Fans,
Shown below are my 61st annual state tournament predictions for 2A. (3A and 4A will be posted soon.). For each class, I’ve shown my state champion selection, as well as the top five contenders from each of the two semi-state areas.
Again this year, I’ve hypothetically allocated $100 to each sectional. I then asked myself if I were to bet that amount of money on each sectional, how would I distribute this amount among the teams that I feel have any chance of winning. This provides a better measuring stick for more specifically differentiating the chances of each of the sectional contenders.
Tournament Prediction “History”-----last year I predicted 79% of the sectional games correctly. Sectional champions: I picked only 31 of 64 correctly. For the entire tournament, 2013 was my best year with 81.5% of all games being picked correctly. My worst year was my first year, 1962, when I only got 63.5% of the games correct.
And, as always, a big Thank You to John Harrell’s great website for providing so much useful data in such an easily retrievable format !
(Note: References to records, winning streaks, etc. are usually based on data as of
February 19th.)
Enjoy the games!
Dan
CLASS 2A
Class Champion: Fort Wayne Blackhawk
Top 5 Contenders From 1) F.W.Blackhawk; 2) Central Noble; 3) Eastside;
the North Semi-State: 4) Monroe Central; 5) Wapahani
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Linton; 2) So.Spencer; 3) Eastern Hancock;
the South Semi-State: 4) Northeastern ;5) University
Here are my predictions for each sectional in 2A along with a few comments.
33. at WHITING: Lake Station-$45, Illiana-40, Hammond Noll-15..
Comments: This is a solid group of teams. Lake Station has had a fairy tale season. However,
they've stumbled of late by losing three straight. Included was a 3 point loss to Illiana.
These two will likely meet in the final. But don't count out traditional contenders Noll and Andrean. The latter has played a much tougher schedule than anyone else here.
34. at NORTH JUDSON: Boone Grove-$35; North Judson-30; Westville-25; Hebron-10.
Comments: Four teams with winning records here. Any of the four could win this thing. And don't overlook S.B.Career Academy. Westville and Boone Grove split two games during the season. B.G. also defeated North Judson and Hebron.. Hebron also defeated Judson.
35. at WESTVIEW: Central Noble-$50; Eastside-45; Fairfield-5.
Comments: The rubber match between Central Noble and Eastside should highlight this sectional. If the form charts hold-up, they will meet in a semifinal game. These are two of the best in 2A. Whoever wins here will be one of the strong favorites to win the entire 2A championship. CN defeated Eastside by 18 points on January 15. Six days later Eastside defeated CN by eight points. CN has not won a sectional since 2017. Eastside hasn't won since 2010 ! A decent Fairfield squad will likely meet the winner in the title game.
36. at BLUFFTON: Ft.Wayne Blackhawk-$100
Comments: The defending 2A champs just keep rolling along. It is doubtful that they will be tested in sectional play.
37. at WINAMAC: Cass-$35; Rochester-30; Rensselaer-25; Winamac-10.
Comments: This is a weak , but very balanced group. I give the nod to Cass due to the tougher schedule they play. Not many games were played during the season to help make a judgment here. Whoever wins this sectional isn't likely to last long at the regional level.
38. at WESTERN BOONE: Carroll-$60; Clinton Prairie-40.
Comments: Another great season for the Carroll Cougars. Will they be able to cap it off with a sectional title. Last year, they fell short by one point in the sectional final. This year, their only test will probably be a rematch with Clinton Prairie. These two played a great game in mid-January with Carroll winning by a single point. That was at Carroll. Can Carroll hold off Prairie on a neutral court.?
39. at TIPTON: Tipton-$80; Madison-Grant-20.
Comments: A strong schedule and home court advantage give Tipton a big advantage over an otherwise subpar group.
40. at ALEXANDRIA: Monroe Central-$35; Wapahani-30; Lapel-20;Frankton-10;Winchester-5.
Comments: This is a real solid group that should produce some really exciting games. Five teams with winning records here, including undefeated Monroe Central. A semi-final between MC and Wapahani might be the main attraction. MC defeated Wapahani by one point in mid-February. But don't be shocked if a solid Lapel (who plays a much tougher schedule), team upsets the winner of that game in the sectional final.
41. at HAGERSTOWN: Eastern Hancock-$60; Northeastern-40.
Comments: For the last 2-3 years, Eastern Hancock has unsuccessfully been trying to get by a strong Shenandoah squad. Three of the last four years, EH has exited the tourney after playing the Raiders. Now that 'Doah is down a bit, this is the big chance for EH. But they will have to fend off an ever improving Northeastern squad. NE lost at EH by four points in early December. Since then, NE has lost only three times--all to 3A and 4A schools. I'm still going to stick with Eastern Hancock to win their first sectional since 2008.
42. at PARK-TUDOR: University-$35; Park-Tudor-30; Covenant Chris.-25;.Heritage Chris.-10
Comments. Lots of parity here. Park-Tudor has home court advantage. Heritage Christian has Myles Colvin. University has a bye. All three of these teams plus Covenant Christian are legitimate contenders. University has beaten all three of the others mentioned. I'll stick with them.
43. at SOUTH PUTNAM: North Putnam-$40; Southmont-35; Parke Heritage-25
Comments: Parke Heritage is the defending champion here. Their record is a bit misleading due to star Christian Johnson missing 8-9 games during the year. He is now back. Still, North Put looks like the team to beat at this time. They lost in early November to the other strong contender Southmont by six points. That game was at Southmont. Then in mid-December, North Put edged Parke Heritage by four points.
44. at SOUTH RIPLEY: South Decatur-$35; So.Ripley-30;Triton Central-20; No.Decatur-15.
Comments: Basically four .500-type teams here that are all pretty evenly matched. Any of the four could win here without it being a surprise.
45. at SOUTHWESTERN (Hanover): Southwestern-$60; Providence-40
Comments: This looks like a two-horse race between Providence and the host school. Providence won at SW by one point in early January. SW has won this sectional three o f the last four years. The past two years, the finale has featured them against Providence. SW won last year. Providence won in 2020.
46. at TELL CITY: Eastern (Pekin)-$45; Paoli-40; Perry Central-15.
Comments: The Eastern Musketeers will be seeking their first sectional crown since 2015. And they stand a good chance of getting it. But, they'll likely have to beat both of the top contenders--Perry Central and Paoli. Eastern thumped Paoli by 17 points in mid-January. But, that was at Eastern. Paoli, on the other hand, has won two sectional titles in the last three years.
47.at NORTH KNOX: Linton-$85; South Knox-10; North Knox-5.
Comments: Linton will be going for their fourth straight sectional crown and are a big favorite here. They have defeated the other four schools here by a cumulative margin of 117 points!
48. at SOUTHRIDGE: So.Spencer-$50; Southridge-20; Evans.Mater Dei-15; Forest Park-10; North Posey-5.
Comments: This is an solid group of teams. However, South Spencer appears to be the clear favorite at this time. But watch out for the host school Southbridge. They upset Spencer by two points a few days ago. They also upset Spencer in last year's sectional title game.
Shown below are my 61st annual state tournament predictions for 2A. (3A and 4A will be posted soon.). For each class, I’ve shown my state champion selection, as well as the top five contenders from each of the two semi-state areas.
Again this year, I’ve hypothetically allocated $100 to each sectional. I then asked myself if I were to bet that amount of money on each sectional, how would I distribute this amount among the teams that I feel have any chance of winning. This provides a better measuring stick for more specifically differentiating the chances of each of the sectional contenders.
Tournament Prediction “History”-----last year I predicted 79% of the sectional games correctly. Sectional champions: I picked only 31 of 64 correctly. For the entire tournament, 2013 was my best year with 81.5% of all games being picked correctly. My worst year was my first year, 1962, when I only got 63.5% of the games correct.
And, as always, a big Thank You to John Harrell’s great website for providing so much useful data in such an easily retrievable format !
(Note: References to records, winning streaks, etc. are usually based on data as of
February 19th.)
Enjoy the games!
Dan
CLASS 2A
Class Champion: Fort Wayne Blackhawk
Top 5 Contenders From 1) F.W.Blackhawk; 2) Central Noble; 3) Eastside;
the North Semi-State: 4) Monroe Central; 5) Wapahani
Top 5 Contenders From 1) Linton; 2) So.Spencer; 3) Eastern Hancock;
the South Semi-State: 4) Northeastern ;5) University
Here are my predictions for each sectional in 2A along with a few comments.
33. at WHITING: Lake Station-$45, Illiana-40, Hammond Noll-15..
Comments: This is a solid group of teams. Lake Station has had a fairy tale season. However,
they've stumbled of late by losing three straight. Included was a 3 point loss to Illiana.
These two will likely meet in the final. But don't count out traditional contenders Noll and Andrean. The latter has played a much tougher schedule than anyone else here.
34. at NORTH JUDSON: Boone Grove-$35; North Judson-30; Westville-25; Hebron-10.
Comments: Four teams with winning records here. Any of the four could win this thing. And don't overlook S.B.Career Academy. Westville and Boone Grove split two games during the season. B.G. also defeated North Judson and Hebron.. Hebron also defeated Judson.
35. at WESTVIEW: Central Noble-$50; Eastside-45; Fairfield-5.
Comments: The rubber match between Central Noble and Eastside should highlight this sectional. If the form charts hold-up, they will meet in a semifinal game. These are two of the best in 2A. Whoever wins here will be one of the strong favorites to win the entire 2A championship. CN defeated Eastside by 18 points on January 15. Six days later Eastside defeated CN by eight points. CN has not won a sectional since 2017. Eastside hasn't won since 2010 ! A decent Fairfield squad will likely meet the winner in the title game.
36. at BLUFFTON: Ft.Wayne Blackhawk-$100
Comments: The defending 2A champs just keep rolling along. It is doubtful that they will be tested in sectional play.
37. at WINAMAC: Cass-$35; Rochester-30; Rensselaer-25; Winamac-10.
Comments: This is a weak , but very balanced group. I give the nod to Cass due to the tougher schedule they play. Not many games were played during the season to help make a judgment here. Whoever wins this sectional isn't likely to last long at the regional level.
38. at WESTERN BOONE: Carroll-$60; Clinton Prairie-40.
Comments: Another great season for the Carroll Cougars. Will they be able to cap it off with a sectional title. Last year, they fell short by one point in the sectional final. This year, their only test will probably be a rematch with Clinton Prairie. These two played a great game in mid-January with Carroll winning by a single point. That was at Carroll. Can Carroll hold off Prairie on a neutral court.?
39. at TIPTON: Tipton-$80; Madison-Grant-20.
Comments: A strong schedule and home court advantage give Tipton a big advantage over an otherwise subpar group.
40. at ALEXANDRIA: Monroe Central-$35; Wapahani-30; Lapel-20;Frankton-10;Winchester-5.
Comments: This is a real solid group that should produce some really exciting games. Five teams with winning records here, including undefeated Monroe Central. A semi-final between MC and Wapahani might be the main attraction. MC defeated Wapahani by one point in mid-February. But don't be shocked if a solid Lapel (who plays a much tougher schedule), team upsets the winner of that game in the sectional final.
41. at HAGERSTOWN: Eastern Hancock-$60; Northeastern-40.
Comments: For the last 2-3 years, Eastern Hancock has unsuccessfully been trying to get by a strong Shenandoah squad. Three of the last four years, EH has exited the tourney after playing the Raiders. Now that 'Doah is down a bit, this is the big chance for EH. But they will have to fend off an ever improving Northeastern squad. NE lost at EH by four points in early December. Since then, NE has lost only three times--all to 3A and 4A schools. I'm still going to stick with Eastern Hancock to win their first sectional since 2008.
42. at PARK-TUDOR: University-$35; Park-Tudor-30; Covenant Chris.-25;.Heritage Chris.-10
Comments. Lots of parity here. Park-Tudor has home court advantage. Heritage Christian has Myles Colvin. University has a bye. All three of these teams plus Covenant Christian are legitimate contenders. University has beaten all three of the others mentioned. I'll stick with them.
43. at SOUTH PUTNAM: North Putnam-$40; Southmont-35; Parke Heritage-25
Comments: Parke Heritage is the defending champion here. Their record is a bit misleading due to star Christian Johnson missing 8-9 games during the year. He is now back. Still, North Put looks like the team to beat at this time. They lost in early November to the other strong contender Southmont by six points. That game was at Southmont. Then in mid-December, North Put edged Parke Heritage by four points.
44. at SOUTH RIPLEY: South Decatur-$35; So.Ripley-30;Triton Central-20; No.Decatur-15.
Comments: Basically four .500-type teams here that are all pretty evenly matched. Any of the four could win here without it being a surprise.
45. at SOUTHWESTERN (Hanover): Southwestern-$60; Providence-40
Comments: This looks like a two-horse race between Providence and the host school. Providence won at SW by one point in early January. SW has won this sectional three o f the last four years. The past two years, the finale has featured them against Providence. SW won last year. Providence won in 2020.
46. at TELL CITY: Eastern (Pekin)-$45; Paoli-40; Perry Central-15.
Comments: The Eastern Musketeers will be seeking their first sectional crown since 2015. And they stand a good chance of getting it. But, they'll likely have to beat both of the top contenders--Perry Central and Paoli. Eastern thumped Paoli by 17 points in mid-January. But, that was at Eastern. Paoli, on the other hand, has won two sectional titles in the last three years.
47.at NORTH KNOX: Linton-$85; South Knox-10; North Knox-5.
Comments: Linton will be going for their fourth straight sectional crown and are a big favorite here. They have defeated the other four schools here by a cumulative margin of 117 points!
48. at SOUTHRIDGE: So.Spencer-$50; Southridge-20; Evans.Mater Dei-15; Forest Park-10; North Posey-5.
Comments: This is an solid group of teams. However, South Spencer appears to be the clear favorite at this time. But watch out for the host school Southbridge. They upset Spencer by two points a few days ago. They also upset Spencer in last year's sectional title game.
