of Crawfordsville in early February.
26. at EDGEWOOD: Brownstown-$45; Northview-40; West Vigo-10; Edgewood-5.
Comments: A likely championship game between Brownstown and Northview should be a treat for all the fans who are able to see it. Brownstown has played a stronger schedule and rates as the favorite. And they drew a bye. Northview won this sectional last year and, in the process, edged Brownstown by two points.
27. at LEBANON:: Brebeuf-$40;; Guerin 30; Lebanon-20; Idols Chatard-10.
Comments: This is a solid 3A group. Guerin and Brebeuf have player much tougher schedules than the rest of the group. Lebanon is on their home floor. During the year, Guerin defeated Lebanon. But then Chatard beat Guerin. But Guerin defeated Brebeuf who, subsequently defeated Chatard. So, this site is basically a toss-up among those four squads.
28. at SPEEDWAY : Beech Grove-$80; Indpls.Washington-15; Indpls.Ritter-5.
Comments: Beech Grove is a solid favorite here. They have defeated Washington, Speedway, and Ritter by a combined total of 67 points ! It's good to see Washington relevant again. Their 16 victories is the most they've had since 1995.
29. at CONNERSVILLE: Connersville-$40; Greensburg-35;.Franklin County-15; Lawrenceburg-10.
Comments: This is a darn good group of teams. Five are well above .500. and are all more than capable of winning here. Connersville gets the nod with their home floor advantage. The title may be determined with the first-round matchup between the Spartans and old rival Greensburg. They met in early January at Connersivlle with the Spartans winning by two points. Connersville won this sectional last year by defeating GB in the title game. Two years ago, the outcome was just the opposite.
30. at SALEM: North Harrison-$45; Silver Creek-25; Scottsburg-20; Corydon-10.
Comments: North Harrison appears to be a solid favorite to finally unseat Silver Creek as the kingpin of this sectional. NH was undefeated against this field, including a 19 point win at SC back in December. But SC has had their moments this year, as has Scottsburg and Corydon. SC snd Scottsburg have played a much tougher schedule than North Harrison.
31. at PRINCETON: Sullivan-$80; Washington-20.
Comments: This is really a weak group. Sullivan has an excellent chance to win their second straight sectional after what was a ten year drought. Washington, who has played a much tougher schedule, appears to be the only potential roadblock.
32. at BOONVILLE: Heritage Hills-$40; Evans.Bosse-35; Evansville Memorial--25..
Comments: Bosse and Heritage Hills once again are the class of this field. Even though neither is as strong as they have been recently. HH has won the last two sectionals, defeating Bosse both times in the process. Memorial cannot be ignored here. They played HH and Bosse tough during the regular season.
Shown below are my 61st annual state tournament predictions for Class 3A. (Class 4A will be posted soon.. For each class, I’ve shown my state champion selection, as well as the top five contenders from each of the two semi-state areas.
Again this year, I’ve hypothetically allocated $100 to each sectional. I then asked myself if I were to bet that amount of money on each sectional, how would I distribute this amount among the teams that I feel have any chance of winning. This provides a better measuring stick for more specifically differentiating the chances of each of the sectional contenders.
Tournament Prediction “History”-----last year I predicted 79% of the sectional games correctly. Sectional champions: I picked only 31 of 64 correctly. For the entire tournament, 2013 was my best year with 81.5% of all games being picked correctly. My worst year was my first year, 1962, when I only got 63.5% of the games correct.
And, as always, a big Thank You to John Harrell’s great website for providing so much useful data in such an easily retrievable format !
(Note: References to records, winning streaks, etc. are usually based on data as of
February 19th.)
Enjoy the games!
Dan
CLASS 3A
Class Champion: Mishawaka Marian
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Mishawaka Marian; 2) Northwood; 3) Leo;
the North Semi-State: 4) New Castle; 5) Norwell
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Brownstown; 2) Sullivan; 3) Brebeuf;
the South Semi-State: 4) Connersville; 5) Beech Grove
Here are my predictions for each sectional in 3A.
17. at HANOVER CENTRAL: Calumet-$40; Hanover Central-35; Lighthouse CPA-25.
Comments: Perhaps the weakest sectional in 3A. Lighthouse and Calumet have played tougher schedules than the rest of the group. Lighthouse defeated Calumet by four points during the year. Calumet, in turn, won at HC by six points in late January . Any of the three could win here.
18. at KANKAKEE VALLEY: Culver Academy-$60; Kankakee Valley-40.
Comments: This is a very weak 5-team group. KV has the home floor but Culver has played a much tougher schedule. I believe the latter will prevail.
19. at MISHAWAKA MARIAN: Mishawaka Marian-$45; Glenn-40; S.B.St.Joseph-15.
Comments: A great draw for Marian. They drew a bye and will play a team with a losing record in the semi-final. Glenn on the other hand will have to get by two solid South Bend teams in order to meet Marian in the final. In late January Glenn, playing at home, edged Marian by four points. But, I think Marian will get the job done this time.
20. at MACONAQUAH: Peru-$40; Maconaquah-35; Twin Lakes-15; Western-10.
Comments: This group of teams almost always is a toss-up with lots of long-time rivalries and lots of parity. That certainly is the case again this year. Five teams are well above .500. The four strongest teams, in my opinion are all in the same bracket. I'm going to stick with the Peru Tigers to win their first sectional since 2009.
21. at WAWASEE: Northwood-$90; West Noble-10.
Comments: Defending champ Northwood will be going for their third title in a row and should get it. West Noble is their strongest challenger. NW defeated WN by eight points in early February. NW has won a sectional in 7 of the last 10 years.
22. at GARRETT: Leo-$65; F.W.Concordia-20; F.W.Dwenger-15..
Comments: Leo again has a sparkling record and is the defending champs from the prior two years. They are the definite favorites here, but might face a stiff test in the final from either Concordia or Dwenger. They defeated Concordia by four points in late November. And they scored another four point win over Dwenger just a few days ago. Leo is fortunate that they don't have to play both of those teams.
23. at NORWELL: Norwell-$75; Oak Hill-25.
Comments: The Norwell Knights have had an outstanding season and will be playing on their home floor. They rate as a solid favorite here. They stumbled early in the season at Mississinewa, but I don't see that happening again. The other top contender here is Oak Hill. But Norwell won at the Hill by 12 points in early December.
24. at NEW CASTLE: New Castle-70; Jay County-20; Hamilton Heights-10.
Comments: New Castle rates as a big favorite here. Jay County and Hamilton Heights appear to be their toughest competition. NC won at HH by three points in early December. And then they defeated Jay by 12 points a few days later.
25. at FRANKFORT: Crawfordsville-$50; Danville-$40; Tri-West-10.
Comments: Danville, and Crawfordsville are the elite teams here and they are in opposite brackets. Danvile has played a much tougher schedule. But just a few days ago Crawfordsville, playing at home, dumped Danville by 12 points. And don't overlook Tri-West. They have also dealt with a difficult schedule. They have split two games with Danville and came within five points of Crawfordsville in early February.
26. at EDGEWOOD: Brownstown-$45; Northview-40; West Vigo-10; Edgewood-5.
Comments: A likely championship game between Brownstown and Northview should be a treat for all the fans who are able to see it. Brownstown has played a stronger schedule and rates as the favorite. And they drew a bye. Northview won this sectional last year and, in the process, edged Brownstown by two points.
27. at LEBANON:: Brebeuf-$40;; Guerin 30; Lebanon-20; Idols Chatard-10.
Comments: This is a solid 3A group. Guerin and Brebeuf have player much tougher schedules than the rest of the group. Lebanon is on their home floor. During the year, Guerin defeated Lebanon. But then Chatard beat Guerin. But Guerin defeated Brebeuf who, subsequently defeated Chatard. So, this site is basically a toss-up among those four squads.
28. at SPEEDWAY : Beech Grove-$80; Indpls.Washington-15; Indpls.Ritter-5.
Comments: Beech Grove is a solid favorite here. They have defeated Washington, Speedway, and Ritter by a combined total of 67 points ! It's good to see Washington relevant again. Their 16 victories is the most they've had since 1995.
29. at CONNERSVILLE: Connersville-$40; Greensburg-35;.Franklin County-15; Lawrenceburg-10.
Comments: This is a darn good group of teams. Five are well above .500. and are all more than capable of winning here. Connersville gets the nod with their home floor advantage. The title may be determined with the first-round matchup between the Spartans and old rival Greensburg. They met in early January at Connersivlle with the Spartans winning by two points. Connersville won this sectional last year by defeating GB in the title game. Two years ago, the outcome was just the opposite.
30. at SALEM: North Harrison-$45; Silver Creek-25; Scottsburg-20; Corydon-10.
Comments: North Harrison appears to be a solid favorite to finally unseat Silver Creek as the kingpin of this sectional. NH was undefeated against this field, including a 19 point win at SC back in December. But SC has had their moments this year, as has Scottsburg and Corydon. SC snd Scottsburg have played a much tougher schedule than North Harrison.
31. at PRINCETON: Sullivan-$80; Washington-20.
Comments: This is really a weak group. Sullivan has an excellent chance to win their second straight sectional after what was a ten year drought. Washington, who has played a much tougher schedule, appears to be the only potential roadblock.
32. at BOONVILLE: Heritage Hills-$40; Evans.Bosse-35; Evansville Memorial--25..
Comments: Bosse and Heritage Hills once again are the class of this field. Even though neither is as strong as they have been recently. HH has won the last two sectionals, defeating Bosse both times in the process. Memorial cannot be ignored here. They played HH and Bosse tough during the regular season.
